VGC preorders aren't really trustworthy.

I'm thinking that most AC fans aren't really the pre order type.  I myself have only pre ordered about 2-3 games in my life.  I believe most will probably go to the stores when it is launched and buy the game.  One had no idea the AC craze that was about to hit Japan upon release of New Leaf if simply trying to read about it on the internet.  It wasn't till after its release when stories about its success were put out.  I can't even find info on how many pre orders the Japanese had for the game, and it has already surpassed 2m in that region. 

1.The sharp decline of other titles aimed at the 3DS female base. (Nintendogs, Brain Age isnt out yet, but I don't think it'll do anywhere near the original numbers.) Oh uhh Style Savvy?

2. The purchase of NL by mostly JP females, who make up 31% of all 3ds owners. The female base of NA should be lower, like way lower. I have not seen 31% install bases here.

3.Marketing, marketing, marketing. If Nintendo can market this well, it'll sell well. Considering the need for some better WiiU marketing and more focus in that are for the upcoming months, I doubt we'll see many commercials for an AC game.

None of that explains your prediction of 1.2 million. And pointing at "females" is like pointing at "casuals" - it's an invalid argument that is based on your preconceptions instead of on actual information.

You compare Animal Crossing with games like Nintendogs, Brain Age, and Style Savvy. Nintendogs is a very different game, targetted primarily at children (remember, the 3DS has a "minimum age" thing attached to it). Style Savvy was released on the DS in 2008, when it had a huge install base. The 3DS has a smaller install base, and the 3DS version has been selling almost as well as the DS version did.

More importantly, you claim that Animal Crossing is targeted at females. What is your basis for that claim? The gender split in Japan? Japan is not the same as the rest of the world. It is not targeted at females, but at people.

The Entertainment Software Association determined at the start of last year that 42% of American gamers are female. Given that Nintendo consoles have historically had higher female ownership than the other consoles, it's fair to predict that it is likely to be no lower than 42% for the 3DS. This places it higher than in Japan. So I'm not sure where you get the idea that the female base in America should be lower, "like way lower".

As for marketing, the marketing of a game like AC is very different from the marketing of the Wii U. Where one involves convincing people who don't own the Wii U to shell out over $300 for the system, plus the cost of at least one game, the other simply requires them to market a $40 (or less) game to people who own a 3DS. That could be done as easily as putting a trailer for the game on Nintendo Video on the 3DS itself, and perhaps sending a... I think it's called Swapnote in America... letter to each 3DS system that is connected to the net.

As for marketing, the marketing of a game like AC is very different from the marketing of the Wii U. Where one involves convincing people who don't own the Wii U to shell out over $300 for the system, plus the cost of at least one game, the other simply requires them to market a $40 (or less) game to people who own a 3DS. That could be done as easily as putting a trailer for the game on Nintendo Video on the 3DS itself, and perhaps sending a... I think it's called Swapnote in America... letter to each 3DS system that is connected to the net.

So we all know how well Animal Crossing is doing in Japan. But some part of me can't shake the fact that other regions might not be as accepting of another "casual" title. Nintendogs fell from 24mil sold to a measly 2 million, and I suspect that most of that is pertained to girls who moved from DS's to mobile or FB games. 

AC wasn't even that large in NA or EU and 60% of purchasers in JP of AC are female.

I sure don't see many girls carrying around 3DS's yet.

With facebook games like Farmville and mobile others as the replacement for games like AC, might we end up with another gigantic decrease in units sold in regions expect Japan?