Waits for some kind of rebuttal. I imagine that graph is difficult to argue with. You're an experienced expert. You can figure it out.
Waits for some kind of rebuttal. I imagine that graph is difficult to argue with. You're an experienced expert. You can figure it out.
| ShinMitsugi said: It doesn't matter why I chose to post on this thread. I just like to point out ill advised statements when I see them. Anybody who is experienced in stock trading wouldn't get so excited about a single day of gains of a company on the market. That person looks pretty unintelligent when those gains are lost the very next 2 days. Sort of makes that person look like they don't know what they're talking about. Then the person says how much the depreciated yen is helping Nintendo. However, on second thought, you make a comparative graph of Nintendo and the $/Yen's 12 month stock and currency market perperformance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=USDJPY%3DX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=NTDOY%2C+%5EN225%2C+&ql=1&c=%5EDJI and you think to yourself...wow, maybe there isn't a correlation. I also added the DOW and the NIKKEI just so you could see how poorly Nintendo has done despite the growing confidence in the global economy. Pretty concrete evidence in a lack of confidence in Nintendo considering the major Japanese and US composite exchanges rise while Nintendo falls. Let's remember kids, reactionary statements regarding the stock market....not a good idea. |
It's hard to argue against this. The 2 year and 5 year charts are even more depressing.
If I was a stock holder of Nintendo (thankfully I'm not), I'd be asking for blood, Iwata and his board of directors have driven the company's stock into the gutter.
Soundwave said:
If I was a stock holder of Nintendo (thankfully I'm not), I'd be asking for blood, Iwata and his board of directors have driven the company's stock into the gutter.
|
Actually you can. Take a look at the 5-year trend of Nintendo, and the US$ vs Yen. As the dollar weakened, so did Nintendo, very consistendly. Now, very recently, as the dollar strengthens (and yen weakens), Nintendo has made a signifiant gain. About 18% over last month.
So we're clear here, the topic of the thread is that the falling yen is good for Nintendo and the shares are rising accordingly. This isn't talking about whether Nintendo the company is in good shape or anything else. Of course there are other factors causing ups and downs in Nintendo's price, but weak yen is a positive influence, and the gains over the last month are significant. The graph that Shin posted only supports this.
I have no intention of engaging with Shin, he has about a dozen posts all just bashing Wii U and Nintendo. He's just looking to agitate, not have a meaningful discussion, and he doesn't stay on topic.

I think saying "Nintendo soars" is a bit hyperbolic though, clearly their stock looking at it over the past 2-5 years is not in good shape and yes the yen/dollar fluctuation is helping them, but look at the soaring Nikkei in comparison Nintendo's bump from the improving Japanese economy and the more favourable yen/dollar is rather modest actually.
If it wasn't for the yen/dollar improving for Japanese companies, Nintendo would probably be dropping even further, so at least there's that, but I'm not even sure if that's a great thing for Nintendo as it indicates more that the stock is only stabilizing a little bit due to outside factors, not because of company performance or policy shift.
In particular the pronunced overall drop in Nintendo's stock since last November's launch of Wii U is troubling. It shows that the investors are aware of the system and its problems, it's not something Nintendo has been able to quietly hide or deflect attention from. As such it probably means Nintendo stock will be getting hammered as long as the Wii U is not performing to par.
Which is why I wouldn't touch their stock with a 50 foot pole.
| Soundwave said: I think saying "Nintendo soars" is a bit hyperbolic though, clearly their stock looking at it over the past 2-5 years is not in good shape and yes the yen/dollar fluctuation is helping them, but look at the soaring Nikkei in comparison Nintendo's bump from the improving Japanese economy and the more favourable yen/dollar is rather modest actually. In particular the pronunced overall drop in Nintendo's stock since last November's launch of Wii U is troubling. It shows that the investors are aware of the system and its problems, it's not something Nintendo has been able to quietly hide or deflect attention from. As such it probably means Nintendo stock will be getting hammered as long as the Wii U is not performing to par. Which is why I wouldn't touch their stock with a 50 foot pole. |
I would call 18% soaring. If I can make 18% gains monthly on my investments I will soon be making these posts from my secret lair on a tropical island. I think I actually took the thread title from an article on one of the financial websites I read. And Nintendo actaully gained rapidly, much more than the Nikkei during the last month. Again, this isn't looking at the whole picture of Nintendo's situation. This is looking at the situation of the last few weeks. Good US financial info was released, the Yen dropped further, the Nikkei gained and Nintendo gained at twice the rate of the Nikkei.
Nintendo's drop over the last year or 3 years is another matter, as is their ability to recover. I'm confident in their ability to post large profits in the coming year, but that's a whole other topic.

TheLastStarFighter said:
I would call 18% soaring. If I can make 18% gains monthly on my investments I will soon be making these posts from my secret lair on a tropical island. I think I actually took the thread title from an article on one of the financial websites I read. And Nintendo actaully gained rapidly, much more than the Nikkei during the last month. Again, this isn't looking at the whole picture of Nintendo's situation. This is looking at the situation of the last few weeks. Good US financial info was released, the Yen dropped further, the Nikkei gained and Nintendo gained at twice the rate of the Nikkei. Nintendo's drop over the last year or 3 years is another matter, as is their ability to recover. I'm confident in their ability to post large profits in the coming year, but that's a whole other topic. |
Well right now a lot of stocks are booming. Obviously the stock market is recovering strongly (see the Dow hitting new highs), there are many stocks in this run that would net you a better return than Nintendo, which is still being weighed down by poor Wii U performance and missed 3DS sales targets in the West.
Sony stock is up quite a bit also.
Soundwave said:
Sony stock is up quite a bit also. |
Yeah, there are lots of booming stocks, but since this is a gaming site I stick to discussing those on here. I would have loved to have purchased some Sony in November. Man... such a return... I never expected that turnaround, that quickly. Sigh...

TheLastStarFighter said:
So we're clear here, the topic of the thread is that the falling yen is good for Nintendo and the shares are rising accordingly. This isn't talking about whether Nintendo the company is in good shape or anything else. Of course there are other factors causing ups and downs in Nintendo's price, but weak yen is a positive influence, and the gains over the last month are significant. The graph that Shin posted only supports this. I have no intention of engaging with Shin, he has about a dozen posts all just bashing Wii U and Nintendo. He's just looking to agitate, not have a meaningful discussion, and he doesn't stay on topic. |
You can't generate a correlation using only 1 month of data. It would have to be years. Simply for the purpose of showing you how nearsighted you are being, here is a 3 month chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=USDJPY%3DX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=NTDOY&ql=1 If you use a 1 month time horizon then, yes, perhaps there is a correlation, but if you look further back, it's clear there is not. The yen has been DEPRECIATING consistently and without much flucuation (not weakening as this is not a proper term. Does the yen have muscles?) since the beginning of 2013. During this same period, the value of Nintendo's stock fluctuated wildly.
FOR EXAMPLE:
On about Jan 6, Nintendo's shares fell from $13.50 per share all the way to $12.0. During this period, the yen depreciates from about $1.00/87yen to about $1.00/90yen.
On about Jan 29, Nintendo's shares fell from about $13.40 all the way to $11.50 by Feb 18. During this period, the yen depreciates from about $1.00/91yen to almost $1.00/94 yen.
Just look at that link above. It doesn't take a genius to see that there is not a correlation here (I'll make a proper analysis using data and not graphs if I need to). LSF, I am not hating Nintendo anymore. I am showing you that what you are saying is inaccurate. For the record, you shouldn't do a correlation over 3 months either. I'd do it over 5 or 10 years. I am just using the 3 month graph above to illustrate the recent swings in Nintendo's stock value.
TheLastStarFighter said:
I would call 18% soaring. If I can make 18% gains monthly on my investments I will soon be making these posts from my secret lair on a tropical island. I think I actually took the thread title from an article on one of the financial websites I read. And Nintendo actaully gained rapidly, much more than the Nikkei during the last month. Again, this isn't looking at the whole picture of Nintendo's situation. This is looking at the situation of the last few weeks. Good US financial info was released, the Yen dropped further, the Nikkei gained and Nintendo gained at twice the rate of the Nikkei. Nintendo's drop over the last year or 3 years is another matter, as is their ability to recover. I'm confident in their ability to post large profits in the coming year, but that's a whole other topic. |
I can take any stock on the market that has had a recent gain and say, "oh look, this stock rose 10% since last week!" But then you look over the last 12 months and you say....oh.....this stock (e.g. Nintendo has fallen almost 30% in 1 year) has been trending downward!
Oh look! Today Nintendo's stock is down AND the yen depreciated slightly. This MUST mean that there is a correlation here. One day of data is probably enough to make a correlation.