Given the success of what many to consider casual titles on the 360 I wouldn't be surprised. Because of the nature of Kinect controls it can be really accessible. I don't think Microsoft are genius enough to pull of a Kinect Sports of the caliber of Wii Sports but I definitely think the potential is there.

I haven't seen many 3rd parties whom are good at creating expanded audience software. Microsoft's own attempts haven't been too stellar(More like exact rips of what Sony and Nintendo had done in that path before). I can envision so much more that could have been done with Kinect in it's current incarnation so I don't think better hardware means anything on it's own. It's going to be about developers thinking differently so I doubt it as that never seems to happen.

In short, no. The relevant question to this discussion is "What has really changed from the conditions that gave Nintendo the edge up previously?"

Wii U (tablet) might not be as innovate as motion control was back then which means the chances of Kinect winning against any Nintendo product is a bit higher than before but the change is only like from a 10% chance to a 20% chance. I doubt highly anything Microsoft does to please casuals at this point will be an amazing breakthrough (or at least enough to win against Nintendo) since it's clear, most casuals have moved on to Apple products. That's just the jist of it .

Casual gamers don't exist IMO

i'll restate what i've said before. kinect could be a really amazing experience but MS is fucking it up. they need to get over the "you are the controller" concept and realize that a majority of quality gaming experiences cannot be completely controller free. if they make a small one handed controller like sony's nav (1 analog, a button or two and a trigger) kinect would useful and fun for a ton of games.

if kinect 2.0 does finger tracking that would be awesome. i still don't think the games will be fun without a simple controller to complement it.

Sure they do. I mean, they must, or else companies have wasted tens of billions of dollars pursuing something that's all in their head. And since that surely can't be the case...

It has a chance, but it needs another important part of the equation, LOW sale price. It the NextBox + Kinect 2.0 cost less than 300 dollars, they will sold like crazy, if it is 400 dollars they will only sell decent numbers, anything above is not massive crowd frendly, so even if Kinect 2.0 is great, a lot of people will not buy it.

By that line of reasoning, the whole "smartphones will take over gaming" thing should play itself out any day now. Right?

I can see MS trying it but first we need to know what games Kinect 2.0 will bring to the table. In other to steal Wii's audience MS will need games that can not only appeal to same audience but sell on par with:

1) Mario Kart
2) Wii Sports
3) Smash Bros
4) 2D Mario
5) Wii Fit
6) Just Dance
7) 3D Mario

And all other major system sellers on the Wii. If MS don't launch those games and even though Wii U does not sell well I think it will be safe to say that Wii U poor sales will be only Nintendo's fault.

Kincet 2 will be like kincet 1. Its just a gimmick to get the younger gamers.

I don't like using the word "casual" because it doesn't have a basis IMO. It is a name that "core gamers" on the Internet use to describe games such as Wii Sports, Kinect, or Wonder Book. In reality, no one ever uses the terms "casual or core" gamer. There is a very fine line between core & casual gamers. The only real difference is that the core have more games and play more frequently. In reality, Call Of Duty is filled with casual players. Yet it is thought to be a core game. A game such as Just Dance is known as a casual game but sells in huge amounts every time a game releases. I'd say that judging by sales Just Dance has a core following. What is the difference between COD & JD? Nothing, they both have very big followers but one is considered a core game while the other is casual.

These people also are fans of specific games and may buy a System in order to play them. I don't think they have moved on but are just waiting for the next line of games they are interested in just like the core gamer. 

The belief that there are 100 Million+ core gamers and the PS3 & 360 don't have many casual buyers is ridiculous. The amount of these "casuals" far out weigh the amount of "core" gamers and no system can be a huge success without them. Without "casuals" you get GC, XB, and PS Vita sales. Only with casual support can you attain 50 Million+