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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict how long PS4 and XBox One will need to outsell WiiU - 14 weeks PS4, 52 X1

NeroPrototype said:
cunger said:
NeroPrototype said:
1 Month... Considering It will come with good games.


Not really relevant since wiiu will have more good exclusives at the time these guys launch.   So far the ps4 doesn't have any exclusives announced which will be big system sellers. Battlefield and Call of Duty will be much bigger system sellers than what Sony's first party has announced.


So far and correct me if i'm wrong, InFamous The Second son, KillZone, Deep Down are coming to the PS4 at launch.


Pretty sure that Deep Down is a long long way off and no confirmation of an exclusive...  Infamous and Killzone aren't huge systems sellers..  They're not Uncharted, 3d Mario , Zelda, or Halo.     Trust me.. If Call of Duty and Battlefied hit ps4 at launch Killzone will sell worse than those games. It's not a super huge franchise in the world of FPS games.



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cunger said:
NeroPrototype said:
cunger said:
NeroPrototype said:
1 Month... Considering It will come with good games.


Not really relevant since wiiu will have more good exclusives at the time these guys launch.   So far the ps4 doesn't have any exclusives announced which will be big system sellers. Battlefield and Call of Duty will be much bigger system sellers than what Sony's first party has announced.


So far and correct me if i'm wrong, InFamous The Second son, KillZone, Deep Down are coming to the PS4 at launch.


Pretty sure that Deep Down is a long long way off and no confirmation of an exclusive...  Infamous and Killzone aren't huge systems sellers..  They're not Uncharted, 3d Mario , Zelda, or Halo.     Trust me.. If Call of Duty and Battlefied hit ps4 at launch Killzone will sell worse than those games. It's not a super huge franchise in the world of FPS games.


The Wii U had nothing but ports and Nintendo Land for it's launch date. InFamous is a big game, I find it better than Uncharted and It's an exclusive after all, so yeah it will help to sell the PS4 and seeing what the PS4 have to offer once it comes out... I'm pretty sure it will do better than the Wii U. I'm not saying It'll be sky rocked, I'm saying it has more to give than Wii U. 

 

The big games of Nintendo (Metroid, Zelda, Pikmin, Smash Bros, etc.) Aren't even announced so I can bet you that they won't come out until next year, and the PS4 is coming this Year.



 

NeroPrototype said:
cunger said:
NeroPrototype said:
cunger said:
NeroPrototype said:
1 Month... Considering It will come with good games.


Not really relevant since wiiu will have more good exclusives at the time these guys launch.   So far the ps4 doesn't have any exclusives announced which will be big system sellers. Battlefield and Call of Duty will be much bigger system sellers than what Sony's first party has announced.


So far and correct me if i'm wrong, InFamous The Second son, KillZone, Deep Down are coming to the PS4 at launch.


Pretty sure that Deep Down is a long long way off and no confirmation of an exclusive...  Infamous and Killzone aren't huge systems sellers..  They're not Uncharted, 3d Mario , Zelda, or Halo.     Trust me.. If Call of Duty and Battlefied hit ps4 at launch Killzone will sell worse than those games. It's not a super huge franchise in the world of FPS games.


The Wii U had nothing but ports and Nintendo Land for it's launch date. InFamous is a big game, I find it better than Uncharted and It's an exclusive after all, so yeah it will help to sell the PS4 and seeing what the PS4 have to offer once it comes out... I'm pretty sure it will do better than the Wii U. I'm not saying It'll be sky rocked, I'm saying it has more to give than Wii U. 

 

The big games of Nintendo (Metroid, Zelda, Pikmin, Smash Bros, etc.) Aren't even announced so I can bet you that they won't come out until next year, and the PS4 is coming this Year.


I totally agree that the Wiiu had a weak launch.. My point is that it isn't relevant because they will have a better list of system sellers when PS4 launches. The average consumer isn't going to go to walmart and Christmas and even know or remember what Wiiu had at launch. It isn't relevant because they are buying a system at Christmas.  At that point wiiu will look attractive with New Super Mario Bros U, Wind Waker HD, Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2 and quite possible new Mario 3D and Mario Kart Wiiu. 


That's my point. I'm not trying to make a case for the wiiu having a great launch. It certainly did not. It's the same situation as the 3ds. Once they compelling software exists sales will pick up. Sales even picked up when average software like Monter Hunter 3 remakes, and Lego City game out. The Wiiu is going to sell well. It will meet in the middle between Gamecube and Wii IMO. Probably around 55 million to 60. And they will release their next system in 4 years as which point the Wiiu will be the market leader.



Will not pass Nintendo (Wii U will undercut M$ony with a price drop ala 3DS on Vita, & big advertising)

I predict this will be the lowest in overall console sales for a generation, since the ps/n64/saturn era. Nintendo near 55 mil M$ony could hit 50 ltd



It's going to sell better than either the 720 or PS4 at the end of the year thanks to the barrage of 1st party games they've been charging up, E3 showing off Mario Kart and Smash for early next year, and $100 price cut. 2014 might be even stronger for it.

After that, I don't see much of a future for the Wii U. About 100 - 150 weeks



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Weeks? I'd say years if I thought they could outsell the WiiU. I don't think they will outsell the Wii U, though.



Sorry, I didn't update for a horrible long time. Now all predictions are included in the OP.



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ps4 will beat it in two years
xbox one - i think it will come in last place.
but anything can happen



36 weeks for PS4.

109 weeks for Xbox One.



All Nintendo really had to do was swallow their pride and just build a box that third parties would like (decent, large upgrade over PS3/360, PC-like architecture) and IMO they wouldn't be caught.

EAD's games would be good no matter what hardware they were given, so their needs honestly should be secondary.


The reason the XB1/PS4 will catch and exceed the Wii U is because they will have such an overwhelming advantage in third party software and as a result simply be able to appeal to a wider audience.

I'll say about 58 weeks for the PS4 to overtake the Wii U. The main issue for the PS4/XB1 I think will be that games truly made for the next gen may take a little while to come out, but once gamers get a taste of next-gen, it's over.