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Forums - Nintendo - If the Wii U sells about as much as the N64 will you be happy with those sales?

Mummelmann on 02 March 2013
Jay520 said:
BluGamer23 said:
Jay520 said:
Immortal said:
Extremely premature to assume any significant external factors are harming the industry at the whole at this point. For handhelds, you may have a point. But the 3DS is selling well and the PSV's low sales can be explained by Sony's relatively weak first party support on the console, diminished Sony presence which helped the PSP, and the lack of some random big game to propel the system ( like Monster Hunter on PSP). These factors would cause any console to have low sales, so what reasoning are you applying to form the conclusion that there's an external factor at work?

Wii U also has its problem. It has one big game that I know of - New Super Mario Bros U and is currently going through a drought of games. Besides, Nintendo consoles have historically been doing worse and worse every gen without any external factors, with the Wii being the only anomaly. And considering the Wii U lacks much of what made the Wii successful, it makes sense that it would mirror the declining sales trend of Nintendo consoles. What reason is there to believe there's an external factor harming the Wii U?

At most, you could argue that there's external factors harming handhelds only (I.e. tablets) and even then only in particular instances looking at the success of the 3DS.

no seriously guys... you ppl thought vita will sell gangbusters! .... $250 !! with dual stick! its a winner!..  hooraa!

now apply this to how yall reacting to the ps4.. lol its the same thingg!.. $399 and uhm 1080p HD gfx its a winner!..  hooraa!

rinse and repeat...


What is your argument? Anyone predicting success based solely on price and controls is using flawed thinking. You make a lot of assumptions. When did I ever say the Vita would sell gangbusters? And when did I ever say the PS4 would sell gangbusters? Read my post again. I made no predictions on the success of the PS4.

As Kowenicki would say: wind your neck in.

He's making the age old assumption that everyone who comments on news on a certain console or enjoys the efforts on one particular company are a homogenic, hive-minded bunch of morons with no insight.

Personally, I haven't seen or heard anyone who thought the Vita would sell like gangbusters and the amount of folks who believe that the PS4 will do incredibly well is in the extreme minority. If anything, people are being rather reserved and cautious about predicting anything for the 8th gen, simply because its so hard to predict anything.

Besides, if you (BluGamer23) think that the PS4 is simply 400$ (not even confirmed price, could lower or higher) and "HD grafix" then you understand little enough that maybe you should simply refrain from commenting on anything console related. Your overall tone and language suggest the very same thing.



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Turkish on 02 March 2013

Same strategy they used for N64 and GC? I don't think so, Nintendo made a mistake thinking they would get the casuals like the Wii.



SuperMarioWorld on 02 March 2013
Mummelmann said:
Immortal said:
As long as it still outsells the PS4/720, which looks probable, sure.


How on earth does that look probable? How few consoles total do you actually expect to be sold in the 8th gen? 100 million? Even less?

OT: Personally, I don't care how much or little any of the consoles sell but I don't think that Nintendo themselves would or should be happy with sales like that, especially since they're not profitable on the hardware from launch, a smaller installed base also means severely diminshed income from software and licensing and royalties. If the Wii U ends up selling only 30-35% of the Wii, that would be a really long fall, even bigger than the PS3 - PS2, where it will likely end up around 60% or so.


I think it's possible the 8th gen could sell less than 100 million. PS3/360 will keep selling many units for years and a lot of games for the PS4/720 will also be released on PS3/360. For example I reckon fifa 14,15,16 and 17 will all have PS360 versions.  



Mummelmann on 02 March 2013
SuperMarioWorld said:
Mummelmann said:
Immortal said:
As long as it still outsells the PS4/720, which looks probable, sure.


How on earth does that look probable? How few consoles total do you actually expect to be sold in the 8th gen? 100 million? Even less?

OT: Personally, I don't care how much or little any of the consoles sell but I don't think that Nintendo themselves would or should be happy with sales like that, especially since they're not profitable on the hardware from launch, a smaller installed base also means severely diminshed income from software and licensing and royalties. If the Wii U ends up selling only 30-35% of the Wii, that would be a really long fall, even bigger than the PS3 - PS2, where it will likely end up around 60% or so.


I think it's possible the 8th gen could sell less than 100 million. PS3/360 will keep selling many units for years and a lot of games for the PS4/720 will also be released on PS3/360. For example I reckon fifa 14,15,16 and 17 will all have PS360 versions.  


It was the same for the 6th/7th gen crossovers, annual sports games and a lot of 3rd parties were ported to last gen console as well, the similarity between the Wii and last gen consoles in specs made it even more logical. None of this, however, stopped the 7th generation from taking off and setting a nice pace and expanding the market, despite the PS2 outselling the PS3 in the beginning and actually keep on selling years into the 7th gen. PS3 and 360 are down about 35-40% and will keep on falling, this holidays could see yoy declines of about 50%, the 7th gen is grinding to a halt and will steal less thunder from the start of the 8th gen than the 6th gen did from the 7th. Look at FIFA Soccer 2009 for instance, launching at a time where the PS3 still had a tiny installed base and had been available only about 18 months in FIFA territory, yet it managed to actually outsell the PS2 version, this was the crossover. And none of the 7th gen consoles will remain anywhere near as relevant as the PS2 was, going into the 8th gen in 2013/2014.

This goes in particular for console that aim for core audiences, they desire upgrades and technology, the move ever forward and the prospect of buying a 3rd party multiplatform on an inferior and aging console for the same price as a superior version is unappealing to most core customers.

I believe wholeheartedly that the 8th gen will be significantly smaller than the 7th gen, but not to the tune of 100 million or less. 150-180 million or around there would be a better guess in my opinion.



mutantclown on 02 March 2013
Immortal said:
Mummelmann said:
Immortal said:
As long as it still outsells the PS4/720, which looks probable, sure.


How on earth does that look probable? How few consoles total do you actually expect to be sold in the 8th gen? 100 million? Even less?

OT: Personally, I don't care how much or little any of the consoles sell but I don't think that Nintendo themselves would or should be happy with sales like that, especially since they're not profitable on the hardware from launch, a smaller installed base also means severely diminshed income from software and licensing and royalties. If the Wii U ends up selling only 30-35% of the Wii, that would be a really long fall, even bigger than the PS3 - PS2, where it will likely end up around 60% or so.


Possibly. Honestly, you don't see three successive platform launches with disastrous sales (and only one of them escaping this to achieve a tolerable level) unless there's something really, really wrong with the industry.

Maybe it's smartphones, maybe it's the economy finally catching up with the industry or maybe it's something else. Either way, there is clearly external pressure that is forcing the industry to contract. To put it another way, if PSV and Wii U failed, I can't see why PS4 or 720 will manage to outdo them.

The PS4, in particular, seems completely identical to PSV in almost every way. High specs, high-ish price, "developers love it" and all the rest. If the PSV didn't manage to beat 3DS with all that, PS4 won't manage to beat Wii U. And since we know nothing about 720 yet, I'm comfortable in predicting that Wii U will sell the most.


Handhelds and consoles are too different animals.



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c0rd on 02 March 2013

Nobody will be happy, but there's really nothing they could do about it at this point. Ride it out with the handheld, and wait for the next opportunity for a Wii-like hit.

For me personally, the Wii success didn't translate to 3rd party support, so it's hard to get excited about their sales anymore. As long as they keep producing games and don't Dreamcast on me, I'm happy.

As for the PS4, I'd be careful with assuming it's going to do better than the PS3 just because Sony isn't screwing things up as much as last gen. Sony can't afford the same losses it did the last time around, and more importantly, graphical updates are becoming less and less important. It'll take a long time for sales to ramp up (price needing to come down to ~$300), and in that time, there's no telling what'll happen in the market.

For example, with PS4 abandoning all backwards compatability, it makes it a perfect time for anyone on the fence to jump ship. And with the PS4 being nothing more than a glorified PC, what's stopping a competitor like Valve from giving them a run for their money? I've seen virtually no talk of the Steambox on here, but with what we've seen from Sony so far, they look ripe for the picking.



Screamapillar on 02 March 2013

Investors won't be happy unless Wii U outsells the Wii, because all they care about is growth.

Even if Wii U is extremely profitable and ends up with an install base of 75 million in 2017, investors will say Nintendo can't compete and needs to put their games on smartphones.



The Screamapillar is easily identified by its constant screaming—it even screams in its sleep. The Screamapillar is the favorite food of everything, is sexually attracted to fire, and needs constant reassurance or it will die.

Netyaroze on 02 March 2013
SuperMarioWorld said:


I think it's possible the 8th gen could sell less than 100 million. PS3/360 will keep selling many units for years and a lot of games for the PS4/720 will also be released on PS3/360. For example I reckon fifa 14,15,16 and 17 will all have PS360 versions.  


There is no reason to believe the game console market shrunk, just yet. Just because Nintendo flopped it doesnt mean Sony or MS will also fail. Especially when looking at PS3/360 which are still very healthy and Wii which is not.

Also Fifa 13 is on PS2. I would be surprised if Fifa 20 wouldn't be on PS3. Still even if PS3 will be around in 2020 PS4 will offer a different experience. I know so many people who would be willing to switch to a new console just to save time for loading and installing. Actually the way Sony and MS seem to position their consoles as more than just consoles might save them.



BluGamer23 on 02 March 2013
Mummelmann said:
Jay520 said:

What is your argument? Anyone predicting success based solely on price and controls is using flawed thinking. You make a lot of assumptions. When did I ever say the Vita would sell gangbusters? And when did I ever say the PS4 would sell gangbusters? Read my post again. I made no predictions on the success of the PS4.

As Kowenicki would say: wind your neck in.

He's making the age old assumption that everyone who comments on news on a certain console or enjoys the efforts on one particular company are a homogenic, hive-minded bunch of morons with no insight.

Personally, I haven't seen or heard anyone who thought the Vita would sell like gangbusters and the amount of folks who believe that the PS4 will do incredibly well is in the extreme minority. If anything, people are being rather reserved and cautious about predicting anything for the 8th gen, simply because its so hard to predict anything.

Besides, if you (BluGamer23) think that the PS4 is simply 400$ (not even confirmed price, could lower or higher) and "HD grafix" then you understand little enough that maybe you should simply refrain from commenting on anything console related. Your overall tone and language suggest the very same thing.

aww thats cute!

no I dont think its simply $399 .. just echoing what some of you ppl say..  its adorable how you think you know stuff.. lol =) 

"that the PS4 will do incredibly well is in the extreme minority"

"I haven't seen or heard anyone who thought the Vita would sell like gangbusters"  

maybe you should stop pretending .. those wall of text you write means you have no point and you need to write a lot to make it sound like you do. adorable!



 

 

Metallicube on 02 March 2013
spurgeonryan said:

Will Nintendo and investors be happy?

 

They seem to be using the same strategy as they did with the Cube and N64. That is why I am asking. Or I just notice some of the same things happening.

 

Also makes me wonder if the Wii was just a fluke and the Wii U will just continue the downward slide Nintendo has had in console sales since the NES?

I'm pretty convinced Nintendo doesn't really care about the sales anymore. If they were really concerned with sales they would have dropped the Wii U price already. I think they care more about making profit, and making the type of games THEY wish to make. I am a big Nintendo fan, but I've always been annoyed by their stubbornness and their logic of trying to get others to adapt to THEM instead of the other way around, like it should be. It wasn't until the dismal 20 million sales of Gamecube for Nintendo to break from their stubborn ways and alter their strategy to accomidate a mass market audience.

Wii was not a fluke, Wii was Nintendo chaning their philosophy, and the sales followed. Sadly, now they've pretty much reverted back to their Gamecube/N64 strategy with the same type of niche games. Those types of games recieved mediocre sales before, and they will now.