Will Animal Crossing face the same fate as Nintendogs or Brain Training?

[Otakumegane]

Aielyn said:

Otakumegane said:
My reasoning? Ok.

1.The sharp decline of other titles aimed at the 3DS female base. (Nintendogs, Brain Age isnt out yet, but I don't think it'll do anywhere near the original numbers.) Oh uhh Style Savvy?

2. The purchase of NL by mostly JP females, who make up 31% of all 3ds owners. The female base of NA should be lower, like way lower. I have not seen 31% install bases here.

3.Marketing, marketing, marketing. If Nintendo can market this well, it'll sell well. Considering the need for some better WiiU marketing and more focus in that are for the upcoming months, I doubt we'll see many commercials for an AC game.

None of that explains your prediction of 1.2 million. And pointing at "females" is like pointing at "casuals" - it's an invalid argument that is based on your preconceptions instead of on actual information.

You compare Animal Crossing with games like Nintendogs, Brain Age, and Style Savvy. Nintendogs is a very different game, targetted primarily at children (remember, the 3DS has a "minimum age" thing attached to it). Style Savvy was released on the DS in 2008, when it had a huge install base. The 3DS has a smaller install base, and the 3DS version has been selling almost as well as the DS version did.

More importantly, you claim that Animal Crossing is targeted at females. What is your basis for that claim? The gender split in Japan? Japan is not the same as the rest of the world. It is not targeted at females, but at people.

The Entertainment Software Association determined at the start of last year that 42% of American gamers are female. Given that Nintendo consoles have historically had higher female ownership than the other consoles, it's fair to predict that it is likely to be no lower than 42% for the 3DS. This places it higher than in Japan. So I'm not sure where you get the idea that the female base in America should be lower, "like way lower".

As for marketing, the marketing of a game like AC is very different from the marketing of the Wii U. Where one involves convincing people who don't own the Wii U to shell out over $300 for the system, plus the cost of at least one game, the other simply requires them to market a $40 (or less) game to people who own a 3DS. That could be done as easily as putting a trailer for the game on Nintendo Video on the 3DS itself, and perhaps sending a... I think it's called Swapnote in America... letter to each 3DS system that is connected to the net.

Well, we'll see if it sells here. I for one am mighty curious if the power of this franschise is stronger than I think it is. I highly, HIGHLY doubt that 42% of 3DS owners in NA are female currently, based on my streetpass counts over the past year. Maybe that will change with this and Pokemon. I do foresee a decrease  in sales here however, I just hope it isn't as large as I think it will be.

Edit: Nintendo consoles having a larger female ownership is highly attributed to the popularity of the Wii, and even there sales shrunk from 1.9m (GC) to 1.5m (CIty Folk) million units sold (Note that City Folk was relased in 2008, when the Wii was booming). If that what I fear is true, the 1.5m NA lifetime sales may shrink further. Of course the DS AC sold 2.43 million in NA and we have no other instance of an AC on a handheld, but there will be a decrease, the question is, how large?