Someone leaked NPD Vita LTD numbers after the December NPD. Not FW sales then obviously.

I'm quoting Kresnik here who seemed to have kept track of the numbers:
"Huge downward adjustment in the USA for this game from the NPD numbers. Was 160k in NA before, now 73k in USA alone. Ouch =/"

Demon Souls and Batman Arkham City sold through word of mouth.

1 million will happen but 2 million wont.

Ouch indeed. So I'm guessing a 50% downward adjustment is possible for this game. Even with a downward adjustment like that, sales will still be pretty decent in the west for a JRPG and exceeding what some people predicted in that thread.

Just to clarify this a bit further: We had Persona 4 Golden at 110k pre-orders in the pre-order chart the week before it released.  We tracked first week sales at 95k, then after the NPD data got leaked, the first week sales got adjusted down to 47k and all subsequent weeks were adjusted down also as a result.

ioi explained it somewhere that JRPG's tend to get more pre-orders/first week sales than most games, which skews their data and creates bigger opening weeks than they should be.  So there could definitely be adjustments.

Also, I'm going to take this opportunity to remind the world that the 3DS numbers on this site still haven't been adjusted after December's NPD.  Do something about it, Brendude.  I've posted on ioi's wall bringing up the issue with him, but he ignored me.  You're the galaxy's last hope...!

edit: Hey look, I found my handy screenshots of the adjustments.

Before:

After:

yea likely 1m by yr.'s end. maybe

I agree with the general sentiment here - it will do 1-2M lifetime. I think there has been quite a bit of hype for this game and that + word of mouth (it IS a good game regardless of how certain fans here try to put it down) will see its sales increase with legs.

Depends on how much is shipped to be honest. If well supplied it will likely reach 1 mil.

If not we have Xenoblade.

It will be lucky to break 1.5 million lifetime sales. It's passed it's peak sales and has now been released in all major territories. Barring some kind of price drop or bundle inclusion, it will barely break 1 million at it's current pace.

I would guess ~1M-1.3M. Though, it would be cool if Sony chooses to bundle it this holiday season. As someone else suggested, maybe a Sly + Ni No Kuni Bundle for ~$199. Which could possibly be discounted to ~$150 by retailers.