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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter On Next-Gen. NeXbox and Sony will be a success, WiiU crappy product

Just go 3rd party Nintendo, I promise I'd buy all your products if you did!!



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Mazty said:
Kaizar said:
Mazty said:
Kaizar said:
Mazty said:

Lol er dude, ever done a basic science report before? Statement followed by reasoning is hardly something to criticise........Pokemon may sell well. The 3DS may be the best selling handheld this year but ultimately will those two things generate the revenue required? I don't believe they will, and being the best selling "console" (its a handheld, not a static console, ergo bit of a arbitrary comparison) when the others are at the end of their run is hardly anything to be declared as a success, or a successful revenue stream.

As I said, the Wii U currently has R&D costs to recooperate, and is being sold at a lost. Ironically the low sales may help negate the latter part, but low sales will not help with the former. 


I'm guessing you don't know what the mark up value is on the Software on 3DS & Wii U, but especially 3DS software mark-up value.


It'll be high - any idea on the specific figure?


I was I knew exactly how high it is.

I do know that 3DS games have a suggested retail price of $10 to $40 by 3rd Parties right now, and that 4 GB Cartridge for 3DS have a suggested retail price of $19.99¢ to $39.99¢ from 3rd Parties. So the mark up value is clearly really high for a greedy company like Capcom to have a suggested Retail Price of $19.99¢ for a 4 GB cartidge game (Resident Evil: Revelations). And the manufacturing cost keeps getting so much cheaper with each year that goes by. Even the Wii Us 25 GB disc get sold for $29.99¢ to $59.99¢ depending on game development cost, despite knowing that it's starting out with a smaller install base during the Launch as with all Launch consoles, and with the competition selling all of their new games at $59.99¢. In fact a Wii U launch title was sold at $29.99¢ while several other Launch titles where sold at $39.99¢ at Launch.

Dude can you give me net profit of games rather than unsourced guess work? Again, 1.1 billion dollars is a lot to make. 


Considerering Nintendo makes about 12% off of each game sold, Nintendo makes about $4.80 off every game sold.  

So with Pokemon Black/White  Nintendo roughly made this abount $72,000,000.  It is an estimate but their you go.  Just do a little math and you will get your answer.  Now I'd appreciate it if you stopped argueing in here when you aren't really bringing up anything in the first place.




       

ethomaz said:
I like the Sony 70/30 game/multimedia approach... well I expect more 90/10 but I can live with 70/30.

I'm a gamer... not a teenager watching MTV.


70/30 is perfect for me.



JayWood2010 said:
Mazty said:

Dude can you give me net profit of games rather than unsourced guess work? Again, 1.1 billion dollars is a lot to make. 


Considerering Nintendo makes about 12% off of each game sold, Nintendo makes about $4.80 off every game sold.  

So with Pokemon Black/White  Nintendo roughly made this abount $72,000,000.  It is an estimate but their you go.  Just do a little math and you will get your answer.  Now I'd appreciate it if you stopped argueing in here when you aren't really bringing up anything in the first place.

Arguing? Who is arguing? I just asked for specifics.......Now that I have it, if we consider B&W to be a ball park figure of the next one, then they are still going to be falling short of that $1.1 billion unless they can get more consoles, portable and static, out of the door with a high game adoption rate. 

What I'm bringing up is that saying Nintendo won't reach $1.1 billion is quite reasonable when you look at the figures. Why do you have an issue with that??



RolStoppable said:
DanneSandin said:

That doesn't change the fact that what Pachter is observing now with Nintendo is any less right. His observations are right regarding Nintendo at their current state. He says 3DS will probably continue to sell around 15m a year, which seems reasonable enough, and that Wii U isn't doing to well, which it isn't.

And I can understand why Pachter thinks the Wii U is 2 years too late; had it come out in 2010 the whole tablet controller would still be new, and Nintendo would have caught up with MSony with regards to online services, and it would have been graphically on par with the PS360. Now, it's too little too late. I'm not saying that Pachter is right in thinking this, but I can see why he is thinking like that.

From a business point of view Wii U will not do as well as Wii, and will probably struggle to keep up with PS720 - and therefore it will be a bad investment to invest in, and it's this that Pachter is talking about. Is he wrong? Tell me truthfully, without side tracking about Pachter's thought on Wii HD and such; is Nintendo a good investment right now, and do you see it changing withing the short term? And this will probably be the biggest year for the 3DS with Pokémon and AC:NL releasing in the west, but after this year it'll probably decline in sales - perhaps not by much, but this year (or the next one) will be the high point of the 3DS, and the Western market haven't even caught on yet. Do you see Nintendo's fortune's improving here on?

It doesn't take a genius to observe that Nintendo isn't in a good state right now. Pachter stating the obvious is nothing he can be proud of. This is the man who suggested that Nintendo should sell the 3DS for $299. As an analyst, it would be good, if he actually got things right before they happen. What he's doing in regards to Nintendo is pretty much "a broken clock is right twice a day", because his outlook for Nintendo's home consoles has always been negative.

You can understand Pachter, because you hold similar ill-beliefs. A tablet controller wouldn't have caught on regardless of the timing. Thinking that a tablet controller is a good thing is the same as believing that consoles should ship with a mouse, because it is the popular input device for flash and browser games. Besides, the entire idea of catching up to Sony and Microsoft is so misguided when all that time it was Nintendo who was profiting. Nintendo has truly caught up now, because they have been throwing money out of the window.

Your final question is if Nintendo's situation is going to improve. To that I have to say yes, because they've already hit rock bottom, the yen is weakening, they have a period of big games ahead of them which will drive hardware and software sales, plus Sony and Microsoft aren't going to have smooth launch periods. Nintendo's stock isn't going to rise to heavens, but there's definitely potential to see gains. The stock just needs to be sold before third parties at large move into the eighth generation in full force and shun Nintendo.

I do agree that his statement that Nintendo should have sold the 3DS for $299 was really, really stupid - but that doesn't make all of his statements stupid.

You're basically saying that the tablet controller was a bad idea, right? "A tablet controller wouldn't have caught on regardless of the timing." In that sense you and Pachter actually shares the same opinion. He also thinks it's a bad idea. And when he's talking about catching up to MS and Sony it's clearly in regards of online services, which the Wii was severely lacking. And they might have caught up now, but when PS720 is released they might be left in the dust again, and people therefore wouldn't buy Wii U since the online (might) be much better on PS720. I think Pachter does have a point here; had Wii had a better online function they would have been in a better spot now.

So, basically, Nintendo could be a good investment in the short term? Before the 8th gen truly gets rolling?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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do people still take michael patcher seriously?



"Both Xbox and Sony will be successful with a split market." ..

This is the best prediction!!!!!!!!!..........

... only cause his more wrong most of the time LOL



 

RolStoppable said:
DanneSandin said:

I do agree that his statement that Nintendo should have sold the 3DS for $299 was really, really stupid - but that doesn't make all of his statements stupid.

You're basically saying that the tablet controller was a bad idea, right? "A tablet controller wouldn't have caught on regardless of the timing." In that sense you and Pachter actually shares the same opinion. He also thinks it's a bad idea. And when he's talking about catching up to MS and Sony it's clearly in regards of online services, which the Wii was severely lacking. And they might have caught up now, but when PS720 is released they might be left in the dust again, and people therefore wouldn't buy Wii U since the online (might) be much better on PS720. I think Pachter does have a point here; had Wii had a better online function they would have been in a better spot now.

So, basically, Nintendo could be a good investment in the short term? Before the 8th gen truly gets rolling?

Games are still more important than any online functions. Pachter can go on and on about Nintendo having to match Sony and Microsoft in terms of features, but he never mentions the most important thing: That Nintendo should expand their first party studios greatly to become a company that can sustain their platforms on their own. But Pachter has never really been interested in taking games into consideration, he still talks up features as if that is what sells consoles. Yes, if Nintendo had had better online, they might be in a better spot now. But if Nintendo had been able to produce more games on their own, that surely would have been much more important than any online features.

I think Nintendo's stock just went up 10% this week, so short term investments are probably not a bad idea. Animal Crossing and Pokémon for the 3DS, plus various big first party games for the Wii U in the next twelve months are guarantees to make Nintendo see some good hardware and software sales, at least in the short term. If the yen stays where it is now or weakens even further, there's more potential for gains, because the required price cut for Wii U hardware later this year won't have as much of a negative impact on the company's bottom line. Nintendo might not be a great company to invest in at the moment, but they are from being a terrible investment. We are about to enter a period of time where games roll out at a higher rate and that's always beneficial for a video game company.

I see 2 flaws with your first paragraph:

1) Some games actually needs a good online infrastructure to sell, like CoD and other popular multiplayer games, so by not having a good online capability Wii lost out on quite a few games and wasn't capable of building an online-following of sorts (like PS360 managed to do). Therefore; better online support=more games. Now, this probably wouldn't have made a whole lot of difference since Wii was so severely handicapped by its specs this might not have mattered too much... But still, it's a valid argument.

2) Nintendo tends to make the same kind of games, they tend to target the same kind of people. I like Nintendo's games, mind you, so it's not criticism as such. BUT, expanding and making more games doesn't necessarily equal more consoles sold since the games might cater to the same core audience. Why do you think PS360 ( and even more so PS1 and PS2) were so successful? They catered to a wide range of gamers, and that is something Nintendo's 1st party probably won't be able to replicate on a larger scale.

By and large, I agree with your second paragraph, and would like to add that Pachter is unnecessary anti-Nintendo many times, but he's not always wrong about their business practices.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

RolStoppable said:
DanneSandin said:

I see 2 flaws with your first paragraph:

1) Some games actually needs a good online infrastructure to sell, like CoD and other popular multiplayer games, so by not having a good online capability Wii lost out on quite a few games and wasn't capable of building an online-following of sorts (like PS360 managed to do). Therefore; better online support=more games. Now, this probably wouldn't have made a whole lot of difference since Wii was so severely handicapped by its specs this might not have mattered too much... But still, it's a valid argument.

2) Nintendo tends to make the same kind of games, they tend to target the same kind of people. I like Nintendo's games, mind you, so it's not criticism as such. BUT, expanding and making more games doesn't necessarily equal more consoles sold since the games might cater to the same core audience. Why do you think PS360 ( and even more so PS1 and PS2) were so successful? They catered to a wide range of gamers, and that is something Nintendo's 1st party probably won't be able to replicate on a larger scale.

By and large, I agree with your second paragraph, and would like to add that Pachter is unnecessary anti-Nintendo many times, but he's not always wrong about their business practices.

1) I don't think you believe that third party games would sell more Nintendo systems than Nintendo games do. More first party games would be better than more third party games.

2) Even with their limited capacity, Nintendo managed to sell 100 million Wiis. That's either proof that Nintendo's first party software is varied or, if Nintendo's games are not varied, that the demographics Nintendo reaches are very large. The PS3 and 360 both concentrated on a limited scope of genres, so this proves that commitment sustains sales. People who own the systems keep playing while more people get interested over time. Consider that even Halo 4 could move hardware. I fail to see how more Nintendo games would not lead to higher hardware sales as well as more satisfied long time owners.

1) I believe that if all consoles (Nintendo, Sony, MS) would start from scratch with the same specs and online features and they all got the same 3rd party support I believe Nintendo would sell the most because they have the best 1st party games, but 3rd party games would be a great complement and would help push Nintendo's console above and beyond that of Sony and MS. So 3rd party games is nothing sneeze at. It's quintessential. Wii is THE only console to ever win a generation without the best 3rd party line up, and that's a fact (excluding 1st and 2nd gen). I don't think a Nintendo only console would do too well if it didn't have something new like Wii had; without 3rd party support Nintendo is doomed to repeat N64 and GC.

2) More Nintendo games would indeed lead to more HW sales, I'm not arguing that. The question is, HOW much more would more N-games be able to push? Nintendo struck gold with Wii, and it's all thanks due to the Wiimote. It's not thanks to Mario, Zelda, Metroid or Pikmin. Wii's success is spelled motion control, so unless Nintendo can keep innovating the very way we play games and manage to "lure in" none-gamers they'll need 3rd party games. People who like CoD, Halo, God of War, Uncharted, Gran Turismo and other franchises would never considering buying a Nintendo exclusive console because they wouldn't have any games to play.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

He obviously hasn't played a Wii U, it's a great product. A screen on a controller is strange but Nintendo have put the buttons in the right places so that it's comfortable to use. There's just more games needed (it has some decent ones anyway) and it's all set.

And why must Sony focus on services that are available everywhere anyway, games are what will sell it. He's an idiot if he think skype or netflix will sell Xbox's or Playstations!



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018