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Forums - Nintendo - Yen Plummets, Nintendo Soars!

ShinMitsugi said:

Based on your lack of any kind of response to my statements and your utter complete avoidance in providing any kind of credentials about yourself, I'm just going to assume until shown otherwise that you are conceding this discussion.  

Also, You say you're an astronaut. (unlikely)  Ironically, I live in Japan and teach many people who work for JAXA (Japanese Aeronautical Exploration Agency). Basically, Japanese NASA.  What's your name, I'll see if they've heard of you.  You're a very smart person and since you're an astronaut, I'm sure they'll know of you.  

There is nothing to concede, as you haven't truly taken a stance or made a point.  Your obvious social akwardness may be the cause, however, so I will summerise my points:

-As I said I am an Astronaut.  Also, I occassionally teach International Trade at Harvard when I can fit it in my schedule.  I've won three Olympic gold medals.  My penis is a very thick 12.5 inches long, which is a bit of a pain for my girlfriend, Kate Upton, though she puts up with it.  I have a net worth of arount 78 Billion US$.  I also fight crime in the evenings using some special gadgets I have developed. I enjoy being a vigalante.  You now have everything you need to know about my resume.

-Posting information about your "credentials" on an internet forum is pointless.  Anyone can write anything they want, so such a statement is meaningless, true or not.

-Opening a conversation with a declaration of your credentials is socially awkward and very obnoxious.  This is true in both real life or online.  It makes you come off as insecure or full of yourself, or both.

-If you have a valid point to make you don't need to qualify it with your credentials. If you are smart and/or educated, your point will stand on its own.

-You haven't actually made a point.  I started this thread talking about how the yen is falling and Nintendo stock is rising.  Both are true.  I am also stating that they are related, and that a weak yen is very good for Nintendo.  You haven't stated that this is not true.  You stated that you have an MBA and a weak yen may or may not be good for Nintendo.  This isn't a stance, so there really isn't anything to debate.  If you want to say it is bad for Nintendo, I will laugh at you and debate with you.  As it stands you have simply stood in the middle ground on the topic, and provided no actual information to support either stance.

So in summary, I have stated that weak yen is good for Nintendo, statements of credentials on internet forums are pointless, opening posts with such statements are obnoxious and imply insecurity, and that you actually haven't taken a stance on whether the falling yen is good or bad.  Is there anything you would like to discuss or would you rather list some internships you may have done?



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cusman said:
I am still holding my 50 or so Nintendo shares I bought when they were near the $70 price point... am I foolish to hope they will ever recover to that level? Hey I am relatively young and willing to wait...

A fundamental pricipal to hold close when investing is that once money is spent, it is spent.  That transaction is over.  In other words, it doesn't matter if it will ever reach $70 again, other than for the boost to your ego.  You need to forget the price you  purchased for.

Now, what you focus on is that you have 50 shares today that are worth just under $14.  Are they going to be worth more or less than $14, and if so, when?  My own opinion is that they will definitely be worth more. Hell, they were over $18 a few months ago.  Whether Nintendo will once again reach Wii/DS level revenues is debatable, but it is fairly certain (to me) that they will be in better shape than they are today.  Even at Gamecube/GBA levels they typically turned billion dollar profits.  If WiiU flops, Nintendo could also sell their product on other platforms if needed, which would create a lot of buzz in the markets.

My personal thought is that the value is going to grow now until the end of March.  If you own shares on March 30 you will receive a dividend.  After March 30 their may be a slight dip, and then growth again leading to their annual financial statements.  I think those statements will reveal much worse than forcasted sales but still a return to profit thanks to the falling yen.  Nintendo will then forcast a large profit for the coming year.  The small profit plus the forcasted large profit will drive up the value of shares to levels in excess of $20 by the end of the year.

So if I were you I would keep your shares till then if you're not in a rush.  Don't expect $70, but I would expect more than $14.  If Nintendo has a major success this fall, $30-40 shares may happen, but I'm not counting on it.

I should also make it clear that I am not giving you professional investing advice here.  Just stating my opinion.



Well this thread has gone overboard.

Nonetheless, I bought my NTDOY at 14$ (yen was 78 at the time) a while ago and will keep holding. I strongly believe Nintendo will stage a comeback this year; however, they have an uphill battle to climb.

Judging by Nintendo's previous quarter financial, Nintendo has over 10B$ in cash and investments - for the individual who claims they only have 6B$, you are wrong.

Nintendo will post profit this fiscal year because of the weakening yen; nonetheless, they are projecting an operating loss of over 200 million and net profit of over 150 million. Let's face it, Nintendo caught a lucky break with the weakening yen and Animal Crossing.

Going forward, Nintendo has a killer line-up in Japan for the 3DS. Summer release of Monster Hunter (most likely June) and Pokemon in October, the 3DS will replicate 3DS' phenomenal sales of 2012 year into 2013 no sweat - Jpn. The Western hemisphere will most likely remain stable or have a slight YOY increase depending on the success and commercial impact of Pokemon and Animal Crossing.

The Wii U puzzles me however. I cannot take a stance on its success until they have a release schedule for Q1.

Overall, if the exchange rates remain at current levels, Nintendo should have no problem of posting profits of over 500 million next year.



cusman said:
I am still holding my 50 or so Nintendo shares I bought when they were near the $70 price point... am I foolish to hope they will ever recover to that level? Hey I am relatively young and willing to wait...


Yes seriously i wil never get to that level I cant say ever but within the next 5-10 years at least, there is a physocological block from it going that high. and besides if it did the amount of time it took to get there would be far longer than if you sold now and bought another stock that grew to the original money you had.



My concern for Nintendo is that the Wii U isn't going to be much more than a GameCube/N64 type seller and the 3DS seems to be shrinking year-over-year in the Western markets which to me indicates that tablets/smartphones continue to chip away at the handheld market.

I think those two factors will keep their stock price from rising too much. In the West especially, with the rise of the larger screen smartphone and cheap mini-tablets, it's going to continue to hammer the handheld gaming market until its niche and there's only so much Pokemon will do IMO.

I would not be surprised at all if we are sitting here in a year and 3DS is down YoY again.



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To give an update on the stock situation, Nintendo is currently trending downward, following the release of the NPD results last night of only 66,000 Wii U's sold in the U.S. during February.  3DS sales and Fire Emblem numbers provided them with some good news, though.   It wasn't all bad.

They are expecting to meet their guidance of 4 million Wii U's sold worldwide by the end of March.  If anything, Iwata's shareholder briefing at the end of April will be more about drumming up strengths of future product launches later this year, and less about dwelling on weak console sales in January and February.  What's in the past is in the past, and I think now that Monster Hunter and LEGO City are coming out in the west, Wii U can only grow from here.  The software drought is officially over.



The Screamapillar is easily identified by its constant screaming—it even screams in its sleep. The Screamapillar is the favorite food of everything, is sexually attracted to fire, and needs constant reassurance or it will die.

TheLastStarFighter said:

The Yen zoomed past 96 per US dollar this weekend.  At the same time, Nintendo shares have seen very significant gains over the last week.  This is great for shareholders, of course, but could also have a major impact on the industry in the coming months.  The 95yen dollar means an extra 18% revenue for Japanese product in America. This effectively means that a WiiU deluxe sold for $350 is now selling for $415 from Nintendo's perspective when we look at their initial projections using an 80yen dollar.  Since the breakeven point for WiiU was between 1 and 2 games, it's fairly safe to say $65 would mean the WiiU is selling at a profit outside of Japan.  This is without even looking at game revenue. So is Nintendo going to drop the price? Bank the money? I would suggest a fall price dop becomes more likely with every drop in the yen.  A 100yen dollar would make the WiiU able to be both cheaper and profitable, if not already. If 3DS sales are strong this year, Nintendo could be printing money.

Sony is benefiting for that too, and Nintendo still has to cope with an operating loss regardless of the exchange rate. Besides, the NFC Pokemon is a spin-off, it can't even remotely be as strong as Pokemon X/Y.



Screamapillar said:

To give an update on the stock situation, Nintendo is currently trending downward, following the release of the NPD results last night of only 66,000 Wii U's sold in the U.S. during February.  3DS sales and Fire Emblem numbers provided them with some good news, though.   It wasn't all bad.

They are expecting to meet their guidance of 4 million Wii U's sold worldwide by the end of March.  If anything, Iwata's shareholder briefing at the end of April will be more about drumming up strengths of future product launches later this year, and less about dwelling on weak console sales in January and February.  What's in the past is in the past, and I think now that Monster Hunter and LEGO City are coming out in the west, Wii U can only grow from here.  The software drought is officially over.


I don't think they are going to meet 4 million Wii Us shipped but we'll see. Maybe they can barely squeeze it out.

They probably sold a little less than 120k Wii Us combined for Feburary between the US and Japan, and Europe is likely less than either of those markets.

I also don't see LEGO City being a hit. No licensed property (ie: Star Wars, Harry Potter, Batman, etc.) and no co-op will limit its appeal dramatically. If "Lego Star Wars" was a generic unlicensed "Space Sci Fi LEGO" game, I don't think it would've done 1/10th of the sales. 



ryuzaki57 said:
TheLastStarFighter said:

The Yen zoomed past 96 per US dollar this weekend.  At the same time, Nintendo shares have seen very significant gains over the last week.  This is great for shareholders, of course, but could also have a major impact on the industry in the coming months.  The 95yen dollar means an extra 18% revenue for Japanese product in America. This effectively means that a WiiU deluxe sold for $350 is now selling for $415 from Nintendo's perspective when we look at their initial projections using an 80yen dollar.  Since the breakeven point for WiiU was between 1 and 2 games, it's fairly safe to say $65 would mean the WiiU is selling at a profit outside of Japan.  This is without even looking at game revenue. So is Nintendo going to drop the price? Bank the money? I would suggest a fall price dop becomes more likely with every drop in the yen.  A 100yen dollar would make the WiiU able to be both cheaper and profitable, if not already. If 3DS sales are strong this year, Nintendo could be printing money.

Sony is benefiting for that too, and Nintendo still has to cope with an operating loss regardless of the exchange rate. Besides, the NFC Pokemon is a spin-off, it can't even remotely be as strong as Pokemon X/Y.





Soundwave said:
Screamapillar said:

To give an update on the stock situation, Nintendo is currently trending downward, following the release of the NPD results last night of only 66,000 Wii U's sold in the U.S. during February.  3DS sales and Fire Emblem numbers provided them with some good news, though.   It wasn't all bad.

They are expecting to meet their guidance of 4 million Wii U's sold worldwide by the end of March.  If anything, Iwata's shareholder briefing at the end of April will be more about drumming up strengths of future product launches later this year, and less about dwelling on weak console sales in January and February.  What's in the past is in the past, and I think now that Monster Hunter and LEGO City are coming out in the west, Wii U can only grow from here.  The software drought is officially over.


I don't think they are going to meet 4 million Wii Us shipped but we'll see. Maybe they can barely squeeze it out.

They will meet the 4 million shipped to retail; however, the software projection of 16 million software will significantly be decreased to 13 million due to lack of software releases.

They shipped 830k in Japan by December 2012 - 830k sold as of last week.

They shipped 1.3 million in the Americas (Canada, U.S., Mexico, etc.) by December 2012 - 1.05 U.S. + 100k Canada as of February.

They shipped 900k in Others (Europe, Australia) - NA