Only Sony knows the real cost.

That doesn't sound right. The development budget is probably 20M.

maybe they're factoring in marketing?  idk with the superbowl ad that's the only way I can imagine it getting close to this

While possible, from that comment it's impossible to draw exactly this conclusion.

More for a prequel than GoW3?

Last number I saw was that the retailer gets $15 from a $60 game:

As you can see, for a typical console-based video game that costs U.S. $60:

• $15 goes to Retailers: eg: GameStop, Electronic Boutique, Walmart, Amazon
• $7 goes to Returns/PP/MDF: Returns are money paid-out to retailers for product returns. PP stands for “price-protection” which is money paid back through the chain if/when the publisher reduces the video game’s price. MDF stands for  ‘Marketing Development Funds” which are paid to retailers for promotions such as TV ads, local flyers, and in-store marketing displays.
• $4 goes to Distribution/COGs: Distribution = shipping and warehousing. COGs = Cost of goods sale. ie: the cost of the physical DVD, manufacturing, the instruction manual and the case.
• $7  Platform Royalty Fee: For every game sold approximately $7 goes to Microsoft, Sony or Nintendo, as applicable, for whatever platform the game plays on – eg: Xbox 360, PS3, Wii.
• $27 goes to the Publisher. Unfortunately this $27 is not further broken down to show how much of the $27 typically goes to independent developers. The amount paid to independant video game developers can be anywhere from 10% to 70% of the amount paid to the publisher – but often only after the publisher has first recouped any advances paid to such third party developers.

There was no superbowl advertisement. It aired online (remember only a few million people watch it online) and it must have cost much less than a million. It got the same exposure it would have received if it aired on the relatively unknown show Arrow and I'm sure that can't be more than a few thousands of dollars (nowhere near a million). If anyone has any more information on this, please enlighten us, but let's not call it a superbowl ad, when it didn't air on CBS.

The super bowl ad was only online so it couldn't cost that much.

$25 million for development and another $25 million for marketing seem about right. Also remember Santa Monica split in to 2 teams right after GoW III released. So less people worked on Ascension because engine was already done.

'middle' was interpreted as 50 million? Daily reminder that these people get paid for this level of journalism.