It's gonna have a tough time... the N64 had better third party support lol

Wii - 101-102 Million
Wii U - 33 Million

That would be less than a third of Wii sales. No gen-leader successor has ever done so badly. If that were to happen, could we actually say that the Wii craze was a fad?

It had sudden success that lasted for 3-4 Years and fell off a cliff shortly after. The successor selling less than a third of it, would also add strength to the claim. Seeing how Wii U Sport, Wii U Party and Wii U Fit affect it will be interesting...

N64 numbers would at best be the same as gamecube numbers when you adjust for the growth in the market over the last 2 gens. N64 numbers now are not good when compared to N64 in the N64's gen. In that gen basically only 145 million systems were sold, that's less than PS2 alone in the next gen, which is less than the 300 millionish we're gonna get this gen, which is probably gonna be less than next gen. Wii U would need at least 40 million to even be considered gamecube level IMO, 60+ million to be N64 level the way i see it.

Immortal said: Mummelmann said: Immortal said: As long as it still outsells the PS4/720, which looks probable, sure. How on earth does that look probable? How few consoles total do you actually expect to be sold in the 8th gen? 100 million? Even less? OT: Personally, I don't care how much or little any of the consoles sell but I don't think that Nintendo themselves would or should be happy with sales like that, especially since they're not profitable on the hardware from launch, a smaller installed base also means severely diminshed income from software and licensing and royalties. If the Wii U ends up selling only 30-35% of the Wii, that would be a really long fall, even bigger than the PS3 - PS2, where it will likely end up around 60% or so. Possibly. Honestly, you don't see three successive platform launches with disastrous sales (and only one of them escaping this to achieve a tolerable level) unless there's something really, really wrong with the industry. Maybe it's smartphones, maybe it's the economy finally catching up with the industry or maybe it's something else. Either way, there is clearly external pressure that is forcing the industry to contract. To put it another way, if PSV and Wii U failed, I can't see why PS4 or 720 will manage to outdo them. The PS4, in particular, seems completely identical to PSV in almost every way. High specs, high-ish price, "developers love it" and all the rest. If the PSV didn't manage to beat 3DS with all that, PS4 won't manage to beat Wii U. And since we know nothing about 720 yet, I'm comfortable in predicting that Wii U will sell the most.

Extremely premature to assume any significant external factors are harming the industry at the whole at this point. For handhelds, you may have a point. But the 3DS is selling well and the PSV's low sales can be explained by Sony's relatively weak first party support on the console, diminished Sony presence which helped the PSP, and the lack of some random big game to propel the system ( like Monster Hunter on PSP). These factors would cause any console to have low sales, so what reasoning are you applying to form the conclusion that there's an external factor at work?

Wii U also has its problem. It has one big game that I know of - New Super Mario Bros U and is currently going through a drought of games. Besides, Nintendo consoles have historically been doing worse and worse every gen without any external factors, with the Wii being the only anomaly. And considering the Wii U lacks much of what made the Wii successful, it makes sense that it would mirror the declining sales trend of Nintendo consoles. What reason is there to believe there's an external factor harming the Wii U?

At most, you could argue that there's external factors harming handhelds only (I.e. tablets) and even then only in particular instances looking at the success of the 3DS.

No, and I doubt anyone will be.

no, i want ninty to be succesful

Jay520 said: Immortal said: Extremely premature to assume any significant external factors are harming the industry at the whole at this point. For handhelds, you may have a point. But the 3DS is selling well and the PSV's low sales can be explained by Sony's relatively weak first party support on the console, diminished Sony presence which helped the PSP, and the lack of some random big game to propel the system ( like Monster Hunter on PSP). These factors would cause any console to have low sales, so what reasoning are you applying to form the conclusion that there's an external factor at work? Wii U also has its problem. It has one big game that I know of - New Super Mario Bros U and is currently going through a drought of games. Besides, Nintendo consoles have historically been doing worse and worse every gen without any external factors, with the Wii being the only anomaly. And considering the Wii U lacks much of what made the Wii successful, it makes sense that it would mirror the declining sales trend of Nintendo consoles. What reason is there to believe there's an external factor harming the Wii U? At most, you could argue that there's external factors harming handhelds only (I.e. tablets) and even then only in particular instances looking at the success of the 3DS.

no seriously guys... you ppl thought vita will sell gangbusters! .... $250 !! with dual stick! its a winner!..  hooraa!

now apply this to how yall reacting to the ps4.. lol its the same thingg!.. $399 and uhm 1080p HD gfx its a winner!..  hooraa!

rinse and repeat...

Carl2291 said: Wii - 101-102 Million Wii U - 33 Million That would be less than a third of Wii sales. No gen-leader successor has ever done so badly. If that were to happen, could we actually say that the Wii craze was a fad? It had sudden success that lasted for 3-4 Years and fell off a cliff shortly after. The successor selling less than a third of it, would also add strength to the claim. Seeing how Wii U Sport, Wii U Party and Wii U Fit affect it will be interesting...

Yeah, if Nintendo wants to relive that Wii success, they're going to need to use a strategy similar to the Wii. Going back to their traditional methods is just going to result in traditional success or lack thereof.

No certainly not needs to surpass 50M.

BluGamer23 said: Jay520 said: Immortal said: Extremely premature to assume any significant external factors are harming the industry at the whole at this point. For handhelds, you may have a point. But the 3DS is selling well and the PSV's low sales can be explained by Sony's relatively weak first party support on the console, diminished Sony presence which helped the PSP, and the lack of some random big game to propel the system ( like Monster Hunter on PSP). These factors would cause any console to have low sales, so what reasoning are you applying to form the conclusion that there's an external factor at work? Wii U also has its problem. It has one big game that I know of - New Super Mario Bros U and is currently going through a drought of games. Besides, Nintendo consoles have historically been doing worse and worse every gen without any external factors, with the Wii being the only anomaly. And considering the Wii U lacks much of what made the Wii successful, it makes sense that it would mirror the declining sales trend of Nintendo consoles. What reason is there to believe there's an external factor harming the Wii U? At most, you could argue that there's external factors harming handhelds only (I.e. tablets) and even then only in particular instances looking at the success of the 3DS. no seriously guys... you ppl thought vita will sell gangbusters! .... $250 !! with dual stick! its a winner!..  hooraa! now apply this to how yall reacting to the ps4.. lol its the same thingg!.. $399 and uhm 1080p HD gfx its a winner!..  hooraa! rinse and repeat...

What is your argument? Anyone predicting success based solely on price and controls is using flawed thinking. You make a lot of assumptions. When did I ever say the Vita would sell gangbusters? And when did I ever say the PS4 would sell gangbusters? Read my post again. I made no predictions on the success of the PS4.

As Kowenicki would say: wind your neck in.