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ShinMitsugi on 21 March 2013
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TheLastStarFighter said:
Soundwave said:
ShinMitsugi said:

It doesn't matter why I chose to post on this thread.   I just like to point out ill advised statements when I see them.  Anybody who is experienced in stock trading wouldn't get so excited about a single day of gains of a company on the market.  That person looks pretty unintelligent when those gains are lost the very next 2 days. Sort of makes that person look like they don't know what they're talking about.  

Then the person says how much the depreciated yen is helping Nintendo.  However, on second thought, you make a comparative graph of Nintendo and the $/Yen's 12 month stock and currency market perperformance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=USDJPY%3DX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=NTDOY%2C+%5EN225%2C+&ql=1&c=%5EDJI and you think to yourself...wow, maybe there isn't a correlation.  I also added the DOW and the NIKKEI just so you could see how poorly Nintendo has done despite the growing confidence in the global economy.

Pretty concrete evidence in a lack of confidence in Nintendo considering the major Japanese and US composite exchanges rise while Nintendo falls.

Let's remember kids, reactionary statements regarding the stock market....not a good idea.


It's hard to argue against this. The 2 year and 5 year charts are even more depressing. 

If I was a stock holder of Nintendo (thankfully I'm not), I'd be asking for blood, Iwata and his board of directors have driven the company's stock into the gutter. 

 


Actually you can.  Take a look at the 5-year trend of Nintendo, and the US$ vs Yen.  As the dollar weakened, so did Nintendo, very consistendly.  Now, very recently, as the dollar strengthens (and yen weakens), Nintendo has made a signifiant gain.  About 18% over last month.

So we're clear here, the topic of the thread is that the falling yen is good for Nintendo and the shares are rising accordingly.  This isn't talking about whether Nintendo the company is in good shape or anything else.  Of course there are other factors causing ups and downs in Nintendo's price, but weak yen is a positive influence, and the gains over the last month are significant.  The graph that Shin posted only supports this.

I have no intention of engaging with Shin, he has about a dozen posts all just bashing Wii U and Nintendo. He's just looking to agitate, not have a meaningful discussion, and he doesn't stay on topic.

You can't generate a correlation using only 1 month of data.   It would have to be years.  Simply for the purpose of showing you how nearsighted you are being, here is a 3 month chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=USDJPY%3DX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=NTDOY&ql=1  If you use a 1 month time horizon then, yes, perhaps there is a correlation, but if you look further back, it's clear there is not.  The yen has been DEPRECIATING consistently and without much flucuation (not weakening as this is not a proper term. Does the yen have muscles?)  since the beginning of 2013.  During this same period, the value of Nintendo's stock fluctuated wildly.

FOR EXAMPLE:

On about Jan 6, Nintendo's shares fell from $13.50 per share all the way to $12.0.  During this period, the yen depreciates from about $1.00/87yen to about $1.00/90yen. 

On about Jan 29, Nintendo's shares fell from about $13.40 all the way to $11.50 by Feb 18.  During this period, the yen depreciates from about $1.00/91yen to almost $1.00/94 yen.

Just look at that link above.  It doesn't take a genius to see that there is not a correlation here (I'll make a proper analysis using data and not graphs if I need to).   LSF, I am not hating Nintendo anymore.  I am showing you that what you are saying is inaccurate.  For the record, you shouldn't do a correlation over 3 months either.  I'd do it over 5 or 10 years.  I am just using the 3 month graph above to illustrate the recent swings in Nintendo's stock value.