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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter On Next-Gen. NeXbox and Sony will be a success, WiiU crappy product

Kaizar on 10 April 2013
Metroid33slayer said:
Kaizar said:
platformmaster918 said:
Nem said:

Well... i think they are mistaken about the wii U. I think it will sell like crazy, but it really needs to redesign that gamepad to feel slicker and a price drop when the new mario kart and mario 3D come out. In those conditions the Wii U sales will soar.

Now, as far as developers go, they dont seem to care. It seemed like they threw Nintendo under the BUS before they could even have a chance, so i think it reaches a point where Nintendo cant really count on anyone but themselves. They need to expand those development studios. Also, Nintendo siftware sells really good, so thats more money they can cash in.
The 3DS will give them some money aswell but i dont expect the Wii U to do that since they need to slash the price by the end of the year.
Will iwata survive? I dont know to be honest, he might not.

 

Now, Microsoft is in for arude awakening. I dont think they will split market with Sony. But, we shall see.

yeah my guess (and it is just that because of the ridiculously limited amount of info on Xbox or PS4) is that WiiU will find a nice audience (60-80m) and PS4 will take a huge chunk of that PS360 audience as well as some others (100-120m) while Xbox will not be able to enjoy a Sony stumbling on its own arrogance and late entry and will therefore see their market shrink (50-70m).  Nintendo will continue to dominate handhelds (120-140m) and Sony will stick out the Vita and give it a little boost as the ultimate PS4 add-on (40-60m).  Like I said these are wild estimations especially the ones for Nextbox and PS4 since we don't know the price or subsciption fees but I just don't see Sony shrinking after they literally messed up EVERYTHING last gen that a console needs to be successful.


The DS has sold 140 million or higher.

The 3DS is selling much more in its first 2 years then the DS could ever imagine, and we don't even have Animal Crossing & Pokémon 6th Generation & Batman Arkham 3D & etc. yet.

Plus this year (2013) has 65 3D movie premieres in theaters and the 3DS has Glaases-free 3D with a future update to the eShop to download full 3D Movies, and a 3DS XL model.

The 3DS Life time sales will easily be 175 million to 200 million.

The 3ds will not get anywhere near 175m to 200m, 80 - 110 m is a reasonable guess. The DS sold  29.5, 29.0m & 28.0 million in its peak years of 07, 08, & 09 So far the 3ds has sold 13.2m in 2011 and 13.9m in 2012 and even with pokemon the 3ds will likely not break 16m this year. You just have to accept that  3ds sales will never compete with the original ds.

You are comparing 3 years & 4 years & 5 years sales to the 3DS.

The 3DS has barely been out for 24 months now (March 27th 2011).



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Metroid33slayer on 10 April 2013
Kaizar said:
Metroid33slayer said:
Kaizar said:
platformmaster918 said:
Nem said:

Well... i think they are mistaken about the wii U. I think it will sell like crazy, but it really needs to redesign that gamepad to feel slicker and a price drop when the new mario kart and mario 3D come out. In those conditions the Wii U sales will soar.

Now, as far as developers go, they dont seem to care. It seemed like they threw Nintendo under the BUS before they could even have a chance, so i think it reaches a point where Nintendo cant really count on anyone but themselves. They need to expand those development studios. Also, Nintendo siftware sells really good, so thats more money they can cash in.
The 3DS will give them some money aswell but i dont expect the Wii U to do that since they need to slash the price by the end of the year.
Will iwata survive? I dont know to be honest, he might not.

 

Now, Microsoft is in for arude awakening. I dont think they will split market with Sony. But, we shall see.

yeah my guess (and it is just that because of the ridiculously limited amount of info on Xbox or PS4) is that WiiU will find a nice audience (60-80m) and PS4 will take a huge chunk of that PS360 audience as well as some others (100-120m) while Xbox will not be able to enjoy a Sony stumbling on its own arrogance and late entry and will therefore see their market shrink (50-70m).  Nintendo will continue to dominate handhelds (120-140m) and Sony will stick out the Vita and give it a little boost as the ultimate PS4 add-on (40-60m).  Like I said these are wild estimations especially the ones for Nextbox and PS4 since we don't know the price or subsciption fees but I just don't see Sony shrinking after they literally messed up EVERYTHING last gen that a console needs to be successful.


The DS has sold 140 million or higher.

The 3DS is selling much more in its first 2 years then the DS could ever imagine, and we don't even have Animal Crossing & Pokémon 6th Generation & Batman Arkham 3D & etc. yet.

Plus this year (2013) has 65 3D movie premieres in theaters and the 3DS has Glaases-free 3D with a future update to the eShop to download full 3D Movies, and a 3DS XL model.

The 3DS Life time sales will easily be 175 million to 200 million.

The 3ds will not get anywhere near 175m to 200m, 80 - 110 m is a reasonable guess. The DS sold  29.5, 29.0m & 28.0 million in its peak years of 07, 08, & 09 So far the 3ds has sold 13.2m in 2011 and 13.9m in 2012 and even with pokemon the 3ds will likely not break 16m this year. You just have to accept that  3ds sales will never compete with the original ds.

You are comparing 3 years & 4 years & 5 years sales to the 3DS.

The 3DS has barely been out for 24 months now (March 27th 2011).

And you are assuming that 3ds is going get a 300 percentage boost in years 3,4 and 5 over years 1 & 2 just like DS did. It definately won't the Ds exploded like a phenomenom, the 3ds just doesn't have the freshness or the impact because it is basically more of the same. 3DS's first year is better because it is an established part of the DS brand a luxury the original DS didn't have. I doubt 3DS will ever get much more than the 13.6 million it has averaged in years 1 & 2. In its third year DS did 29.5m we are in the 3DS's third year and are you saying the 3DS will top that? that is about 580k a week! Of course it won't  it will  be up slightly on last year around 14-16 milllion due to the Poke'mon and Monster hunter boost. I bet with you that 3DS will never top 18.5 million in a calender year during it's life time. I couldn't decide between 18 or 19 so inbetween.



thismeintiel on 10 April 2013
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
I like the Sony 70/30 game/multimedia approach... well I expect more 90/10 but I can live with 70/30.

I'm a gamer... not a teenager watching MTV.


If you have 10 games and I have 10 games, but you have 5 tv shows and I have 10.... Who has the better gaming experience? They are equal.

Ratios like this mean jack unless there is context.  More media doesn't have to mean less games. 

Of course you would skew this to favor the NeXbox, even if it doesn't truthfully represent that comment.  What this would mean (and this is also going by both companies track records for the previous couple of years) is that Sony would release, say, 7 exclusives in one year (1-2 of which would be aimed at the casual market), while MS would release 5 exclusives a year (2-3 of which would be aimed at the casual market.)  On the other hand, MS would release, say, 5 apps or multimedia functions to Sony's 3.  Of course, Sony will have all the big ones (Netflix, Twiiter, Facebook, and a much better web browser), so I don't see a few exclusive multimedia apps/functions being a big deciding factor.  It wasn't this gen, either.

@ OP

What is it with Pachter and Skype?  The way he talks about it it sounds like he personally invented it.  Or maybe MS is just paying him to praise it.  Unfortunately for him and his predictions, Skype has been around for 10 years and it has never been, nor will it ever be, a major deciding factor in the purchase of an electronic device.  Don't get me wrong, it's a nice addition, but 100% not necessary.  And who's to say that you won't be able to access Skype or an equivalent through an app or the PS4's web browser.

Also, his statement about it and kids was just hilarious.  Could you imagine a kid 12 years old or younger talking to their parents in a Gamestop.  "Hmm, which system should we get, Johnny?"  "All I know is screw Mario, Zelda, Sackboy, and Nathan Drake, I WANT SKYPE!!"  Sorry, ain't going to happen in a million years.



 

theRepublic on 10 April 2013
RicardJulianti said:

I hope he[Pachter] realizes that when Iwata speaks about 1.1 billion, he is speaking in Yen which is only $11million USD. Nintendo might post that overall for the last FY even.

Knowing Pachter, he doesn't realize that at all.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
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Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
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theRepublic on 10 April 2013
dsgrue3 said:
"Having Skype on TV in the living room is a killer app. It will give parents a reason to adopt it. Kids will use it as an argument to buy the xbox."

Can't help but laugh as I shake my head at this.

Agreed.  I don't think Pachter knows what "killer app" means.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
3DS - Star Fox 64 3D (2011)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)

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Jaywood2010 on 10 April 2013
theRepublic said:
RicardJulianti said:

I hope he[Pachter] realizes that when Iwata speaks about 1.1 billion, he is speaking in Yen which is only $11million USD. Nintendo might post that overall for the last FY even.

Knowing Pachter, he doesn't realize that at all.

Watch the video.  He does know this.




       

Darc Requiem on 10 April 2013
JayWood2010 said:
theRepublic said:
RicardJulianti said:

I hope he[Pachter] realizes that when Iwata speaks about 1.1 billion, he is speaking in Yen which is only $11million USD. Nintendo might post that overall for the last FY even.

Knowing Pachter, he doesn't realize that at all.

Watch the video.  He does know this.

Pachter just can't be counted on for reasonable analysis of Nintendo. His Sony and MS analyst isn't much better, but his Nintendo analyst is just plain bad.



Jaywood2010 on 10 April 2013
Darc Requiem said:
JayWood2010 said:
theRepublic said:
RicardJulianti said:

I hope he[Pachter] realizes that when Iwata speaks about 1.1 billion, he is speaking in Yen which is only $11million USD. Nintendo might post that overall for the last FY even.

Knowing Pachter, he doesn't realize that at all.

Watch the video.  He does know this.

Pachter just can't be counted on for reasonable analysis of Nintendo. His Sony and MS analyst isn't much better, but his Nintendo analyst is just plain bad.


I'm not saying he did good or bad.  Time will tell, but we sure can't.    All I'm saying is watch the video because he did state the yen.




       

Darc Requiem on 10 April 2013
JayWood2010 said:
Darc Requiem said:
JayWood2010 said:
theRepublic said:
RicardJulianti said:

I hope he[Pachter] realizes that when Iwata speaks about 1.1 billion, he is speaking in Yen which is only $11million USD. Nintendo might post that overall for the last FY even.

Knowing Pachter, he doesn't realize that at all.

Watch the video.  He does know this.

Pachter just can't be counted on for reasonable analysis of Nintendo. His Sony and MS analyst isn't much better, but his Nintendo analyst is just plain bad.


I'm not saying he did good or bad.  Time will tell, but we sure can't.    All I'm saying is watch the video because he did state the yen.

I know he did, that's why I said he just can't be relied on for Nintendo analysis. Saying that he doesn't think Nintendo will make 11 million dollars is just plain foolish.



Kaizar on 10 April 2013
Metroid33slayer said:
Kaizar said:
Metroid33slayer said:
Kaizar said:
platformmaster918 said:
Nem said:

Well... i think they are mistaken about the wii U. I think it will sell like crazy, but it really needs to redesign that gamepad to feel slicker and a price drop when the new mario kart and mario 3D come out. In those conditions the Wii U sales will soar.

Now, as far as developers go, they dont seem to care. It seemed like they threw Nintendo under the BUS before they could even have a chance, so i think it reaches a point where Nintendo cant really count on anyone but themselves. They need to expand those development studios. Also, Nintendo siftware sells really good, so thats more money they can cash in.
The 3DS will give them some money aswell but i dont expect the Wii U to do that since they need to slash the price by the end of the year.
Will iwata survive? I dont know to be honest, he might not.

 

Now, Microsoft is in for arude awakening. I dont think they will split market with Sony. But, we shall see.

yeah my guess (and it is just that because of the ridiculously limited amount of info on Xbox or PS4) is that WiiU will find a nice audience (60-80m) and PS4 will take a huge chunk of that PS360 audience as well as some others (100-120m) while Xbox will not be able to enjoy a Sony stumbling on its own arrogance and late entry and will therefore see their market shrink (50-70m).  Nintendo will continue to dominate handhelds (120-140m) and Sony will stick out the Vita and give it a little boost as the ultimate PS4 add-on (40-60m).  Like I said these are wild estimations especially the ones for Nextbox and PS4 since we don't know the price or subsciption fees but I just don't see Sony shrinking after they literally messed up EVERYTHING last gen that a console needs to be successful.


The DS has sold 140 million or higher.

The 3DS is selling much more in its first 2 years then the DS could ever imagine, and we don't even have Animal Crossing & Pokémon 6th Generation & Batman Arkham 3D & etc. yet.

Plus this year (2013) has 65 3D movie premieres in theaters and the 3DS has Glaases-free 3D with a future update to the eShop to download full 3D Movies, and a 3DS XL model.

The 3DS Life time sales will easily be 175 million to 200 million.

The 3ds will not get anywhere near 175m to 200m, 80 - 110 m is a reasonable guess. The DS sold  29.5, 29.0m & 28.0 million in its peak years of 07, 08, & 09 So far the 3ds has sold 13.2m in 2011 and 13.9m in 2012 and even with pokemon the 3ds will likely not break 16m this year. You just have to accept that  3ds sales will never compete with the original ds.

You are comparing 3 years & 4 years & 5 years sales to the 3DS.

The 3DS has barely been out for 24 months now (March 27th 2011).

And you are assuming that 3ds is going get a 300 percentage boost in years 3,4 and 5 over years 1 & 2 just like DS did. It definately won't the Ds exploded like a phenomenom, the 3ds just doesn't have the freshness or the impact because it is basically more of the same. 3DS's first year is better because it is an established part of the DS brand a luxury the original DS didn't have. I doubt 3DS will ever get much more than the 13.6 million it has averaged in years 1 & 2. In its third year DS did 29.5m we are in the 3DS's third year and are you saying the 3DS will top that? that is about 580k a week! Of course it won't  it will  be up slightly on last year around 14-16 milllion due to the Poke'mon and Monster hunter boost. I bet with you that 3DS will never top 18.5 million in a calender year during it's life time. I couldn't decide between 18 or 19 so inbetween.


Actually the DSi & DSi XL took all those sales from the 3DS first year sales and then some. (all the luxury went straight to the DSi & DSi XL)

And you still have parents buying their kids the DSi instead of DSi XL/3DS/3DS XL.

And you forgot how much Animal Crossing & Pokémon New gen sales in the West, let alone the new Zelda IP for the 3DS, and Batman Arkham Origins 2 and Flipnote Studio 3D (with discontinued service to the DSiWare) and many others.