glad to see the price drop helping the sales for the system, because it is a great system. now it needs price drops on the memory cards and now, still way too high. i think vita will take the top spot in japan in sales this week and maybe another week, but the 3ds will regain the top spot and keep it for a long time after the short drop to 2nd place.

No, not first week. It might sell 60k first week and then 40k and 35k the next weeks. Still not a disaster, but far from good. 

Ps3 also launced with Gundam and it's not a big system sellers, first week of price cut  the people who buy the system is people who buy just because of the price cut.

Anything below 50k for me it's not a realistic predictions

I was also expecting something similar. I think that statement of his was absurd. 30k is a great start for the Vita and even if it ends up in 20k a week, I would consider it to be decent. You can't compare to numbers that has yet to exist, instead you do it to numbers that exist and has followed a pattern.

50k would be a bad, however, we're talking about the Vita here, so that's good enough.

I'd say the same with a big stock, but we dont know the stock, we only know that sony sent 30k of Ice Silver Vita, all depend of what Sony sent for the old models.

So we have 30k of Ice silver and it's sold out all the models and colors should be more then 100k consoles so 50k it's too pessimist  i think 80k it's more realistic and it's much more less then the 3ds and ps3 effect.

The week before the 3DS price cut, sales hit an all time low of 3900 on a userbase of 1.3m. Sales jumped to 206k the next week for a 5100% increase (which is a factor of 51).

The vita ended its week prior at 11k on a userbase of 1.2m and if the same 51 factor was applied it would be 550k units. Of course it wont be that high but the factor of about 500% (50k units) that people are using seems low, but we'll find out soon enough!

True.  Maybe im looking at this from a volume standpoint. You have two different models with three different colors plus a new silver color on sale the same day all one unified price.  the 3G model will have inherent value since the price drop for that is very significant (-50%) and is most likely the one that is in greater supply.  Unless stock for all models and all colors was very very low, jumping over a 500% gain should not be difficult.  Hopefully i'm right but the Japanese market can be tricky to predict sometimes.

For all you saying it will barely hit 50k, what would your reaction be if it gets 100k+ or even 200k?