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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter On Next-Gen. NeXbox and Sony will be a success, WiiU crappy product

platformmaster918 said:
JayWood2010 said:




We are going to see eye to eye on this. And no not exactly.  Not everybody can just plug it into the front of their TV.  Some TV's has it in the back or the top, etc.People may have to manuever around to even access the HDMI port due to their entertainment centers or maybe they have it on a wall mount.  Tons of variables.  I was a computer technician to a pretty big company and I've dealt with typical users.  They know nothing about technology beyond turning it on and accessing what they have to use.

Of course even assuming that there are enough people that would not know to do it to make it a killer app there are still variables like

Is it that big of a deal to have it on the big screen instead of the computer?

Will enough people want to buy an Xbox specifically for that or would it be a secondary thing once you already have the console?

Sorry but I view capturing gameplay and putting it on youtube as a much more cumbersome process than plugging an HDMI cord into a TV and most new TVs have a Skype app that people could just use don't they?  I believe bluray players have them too nowadays so it's not even going to be the easiest way to do it.

I don't know if it will be a killer app.  I know Skype is huge and it is great that the NeXbox is most likkely going to use it.  That is great, however I just don't agree with your point is all.  Majority of the people will not plug their computer into a TV.

Anyways my view on the matter.  It is a nice feature and yes I could see it benifitting MSFT's plans of taking over the living room.  It can allow some neat things to happen like you sitting there watching  the superbowl and then you can say to Kinect "Xbox, skype friend so and so"  Xbox calls him up and bam.  He never had to leave the living room.  Or another feature could be to watch a movie together with somebody across the world.  They already do this on MSN and it wouldnt be doubtful if they do this with Skype as well.  Afterall they are all MSFT products.




       

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DanneSandin said:
I don't understand all the hate he's getting from Nintendo fans... It's time to wake up and smell the disaster that is the Wii U, and I'm a Nintendo fan myself, mind you. It's not going too well, and this is what Pachter sees and this is what he's basing his arguments on. I do believe it'll start to sell well as soon as they release some solid 1st party games (as evident by the bump the Wii U sales got by Lego City and MH3U), but that hasn't happened yet. And to think that Mario Kart or 3D Mario or Zelda is gonna sell 50m is just stupid. That's not gonna happen. This is a new GC or N64, and as a gamer, that's not bad at all! GC and N64 gave us some fantastic games! BUT as a company, that's not what Nintendo wants or needs, and that's not what will get investors to invest. So stop the needless hate and try to see the big picture for once. I'm tired of all the bashing Pachter gets around here. Sometimes he's way out of line, saying stupid ass shit things, but the last two threads I've seen about him he's been very reasonable, and the Nintendo fans being Unreasonable!!


Samething was said about the 3DS when it was 4 months & 5 months in its life spam.



I can't think of a financial analyst in any other industry that I've ever followed that seemed to understand less about the markets and products he covers. Patcher seems more like an enthusiast than an investment advisor.

His views on the market and how it might evolve are one thing - after all when 1 of 3 consoles is out and is still in its infancy it's all a guessing game. He is correct with some of Wii U's weaknesses and potential for it to fail (although he seems to overlook some strengths and things it may be able to do well).

Where he really fails is his utter lack of understanding of the economics of the companies he follows. I invest in Nintendo so I'll use them as an example:

1. A few months ago he went on and on about the 3DS price cut and how Nintendo was losing money on every sale. This was despite the fact that about two months earlier in the mid-year financial report Nintendo had reported that the costs were out and that every 3DS sold was now at a profit.

2. He made similar statements about Wii U software attachment rates. I can't be bothered to look for it but I believe he used 1 as the attachment. This was right after their quarterly report which shows it around 3. The amount of software that would have had to be in stores (assuming he was using retail sales) was something like 5 million units which would have been 50% of all software sold. It made 0 sense and was clearly wrong

3. He thinks there is no way Nintendo will turn a profit next year. This is despite the fact that they will come close and may even have turned a profit for FY2012 despite 3DS being sold at a loss for 1/2 a year and launch costs for WiiU. 3DS is likely to sell as much or more hardware this year as last and every sale will be at a profit. It's almost guaranteed to sell more software with a higher installed base and with Pokemon, MH4, AC (US and Europe), and Tomodochi coming out this FY. WiiU may flounder but they will be driving costs out of it to probably get it profitable or nearly so and software sales will go up. Add in the fact that depreciation expenses are going down (they are very high due to a lot of Capital spending for the the 3DS and WiiU) and it's very very unlikely they don't turn a profit. Tack on Japanese financial easing and it could be even better.

I could understand if he just said he's stay away from Nintendo because he thinks they are being poorly managed and investors will get better returns elsewhere. There is a strong case for that as evidenced by Nintendo selling near book value despite the best IP in the business. But to be so clearly wrong about verifiable facts and to constantly do such poor analysis is inexcusable. I'm just amazed anyone would listen to that guy for financial advice.



 

Nem said:

Well... i think they are mistaken about the wii U. I think it will sell like crazy, but it really needs to redesign that gamepad to feel slicker and a price drop when the new mario kart and mario 3D come out. In those conditions the Wii U sales will soar.

Now, as far as developers go, they dont seem to care. It seemed like they threw Nintendo under the BUS before they could even have a chance, so i think it reaches a point where Nintendo cant really count on anyone but themselves. They need to expand those development studios. Also, Nintendo siftware sells really good, so thats more money they can cash in.
The 3DS will give them some money aswell but i dont expect the Wii U to do that since they need to slash the price by the end of the year.
Will iwata survive? I dont know to be honest, he might not.

 

Now, Microsoft is in for arude awakening. I dont think they will split market with Sony. But, we shall see.


Actually the Wii U has great 3rd Party support from western developers.

3rd Party Japanese Developers mostly only make games for the 3DS these days, so Sony & MS can't rely on 3rd Party Japanese support anymore, but same goes for Wii U, for Japanese 3rd Party support.



platformmaster918 said:
Nem said:

Well... i think they are mistaken about the wii U. I think it will sell like crazy, but it really needs to redesign that gamepad to feel slicker and a price drop when the new mario kart and mario 3D come out. In those conditions the Wii U sales will soar.

Now, as far as developers go, they dont seem to care. It seemed like they threw Nintendo under the BUS before they could even have a chance, so i think it reaches a point where Nintendo cant really count on anyone but themselves. They need to expand those development studios. Also, Nintendo siftware sells really good, so thats more money they can cash in.
The 3DS will give them some money aswell but i dont expect the Wii U to do that since they need to slash the price by the end of the year.
Will iwata survive? I dont know to be honest, he might not.

 

Now, Microsoft is in for arude awakening. I dont think they will split market with Sony. But, we shall see.

yeah my guess (and it is just that because of the ridiculously limited amount of info on Xbox or PS4) is that WiiU will find a nice audience (60-80m) and PS4 will take a huge chunk of that PS360 audience as well as some others (100-120m) while Xbox will not be able to enjoy a Sony stumbling on its own arrogance and late entry and will therefore see their market shrink (50-70m).  Nintendo will continue to dominate handhelds (120-140m) and Sony will stick out the Vita and give it a little boost as the ultimate PS4 add-on (40-60m).  Like I said these are wild estimations especially the ones for Nextbox and PS4 since we don't know the price or subsciption fees but I just don't see Sony shrinking after they literally messed up EVERYTHING last gen that a console needs to be successful.


The DS has sold 140 million or higher.

The 3DS is selling much more in its first 2 years then the DS could ever imagine, and we don't even have Animal Crossing & Pokémon 6th Generation & Batman Arkham 3D & etc. yet.

Plus this year (2013) has 65 3D movie premieres in theaters and the 3DS has Glaases-free 3D with a future update to the eShop to download full 3D Movies, and a 3DS XL model.

The 3DS Life time sales will easily be 175 million to 200 million.



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Really REALLY think he's just trolling us now.

Does he honestly, truly think Nintendo won't make $$ this year? Pokemon.



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)

Otakumegane said:
Really REALLY think he's just trolling us now.

Does he honestly, truly think Nintendo won't make $$ this year? Pokemon.


Don't forget Bayonetta 2 & Pikmin 3 & Animal Crossing New Leaf in June & Lego City Undercover Prequel in several days (3DS exclusive) & Batman Arkham Origins 2 (only on 3DS with at least 50 million owners by October release & PS Vita with only 5 million or so owners by October) & Project X Zone & Wondeful 101 & Game and Wario & many more.



That means the Wii-U will be fine?



Well, WiiU is not bad, but, that aside, he probably has inside info on the 99 dollars NEXTBOX and all the rest.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

Kaizar said:
platformmaster918 said:
Nem said:

Well... i think they are mistaken about the wii U. I think it will sell like crazy, but it really needs to redesign that gamepad to feel slicker and a price drop when the new mario kart and mario 3D come out. In those conditions the Wii U sales will soar.

Now, as far as developers go, they dont seem to care. It seemed like they threw Nintendo under the BUS before they could even have a chance, so i think it reaches a point where Nintendo cant really count on anyone but themselves. They need to expand those development studios. Also, Nintendo siftware sells really good, so thats more money they can cash in.
The 3DS will give them some money aswell but i dont expect the Wii U to do that since they need to slash the price by the end of the year.
Will iwata survive? I dont know to be honest, he might not.

 

Now, Microsoft is in for arude awakening. I dont think they will split market with Sony. But, we shall see.

yeah my guess (and it is just that because of the ridiculously limited amount of info on Xbox or PS4) is that WiiU will find a nice audience (60-80m) and PS4 will take a huge chunk of that PS360 audience as well as some others (100-120m) while Xbox will not be able to enjoy a Sony stumbling on its own arrogance and late entry and will therefore see their market shrink (50-70m).  Nintendo will continue to dominate handhelds (120-140m) and Sony will stick out the Vita and give it a little boost as the ultimate PS4 add-on (40-60m).  Like I said these are wild estimations especially the ones for Nextbox and PS4 since we don't know the price or subsciption fees but I just don't see Sony shrinking after they literally messed up EVERYTHING last gen that a console needs to be successful.


The DS has sold 140 million or higher.

The 3DS is selling much more in its first 2 years then the DS could ever imagine, and we don't even have Animal Crossing & Pokémon 6th Generation & Batman Arkham 3D & etc. yet.

Plus this year (2013) has 65 3D movie premieres in theaters and the 3DS has Glaases-free 3D with a future update to the eShop to download full 3D Movies, and a 3DS XL model.

The 3DS Life time sales will easily be 175 million to 200 million.

The 3ds will not get anywhere near 175m to 200m, 80 - 110 m is a reasonable guess. The DS sold  29.5, 29.0m & 28.0 million in its peak years of 07, 08, & 09 So far the 3ds has sold 13.2m in 2011 and 13.9m in 2012 and even with pokemon the 3ds will likely not break 16m this year. You just have to accept that  3ds sales will never compete with the original ds.