For the DS and NSMB it depends on the region. In Japan the DS Lite was launched three months before NSMB and the system had already taken off at that point (2006 is also the DS's record year in Japan). It's impossible to say how many systems NSMB sold, because the DS was constantly selling out its shipments from the DS Lite launch to the end of the year. In America and Europe the DS hadn't taken off and I think the DS Lite and NSMB launched in reverse order, between May-July. Either way, NSMB launched close to a hardware revision which pretty much always generates new excitement. Plus the price of admission for the system and game was $180 and €190, respectively. Half of what a Wii U with NSMBU costs. Additionally, 18 months worth of software releases which includes bargain bin opportunities. When you consider all of this, it's not really a fair comparison between NSMB and NSMBU, because there's a world of difference between the two scenarios.

Regarding cannibalisation, purchases may only be delayed. For most IPs close releases would be a really bad idea, but for a series with great legs the release date isn't much of an issue. We know that it will be a while until another Super Mario Bros. game will be released, so people will eventually draw the option to buy the NSMB they skipped due to too close releases, because they want to play another one of these games. Since the sales of these games are known to happen over a very long timeframe, we can't really draw a conclusion one way or another after only half a year of sales. A sudden rise in the popularity of the hardware itself might provide a great sustained boost to these games.

Although I really don't expect NSMB2 to sell much more than 20m units in its lifetime (so a clear drop from its predecessor), because it is one of Nintendo's most rushed/laziest efforts in the last decade.

They wouldn't announce it this soon if it wasn't coming out end of year or very early next year. You don't know Nintendo.

IDK man there have been rumors that sony and MS will have- get this- halo and uncharted ready on their next systems. 

It's undeniable that NSMB could address a huge pent-up demand that the current two NSMB games aren't able to address anymore. The same goes for other IPs. Wii Sports U won't be as big as Wii Sports either, because there isn't the same huge unfulfilled demand to tap into anymore.

If there was a game to truly replicate the Wii phenomenon, it would have to be a new IP. Nintendoland was supposed to serve as such a game, but pretty much everyone knew that it wouldn't be up to the task. Although Nintendo certainly expected more from it.

In the end you are looking at an underwhelming launch due to various factors. Price, Nintendo being unable to convey the value of this new console and controller, a lack of announced games, a lack of game releases following the launch month, a bundled game that is no Wii Sports and potential other reasons. NSMBU has an attach rate of 60 %, you can't expect much more than that. Too expensive, too few games. It's the same thing most video game systems go through in their launch year. A price drop and more games are the solution, until then it will be abysmal sales with the occasional spike. The spring releases may increase the baseline a little bit, but I doubt that the console gets into healthy territory without a price drop.

It's undeniable that NSMB could address a huge pent-up demand that the current two NSMB games aren't able to address anymore. The same goes for other IPs. Wii Sports U won't be as big as Wii Sports either, because there isn't the same huge unfulfilled demand to tap into anymore.

If there was a game to truly replicate the Wii phenomenon, it would have to be a new IP. Nintendoland was supposed to serve as such a game, but pretty much everyone knew that it wouldn't be up to the task. Although Nintendo certainly expected more from it.

In the end you are looking at an underwhelming launch due to various factors. Price, Nintendo being unable to convey the value of this new console and controller, a lack of announced games, a lack of game releases following the launch month, a bundled game that is no Wii Sports and potential other reasons. NSMBU has an attach rate of 60 %, you can't expect much more than that. Too expensive, too few games. It's the same thing most video game systems go through in their launch year. A price drop and more games are the solution, until then it will be abysmal sales with the occasional spike. The spring releases may increase the baseline a little bit, but I doubt that the console gets into healthy territory without a price drop.

I do know Nintendo and in this Nintendo Direct Iwata made it very clear that HD platform development is something foreign to them and is taking up more time then they expected. Don't expect Smash Bros, 3D Mario AND Mario Kart this year. That's just crazy to think that. These are all systems sellers and to release them all in within a timespan of 12 months would kill the Wii U's longterm success. They need to spread these out over the Wii U's lifespan. I'm guessing Smash Bros will be the last to release as that game is also for 3DS.

If the Wii was any indicator it doesn't work like that. All 3 could release in year 2 and it would be ok. Then continuing with sequels to those or new IPs Nintendo should be fine as long as they don't cut life-support early like they did with Wii all should be ok.

Since there is only one Gamepad, multiplayer games like Nintendoland and NSMBU are already being played with several Wiimotes. So that's not going to be an obstacle for Wii Sports U.

Motion controls weren't a fad. Sales died down, because Nintendo stopped releasing games. If Nintendo had come out with all guns blazing and then failed, then you could say that motion controls are a fad. But that's not how it has played out.

Calling Kinect the new big thing and following it up with "it doesn't sell well outside the holidays" is a contradiction. Unless you said that as further evidence that motion controls were a fad, but Kinect really isn't in the same ballpark as the Wii, because it's so limited.

As for your last sentence, yes, that's basically what I said in my post.

@happydolphin: I think we've reached a conclusion here, so see you in another thread at another time.

You really think they would do sequels to these games? Its unlikely since this is thier first HD console and development takes much longer. Besides releasing multiple Mario Kart games on 1 system doesn't make sense. Neither does Smash bros. 3D Mario is the only possibility of receiving a sequel but it all depends on how the first sells and how Wii U itself is selling at the time as well. Wii U isn't the Wii.

I don't think anybody expected Shin Megami Tensei vs Fire Emblem.

Or Zelda: Wind Waker remake.

Or new Yoshi title blending classic Yoshi style with Epic Yarn style.

Or for the new Monolith Soft title to actually be shown with video, etc.

But most importantly, think about this: This is just for JANUARY's Nintendo Direct. There'll be at least three more before E3, and these are the announcements that they didn't feel were worth holding onto until E3. Now think about what they ARE keeping quiet for E3.