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In short, no. The relevant question to this discussion is "What has really changed from the conditions that gave Nintendo the edge up previously?"

Wii U (tablet) might not be as innovate as motion control was back then which means the chances of Kinect winning against any Nintendo product is a bit higher than before but the change is only like from a 10% chance to a 20% chance. I doubt highly anything Microsoft does to please casuals at this point will be an amazing breakthrough (or at least enough to win against Nintendo) since it's clear, most casuals have moved on to Apple products. That's just the jist of it .