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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter On Next-Gen. NeXbox and Sony will be a success, WiiU crappy product

RicardJulianti on 11 April 2013

What I find really funny is that the day after Pachter says it wouldn't be smart to invest in Nintendo, their stock shoots up 11%

Granted, that was due to the Yen, but anyone who invested in them prior is probably happy they did. If the yen stays where it's at/improves further, Nintendo stock is going to rise greatly once games come out in the West. More opportunities to earn more money = a smarter investment which leads to more investors.



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Kaizar on 11 April 2013
Mazty said:
Kaizar said:
Mazty said:

Lol er dude, ever done a basic science report before? Statement followed by reasoning is hardly something to criticise........Pokemon may sell well. The 3DS may be the best selling handheld this year but ultimately will those two things generate the revenue required? I don't believe they will, and being the best selling "console" (its a handheld, not a static console, ergo bit of a arbitrary comparison) when the others are at the end of their run is hardly anything to be declared as a success, or a successful revenue stream.

As I said, the Wii U currently has R&D costs to recooperate, and is being sold at a lost. Ironically the low sales may help negate the latter part, but low sales will not help with the former. 


I'm guessing you don't know what the mark up value is on the Software on 3DS & Wii U, but especially 3DS software mark-up value.


It'll be high - any idea on the specific figure?


I was I knew exactly how high it is.

I do know that 3DS games have a suggested retail price of $10 to $40 by 3rd Parties right now, and that 4 GB Cartridge for 3DS have a suggested retail price of $19.99¢ to $39.99¢ from 3rd Parties. So the mark up value is clearly really high for a greedy company like Capcom to have a suggested Retail Price of $19.99¢ for a 4 GB cartidge game (Resident Evil: Revelations). And the manufacturing cost keeps getting so much cheaper with each year that goes by. Even the Wii Us 25 GB disc get sold for $29.99¢ to $59.99¢ depending on game development cost, despite knowing that it's starting out with a smaller install base during the Launch as with all Launch consoles, and with the competition selling all of their new games at $59.99¢. In fact a Wii U launch title was sold at $29.99¢ while several other Launch titles where sold at $39.99¢ at Launch.



Metroid33slayer on 11 April 2013
Kaizar said:
Metroid33slayer said:
Kaizar said:
Metroid33slayer said:
Kaizar said:
platformmaster918 said:
Nem said:

Well... i think they are mistaken about the wii U. I think it will sell like crazy, but it really needs to redesign that gamepad to feel slicker and a price drop when the new mario kart and mario 3D come out. In those conditions the Wii U sales will soar.

Now, as far as developers go, they dont seem to care. It seemed like they threw Nintendo under the BUS before they could even have a chance, so i think it reaches a point where Nintendo cant really count on anyone but themselves. They need to expand those development studios. Also, Nintendo siftware sells really good, so thats more money they can cash in.
The 3DS will give them some money aswell but i dont expect the Wii U to do that since they need to slash the price by the end of the year.
Will iwata survive? I dont know to be honest, he might not.

 

Now, Microsoft is in for arude awakening. I dont think they will split market with Sony. But, we shall see.

yeah my guess (and it is just that because of the ridiculously limited amount of info on Xbox or PS4) is that WiiU will find a nice audience (60-80m) and PS4 will take a huge chunk of that PS360 audience as well as some others (100-120m) while Xbox will not be able to enjoy a Sony stumbling on its own arrogance and late entry and will therefore see their market shrink (50-70m).  Nintendo will continue to dominate handhelds (120-140m) and Sony will stick out the Vita and give it a little boost as the ultimate PS4 add-on (40-60m).  Like I said these are wild estimations especially the ones for Nextbox and PS4 since we don't know the price or subsciption fees but I just don't see Sony shrinking after they literally messed up EVERYTHING last gen that a console needs to be successful.


The DS has sold 140 million or higher.

The 3DS is selling much more in its first 2 years then the DS could ever imagine, and we don't even have Animal Crossing & Pokémon 6th Generation & Batman Arkham 3D & etc. yet.

Plus this year (2013) has 65 3D movie premieres in theaters and the 3DS has Glaases-free 3D with a future update to the eShop to download full 3D Movies, and a 3DS XL model.

The 3DS Life time sales will easily be 175 million to 200 million.

The 3ds will not get anywhere near 175m to 200m, 80 - 110 m is a reasonable guess. The DS sold  29.5, 29.0m & 28.0 million in its peak years of 07, 08, & 09 So far the 3ds has sold 13.2m in 2011 and 13.9m in 2012 and even with pokemon the 3ds will likely not break 16m this year. You just have to accept that  3ds sales will never compete with the original ds.

You are comparing 3 years & 4 years & 5 years sales to the 3DS.

The 3DS has barely been out for 24 months now (March 27th 2011).

And you are assuming that 3ds is going get a 300 percentage boost in years 3,4 and 5 over years 1 & 2 just like DS did. It definately won't the Ds exploded like a phenomenom, the 3ds just doesn't have the freshness or the impact because it is basically more of the same. 3DS's first year is better because it is an established part of the DS brand a luxury the original DS didn't have. I doubt 3DS will ever get much more than the 13.6 million it has averaged in years 1 & 2. In its third year DS did 29.5m we are in the 3DS's third year and are you saying the 3DS will top that? that is about 580k a week! Of course it won't  it will  be up slightly on last year around 14-16 milllion due to the Poke'mon and Monster hunter boost. I bet with you that 3DS will never top 18.5 million in a calender year during it's life time. I couldn't decide between 18 or 19 so inbetween.


Actually the DSi & DSi XL took all those sales from the 3DS first year sales and then some. (all the luxury went straight to the DSi & DSi XL)

And you still have parents buying their kids the DSi instead of DSi XL/3DS/3DS XL.

And you forgot how much Animal Crossing & Pokémon New gen sales in the West, let alone the new Zelda IP for the 3DS, and Batman Arkham Origins 2 and Flipnote Studio 3D (with discontinued service to the DSiWare) and many others.

I haven't forgotten thats why i said it will be up on last year at 14-16 million. Those games arent going to turn 13.9 million of last year into 29.5m this year not in a million years. Luigi mansion 2 is as big as batman and zelda and hasn't boosted hardware at all. Like i said 3ds will likely never get past 18.5million in a year.



DieAppleDie on 11 April 2013

Tagged for the lulz from the future



Jumpin on 11 April 2013

Pachter is a fairly crappy analyst, even as far as fake analysts go.

He also thought 3DS was going to bomb and Vita was going to steal its market:

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/pachter-vita-will-rob-nintendo-market-share/03008

 

He's basicly a fraud and should not be quoted after nearly a decade of being wrong



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Dangerousjo44 on 11 April 2013

WHATS THAT I HEAR HERE COME'S BACK XBOX FOR 400 BOB!!LOL OOOOH PS4,WII U YOU N TROUBLE NOW LOL



thismeintiel on 11 April 2013
kowenicki said:
thismeintiel said:
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
I like the Sony 70/30 game/multimedia approach... well I expect more 90/10 but I can live with 70/30.

I'm a gamer... not a teenager watching MTV.


If you have 10 games and I have 10 games, but you have 5 tv shows and I have 10.... Who has the better gaming experience? They are equal.

Ratios like this mean jack unless there is context.  More media doesn't have to mean less games.

Of course you would skew this to favor the NeXbox, even if it doesn't truthfully represent that comment.  What this would mean (and this is also going by both companies track records for the previous couple of years) is that Sony would release, say, 7 exclusives in one year (1-2 of which would be aimed at the casual market), while MS would release 5 exclusives a year (2-3 of which would be aimed at the casual market.)  On the other hand, MS would release, say, 5 apps or multimedia functions to Sony's 3.  Of course, Sony will have all the big ones (Netflix, Twiiter, Facebook, and a much better web browser), so I don't see a few exclusive multimedia apps/functions being a big deciding factor.  It wasn't this gen, either.

@ OP

What is it with Pachter and Skype?  The way he talks about it it sounds like he personally invented it.  Or maybe MS is just paying him to praise it.  Unfortunately for him and his predictions, Skype has been around for 10 years and it has never been, nor will it ever be, a major deciding factor in the purchase of an electronic device.  Don't get me wrong, it's a nice addition, but 100% not necessary.  And who's to say that you won't be able to access Skype or an equivalent through an app or the PS4's web browser.

Also, his statement about it and kids was just hilarious.  Could you imagine a kid 12 years old or younger talking to their parents in a Gamestop.  "Hmm, which system should we get, Johnny?"  "All I know is screw Mario, Zelda, Sackboy, and Nathan Drake, I WANT SKYPE!!"  Sorry, ain't going to happen in a million years.

Lmao.  Your lack of self awareness is hilarious.

All I did was explain how ratios work.  I made no other ccomment.

Then its you that came in and YOU skew this in favour of the PS4 with actual facts about how this will look. Ridiculous. Nobody knows yet. You sound desperate.

Some odd comments too....

"Better browser will of course be on the PS4"? Why? The best current one is on the 360.

Current context for me is telling in a period where Sony has closed studios and MS has been opening new one and recruiting developers all over the place.   Why do you think Sony are kissing 3rd party developers butts at the minute?

 

Lol, we both know you skewed the ratios to favor MS. If we are talking about an overall pie to display focus, you simply gave MS a larger pie. My example shows what we would most likely see if those ratios prove to be true. Of course this isn't just using Pachter's analysis, but both company's recent track record, as well.

And I meant the PS4 will have much better browser compared to the PS3.  Probably should have been a bit clearer on that. Also, 3rd parties are kissing Sony's butt, not the other way around. Not surprised you would see it that way, though.



 

Jaywood2010 on 11 April 2013
DanneSandin said:
Kaizar said:
Mazty said:
JayWood2010 said:
Mazty said:

The 3DS doesn't matter BECAUSE it's sales won't be astronomical.

Do you really expect one game to carry Nintendo? Fair enough; I can't seee how one game will make 1.1 billion dollars as currently the Wii U is being sold at a lost and sure as hell won't have recouped it's R&D costs. 

You still don't get my point.  YOu originally said the 3DS didn't count and now you are saying why it won't.  My original statement was that they are both a part of nintendo and since then you have acknowledged that it is all I was saying.  Read my previous posts.  I don't have a prediction at this time, but I do predict pokemon to be in the top 3 games on a single platform this year and I do predict the 3DS to be the number one selling console this year by a wide margin.

As for the WiiU I have no prediction as of this moment.


Lol er dude, ever done a basic science report before? Statement followed by reasoning is hardly something to criticise........Pokemon may sell well. The 3DS may be the best selling handheld this year but ultimately will those two things generate the revenue required? I don't believe they will, and being the best selling "console" (its a handheld, not a static console, ergo bit of a arbitrary comparison) when the others are at the end of their run is hardly anything to be declared as a success, or a successful revenue stream.

As I said, the Wii U currently has R&D costs to recooperate, and is being sold at a lost. Ironically the low sales may help negate the latter part, but low sales will not help with the former. 


I'm guessing you don't know what the mark up value is on the Software on 3DS & Wii U, but especially 3DS software mark-up value.

A piece of friendly advice: don't try to argue with Mazty. It's impossible. He's so incredibly biased against Nintendo I would be surprised if he even admitted Wii or DS being successful consoles for Nintendo... I've tried arguing with him, but it leads nowhere. Not worth the energy. Seriously.


Completely agree with this statement.  This makes more sense than 99% of comments on this site.




       

aikohualda on 11 April 2013

michael pachter should go back to arco.....

yes im butthurt with what he says with nintendo... maybe wiiu will not be a success, but dang most of his predictions are awfully wrong



 

Mazty on 11 April 2013
Kaizar said:
Mazty said:
Kaizar said:
Mazty said:

Lol er dude, ever done a basic science report before? Statement followed by reasoning is hardly something to criticise........Pokemon may sell well. The 3DS may be the best selling handheld this year but ultimately will those two things generate the revenue required? I don't believe they will, and being the best selling "console" (its a handheld, not a static console, ergo bit of a arbitrary comparison) when the others are at the end of their run is hardly anything to be declared as a success, or a successful revenue stream.

As I said, the Wii U currently has R&D costs to recooperate, and is being sold at a lost. Ironically the low sales may help negate the latter part, but low sales will not help with the former. 


I'm guessing you don't know what the mark up value is on the Software on 3DS & Wii U, but especially 3DS software mark-up value.


It'll be high - any idea on the specific figure?


I was I knew exactly how high it is.

I do know that 3DS games have a suggested retail price of $10 to $40 by 3rd Parties right now, and that 4 GB Cartridge for 3DS have a suggested retail price of $19.99¢ to $39.99¢ from 3rd Parties. So the mark up value is clearly really high for a greedy company like Capcom to have a suggested Retail Price of $19.99¢ for a 4 GB cartidge game (Resident Evil: Revelations). And the manufacturing cost keeps getting so much cheaper with each year that goes by. Even the Wii Us 25 GB disc get sold for $29.99¢ to $59.99¢ depending on game development cost, despite knowing that it's starting out with a smaller install base during the Launch as with all Launch consoles, and with the competition selling all of their new games at $59.99¢. In fact a Wii U launch title was sold at $29.99¢ while several other Launch titles where sold at $39.99¢ at Launch.

Dude can you give me net profit of games rather than unsourced guess work? Again, 1.1 billion dollars is a lot to make.