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Forums - Nintendo - Yen Plummets, Nintendo Soars!

ShinMitsugi said:

Man.  Allow sombody with an MBA to step in here.  First of all, depending on where Nintendo manufactures its goods, a weakening yen could greatly increase the cost of importing parts from foreign countries for manufacturing.  If the manufacturing is done in Japan, this would be the case as they'd have to import parts from countries like Taiwan with a weaker Japanese yen.

In addition, a weaker yen makes it more difficult for Nintendo to cover ANY liabilities that it holds in foreign currencies.  I imagine this is at least a fair percent of its overall debts, but I'm not completely sure.  

Further still, Nintendo stock is near its 52 week low of 11.36 at a current price of 13.89 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NTDOY&ql=0).  This is quite low considering that the stock is on an exchange that is currently at an ALL TIME HISTORICAL high.  Also, the Nikkei is very high.  Usually this type of positive investment sentiment would pull up the price of most stocks but securities that have a poor public sentiment, such as Nintendo, often don't benefit because peple are reluctant to buy them.


Oh my.  You need to go back to school, or at least the school of humility, because you are talking about something you know nothing about.  Keeping it simple for you, Nintendo has almost no liabilities.  It has 10 billion in the bank.  And while currency fluctuations have various pros and cons, for Nintendo we can make the blanket statement that a weak yen vs high dollar is a very, very good thing.  In this case it is fair for us to generalize that the US is essentially a market to sell a product. 40% of its product.  Nintendo's R&D is all in Japan.  All of its software design. Hardware design.  Financials are reported in Yen.

Regardless, external situations have made a positive turn for Nintendo, and the markets have responded.  It is still undervalued greatly, but a 13% gain in a week is a good thing. I hope your MBA at least can tell you that much.



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TheLastStarFighter said:
ShinMitsugi said:

Man.  Allow sombody with an MBA to step in here.  First of all, depending on where Nintendo manufactures its goods, a weakening yen could greatly increase the cost of importing parts from foreign countries for manufacturing.  If the manufacturing is done in Japan, this would be the case as they'd have to import parts from countries like Taiwan with a weaker Japanese yen.

In addition, a weaker yen makes it more difficult for Nintendo to cover ANY liabilities that it holds in foreign currencies.  I imagine this is at least a fair percent of its overall debts, but I'm not completely sure.  

Further still, Nintendo stock is near its 52 week low of 11.36 at a current price of 13.89 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NTDOY&ql=0).  This is quite low considering that the stock is on an exchange that is currently at an ALL TIME HISTORICAL high.  Also, the Nikkei is very high.  Usually this type of positive investment sentiment would pull up the price of most stocks but securities that have a poor public sentiment, such as Nintendo, often don't benefit because peple are reluctant to buy them.


Oh my.  You need to go back to school, or at least the school of humility, because you are talking about something you know nothing about.  Keeping it simple for you, Nintendo has almost no liabilities.  It has 10 billion in the bank.  And while currency fluctuations have various pros and cons, for Nintendo we can make the blanket statement that a weak yen vs high dollar is a very, very good thing.  In this case it is fair for us to generalize that the US is essentially a market to sell a product. 40% of its product.  Nintendo's R&D is all in Japan.  All of its software design. Hardware design.  Financials are reported in Yen.

Regardless, external situations have made a positive turn for Nintendo, and the markets have responded.  It is still undervalued greatly, but a 13% gain in a week is a good thing. I hope your MBA at least can tell you that much.

had.  nintendo had 10B in the bank.  that dropped to around 6B last year (based on exchange rates at the time) and we'll find out soon here how much they actually have.  but whatever it is it is not 10B anymore.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120426e.pdf



Good news



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/annual1203e.pdf

Above is a URL to Nintendo's 2012 annual report.  Let me keep it simple for you.  Maybe you should go back to the "school of humility" because on page 23 you'll see CLEARLY that Nintendo has over $2.1 billion in liabilities.  I find your comments charming that you think ANY company on earth exists without having liabilities.  It's fairly clear you aren't educated in business.  Every company balance sheet has liabilities as it is part of what makes a "balance" sheet balance: as assets = liabilities + Shareholder's Equity.  My previous comments simply said that if the debts were held in a foreign currency, it makes it harder for Nintendo to pay these debts if the yen weakens.

However, your statement about  Nintendo being "undervalued" isn't completely wrong.  As of today FYE 2012, Nintendo has a book value, as of around $15 billion.  (annual report page 22) and the market value is just of $14 billion.  However, all this means is that investor sentiment is poor because the business world thinks Nintendo will, in the future, be worth $1 billion less than its actual physical asset book value.  I'd caution against using words like "Greatly" as they are far too vague for business language.  What exactly does "greatly" mean?  

Btw, Nintendo is down 2% in early trading today. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NTDOY&ql=0



ShinMitsugi said:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/annual1203e.pdf

Above is a URL to Nintendo's 2012 annual report.  Let me keep it simple for you.  Maybe you should go back to the "school of humility" because on page 23 you'll see CLEARLY that Nintendo has over $2.1 billion in liabilities.  I find your comments charming that you think ANY company on earth exists without having liabilities.  It's fairly clear you aren't educated in business.  Every company balance sheet has liabilities as it is part of what makes a "balance" sheet balance: as assets = liabilities + Shareholder's Equity.  My previous comments simply said that if the debts were held in a foreign currency, it makes it harder for Nintendo to pay these debts if the yen weakens.

However, your statement about  Nintendo being "undervalued" isn't completely wrong.  As of today FYE 2012, Nintendo has a book value, as of around $15 billion.  (annual report page 22) and the market value is just of $14 billion.  However, all this means is that investor sentiment is poor because the business world thinks Nintendo will, in the future, be worth $1 billion less than its actual physical asset book value.  I'd caution against using words like "Greatly" as they are far too vague for business language.  What exactly does "greatly" mean?  

Btw, Nintendo is down 2% in early trading today. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NTDOY&ql=0

Shin, you're trying really hard to sound educated and you continue to take a condescending tone, but you have to understand, you have no idea my education, position or anything else.  You should refrain from talking in that way, it's unbecoming.  16 billion in assets and 2 billion in liabilities.... yeah, for the sake of our light-hearted, big picture discussion on the gaming form website, yes, we can say that Nintendo has essentially no liabilities.

You made the point in your initial post that we need someone of your exceptional education to explain that there is a potential downside to the falling yen for Nintendo.  If you know anything about the operations of Nintendo, Sony, Toyota or any major Japanese exporter, you know that they are begging, praying for a weaker yen.  The 80 yen dollar is the primary reason Nintendo was in the red last year.  The 95 yen dollar should put the company in the black this year, even though it may post on operating loss.  A weak yen is extremely good for Nintendo, this is widely known, so trying to sound educated by pointing out that certain costs will increase for the company doesn't make you sound educated, it makes you sound ameturish and fresh out of school, like your trying to point out something the rest of us already know.

As far as how greatly undervalued Nintendo is?  That would depend, of course, on how much you value their intelectual property, expertese, good will, etc.  Nintendo is essentially trading at a value less than the value of their physcial assets.  That means the market is saying that "Super Mario Brothers" has no value.  When you think that one title, New Super Mario Bro, sold 30 million copies at $39 each, its revenue to Nintendo is upward of $1 billion.  That means that Nintendo has the ability to build something at a cost in the 10's of million and sell it for a billion.  Essentially this ability is coming for free right now on the markets.

Nintendo is a company that typically turns in a billion dollar profit or more each year.  I would personally state I think Nintendo is worth at least double its current value.  Some analysis projects it will hit about $26 per share by December 2013.  I would agree with this.  I think its true value may be in excess of $30 and maybe as much as beyond $40, but its hard to say.  Right now the company's biggest challenge is to get hardware penetration, wolrdwide for Wii U and in the US for 3DS.  It needs that to sell its lucrative software.  I would say it will likely do that, at least to some extent if not Wii/DS levels.  The investment market does not - yet- largely do to the presiding feeling that tablets and smartphones are the "in" item and eating into traditional gaming platforms.  I'm not sold on that idea, but only time will tell.  I think that even if Nintendo were forced to sell its software on other platforms, its IPs are extremely valuable... at least enough to warrent a $25+ share price.



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TheLastStarFighter said:
ShinMitsugi said:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/annual1203e.pdf

Above is a URL to Nintendo's 2012 annual report.  Let me keep it simple for you.  Maybe you should go back to the "school of humility" because on page 23 you'll see CLEARLY that Nintendo has over $2.1 billion in liabilities.  I find your comments charming that you think ANY company on earth exists without having liabilities.  It's fairly clear you aren't educated in business.  Every company balance sheet has liabilities as it is part of what makes a "balance" sheet balance: as assets = liabilities + Shareholder's Equity.  My previous comments simply said that if the debts were held in a foreign currency, it makes it harder for Nintendo to pay these debts if the yen weakens.

However, your statement about  Nintendo being "undervalued" isn't completely wrong.  As of today FYE 2012, Nintendo has a book value, as of around $15 billion.  (annual report page 22) and the market value is just of $14 billion.  However, all this means is that investor sentiment is poor because the business world thinks Nintendo will, in the future, be worth $1 billion less than its actual physical asset book value.  I'd caution against using words like "Greatly" as they are far too vague for business language.  What exactly does "greatly" mean?  

Btw, Nintendo is down 2% in early trading today. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NTDOY&ql=0

Shin, you're trying really hard to sound educated and you continue to take a condescending tone, but you have to understand, you have no idea my education, position or anything else.  You should refrain from talking in that way, it's unbecoming.  16 billion in assets and 2 billion in liabilities.... yeah, for the sake of our light-hearted, big picture discussion on the gaming form website, yes, we can say that Nintendo has essentially no liabilities.

You made the point in your initial post that we need someone of your exceptional education to explain that there is a potential downside to the falling yen for Nintendo.  If you know anything about the operations of Nintendo, Sony, Toyota or any major Japanese exporter, you know that they are begging, praying for a weaker yen.  The 80 yen dollar is the primary reason Nintendo was in the red last year.  The 95 yen dollar should put the company in the black this year, even though it may post on operating loss.  A weak yen is extremely good for Nintendo, this is widely known, so trying to sound educated by pointing out that certain costs will increase for the company doesn't make you sound educated, it makes you sound ameturish and fresh out of school, like your trying to point out something the rest of us already know.

As far as how greatly undervalued Nintendo is?  That would depend, of course, on how much you value their intelectual property, expertese, good will, etc.  Nintendo is essentially trading at a value less than the value of their physcial assets.  That means the market is saying that "Super Mario Brothers" has no value.  When you think that one title, New Super Mario Bro, sold 30 million copies at $39 each, its revenue to Nintendo is upward of $1 billion.  That means that Nintendo has the ability to build something at a cost in the 10's of million and sell it for a billion.  Essentially this ability is coming for free right now on the markets.

Nintendo is a company that typically turns in a billion dollar profit or more each year.  I would personally state I think Nintendo is worth at least double its current value.  Some analysis projects it will hit about $26 per share by December 2013.  I would agree with this.  I think its true value may be in excess of $30 and maybe as much as beyond $40, but its hard to say.  Right now the company's biggest challenge is to get hardware penetration, wolrdwide for Wii U and in the US for 3DS.  It needs that to sell its lucrative software.  I would say it will likely do that, at least to some extent if not Wii/DS levels.  The investment market does not - yet- largely do to the presiding feeling that tablets and smartphones are the "in" item and eating into traditional gaming platforms.  I'm not sold on that idea, but only time will tell.  I think that even if Nintendo were forced to sell its software on other platforms, its IPs are extremely valuable... at least enough to warrent a $25+ share price.

 

I suppose I'll tackle that response one point at a time.

 

#1) I never once said Nintendo was going bankrupt or that they were an "upside-down"  company.  I simply said Nintendo, and ALL companies have liabilities.  

#2) You never explain your point about the weaker yen being good for Nintendo.  Currency is perhaps that most complex thing in International Business so your statement leaves a lot of to be pondered.  Perhaps you're talking about the weaker yen being good for Japanese exports.  I'm not really sure.  A stronger or weaker currency affects an economy in dozens of ways.  

#3) When you talk about Nintendo trading at "less than fair value", which it is, it doesn't necessarily mean that "SMB" has no IP value.  The price of a stock reflects every possible aspect of a markets sentiment about that company's value, INCLUDING future anticipations.   The fact that the company is trading near it's 52 weeks low (its down again today), DESPITE the NIKKEI and NASDAQ being at all time record highs says a lot.  It says that depite the present overall very high sentiment about the economies of the world, people don't have that same sentiment about Nintendo.  It's probably the poor sales of the Wii U and the recent announcement of the PS4.

#4) Nintendo lost $527 million dollars in 2012.   I'd say Nintendo is doing a fine job of penetrating the market with the 3DS but it may not be able to succeed with the Wii U considering the new consoles being released.  Time will tell but if the Wii U can't be successful in the market as the ONLY "next gen" console and can barely outsell the Wii.  There are problems.

 

For the record, my background is an Undergraduate in International Business and an MBA in marketing and management.  I've done 3 internships and have 2 years of doing economic consulting, mostly transfer pricing and commodities such as oil and natural gas.  I haven't heard anything about your background.  



come on Nintendo then push it! Give m elots of new game!



Switch!!!

ShinMitsugi said:
TheLastStarFighter said:
ShinMitsugi said:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/annual1203e.pdf

Above is a URL to Nintendo's 2012 annual report.  Let me keep it simple for you.  Maybe you should go back to the "school of humility" because on page 23 you'll see CLEARLY that Nintendo has over $2.1 billion in liabilities.  I find your comments charming that you think ANY company on earth exists without having liabilities.  It's fairly clear you aren't educated in business.  Every company balance sheet has liabilities as it is part of what makes a "balance" sheet balance: as assets = liabilities + Shareholder's Equity.  My previous comments simply said that if the debts were held in a foreign currency, it makes it harder for Nintendo to pay these debts if the yen weakens.

However, your statement about  Nintendo being "undervalued" isn't completely wrong.  As of today FYE 2012, Nintendo has a book value, as of around $15 billion.  (annual report page 22) and the market value is just of $14 billion.  However, all this means is that investor sentiment is poor because the business world thinks Nintendo will, in the future, be worth $1 billion less than its actual physical asset book value.  I'd caution against using words like "Greatly" as they are far too vague for business language.  What exactly does "greatly" mean?  

Btw, Nintendo is down 2% in early trading today. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NTDOY&ql=0

Shin, you're trying really hard to sound educated and you continue to take a condescending tone, but you have to understand, you have no idea my education, position or anything else.  You should refrain from talking in that way, it's unbecoming.  16 billion in assets and 2 billion in liabilities.... yeah, for the sake of our light-hearted, big picture discussion on the gaming form website, yes, we can say that Nintendo has essentially no liabilities.

You made the point in your initial post that we need someone of your exceptional education to explain that there is a potential downside to the falling yen for Nintendo.  If you know anything about the operations of Nintendo, Sony, Toyota or any major Japanese exporter, you know that they are begging, praying for a weaker yen.  The 80 yen dollar is the primary reason Nintendo was in the red last year.  The 95 yen dollar should put the company in the black this year, even though it may post on operating loss.  A weak yen is extremely good for Nintendo, this is widely known, so trying to sound educated by pointing out that certain costs will increase for the company doesn't make you sound educated, it makes you sound ameturish and fresh out of school, like your trying to point out something the rest of us already know.

As far as how greatly undervalued Nintendo is?  That would depend, of course, on how much you value their intelectual property, expertese, good will, etc.  Nintendo is essentially trading at a value less than the value of their physcial assets.  That means the market is saying that "Super Mario Brothers" has no value.  When you think that one title, New Super Mario Bro, sold 30 million copies at $39 each, its revenue to Nintendo is upward of $1 billion.  That means that Nintendo has the ability to build something at a cost in the 10's of million and sell it for a billion.  Essentially this ability is coming for free right now on the markets.

Nintendo is a company that typically turns in a billion dollar profit or more each year.  I would personally state I think Nintendo is worth at least double its current value.  Some analysis projects it will hit about $26 per share by December 2013.  I would agree with this.  I think its true value may be in excess of $30 and maybe as much as beyond $40, but its hard to say.  Right now the company's biggest challenge is to get hardware penetration, wolrdwide for Wii U and in the US for 3DS.  It needs that to sell its lucrative software.  I would say it will likely do that, at least to some extent if not Wii/DS levels.  The investment market does not - yet- largely do to the presiding feeling that tablets and smartphones are the "in" item and eating into traditional gaming platforms.  I'm not sold on that idea, but only time will tell.  I think that even if Nintendo were forced to sell its software on other platforms, its IPs are extremely valuable... at least enough to warrent a $25+ share price.

 

I suppose I'll tackle that response one point at a time.

 

#1) I never once said Nintendo was going bankrupt or that they were an "upside-down"  company.  I simply said Nintendo, and ALL companies have liabilities.  

#2) You never explain your point about the weaker yen being good for Nintendo.  Currency is perhaps that most complex thing in International Business so your statement leaves a lot of to be pondered.  Perhaps you're talking about the weaker yen being good for Japanese exports.  I'm not really sure.  A stronger or weaker currency affects an economy in dozens of ways.  

#3) When you talk about Nintendo trading at "less than fair value", which it is, it doesn't necessarily mean that "SMB" has no IP value.  The price of a stock reflects every possible aspect of a markets sentiment about that company's value, INCLUDING future anticipations.   The fact that the company is trading near it's 52 weeks low (its down again today), DESPITE the NIKKEI and NASDAQ being at all time record highs says a lot.  It says that depite the present overall very high sentiment about the economies of the world, people don't have that same sentiment about Nintendo.  It's probably the poor sales of the Wii U and the recent announcement of the PS4.

#4) Nintendo lost $527 million dollars in 2012.   I'd say Nintendo is doing a fine job of penetrating the market with the 3DS but it may not be able to succeed with the Wii U considering the new consoles being released.  Time will tell but if the Wii U can't be successful in the market as the ONLY "next gen" console and can barely outsell the Wii.  There are problems.

 

For the record, my background is an Undergraduate in International Business and an MBA in marketing and management.  I've done 3 internships and have 2 years of doing economic consulting, mostly transfer pricing and commodities such as oil and natural gas.  I haven't heard anything about your background.  

I'm an astronaut.  Nothing beats an astronaut.



Based on your lack of any kind of response to my statements and your utter complete avoidance in providing any kind of credentials about yourself, I'm just going to assume until shown otherwise that you are conceding this discussion.  

Also, You say you're an astronaut. (unlikely)  Ironically, I live in Japan and teach many people who work for JAXA (Japanese Aeronautical Exploration Agency). Basically, Japanese NASA.  What's your name, I'll see if they've heard of you.  You're a very smart person and since you're an astronaut, I'm sure they'll know of you.  



I am still holding my 50 or so Nintendo shares I bought when they were near the $70 price point... am I foolish to hope they will ever recover to that level? Hey I am relatively young and willing to wait...