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Mummelmann on 02 March 2013
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SuperMarioWorld said:
Mummelmann said:
Immortal said:
As long as it still outsells the PS4/720, which looks probable, sure.


How on earth does that look probable? How few consoles total do you actually expect to be sold in the 8th gen? 100 million? Even less?

OT: Personally, I don't care how much or little any of the consoles sell but I don't think that Nintendo themselves would or should be happy with sales like that, especially since they're not profitable on the hardware from launch, a smaller installed base also means severely diminshed income from software and licensing and royalties. If the Wii U ends up selling only 30-35% of the Wii, that would be a really long fall, even bigger than the PS3 - PS2, where it will likely end up around 60% or so.


I think it's possible the 8th gen could sell less than 100 million. PS3/360 will keep selling many units for years and a lot of games for the PS4/720 will also be released on PS3/360. For example I reckon fifa 14,15,16 and 17 will all have PS360 versions.  


It was the same for the 6th/7th gen crossovers, annual sports games and a lot of 3rd parties were ported to last gen console as well, the similarity between the Wii and last gen consoles in specs made it even more logical. None of this, however, stopped the 7th generation from taking off and setting a nice pace and expanding the market, despite the PS2 outselling the PS3 in the beginning and actually keep on selling years into the 7th gen. PS3 and 360 are down about 35-40% and will keep on falling, this holidays could see yoy declines of about 50%, the 7th gen is grinding to a halt and will steal less thunder from the start of the 8th gen than the 6th gen did from the 7th. Look at FIFA Soccer 2009 for instance, launching at a time where the PS3 still had a tiny installed base and had been available only about 18 months in FIFA territory, yet it managed to actually outsell the PS2 version, this was the crossover. And none of the 7th gen consoles will remain anywhere near as relevant as the PS2 was, going into the 8th gen in 2013/2014.

This goes in particular for console that aim for core audiences, they desire upgrades and technology, the move ever forward and the prospect of buying a 3rd party multiplatform on an inferior and aging console for the same price as a superior version is unappealing to most core customers.

I believe wholeheartedly that the 8th gen will be significantly smaller than the 7th gen, but not to the tune of 100 million or less. 150-180 million or around there would be a better guess in my opinion.