| Jay520 said:
Keep in mind that consoles are usually discontinued when they only sell 1-3m units a year. |
I take your silence as bitter acceptance.
| torok said: Don't know if it will pass Wii, but the emerging markets will help. I'm in Brazil and can tell you that no one here wants a Wii. It is considered obsolete here, you only see PS3 and 360 in stores. Websites e-mail offers don't come with nothing about the Wii anymore, so it could give PS3 a shot at that mark. In this kind of market, a PS4 launch won't change anything. PS3 only started selling really 2 years ago here, when the price became better. In emerging markets, PS3 legs will surpass PS2 simply because PS3 is more expensive than PS2 was in the same time frame. A PS3 costs US$ 500~600 here and that is too expensive. The PS2 cost was around US$ 350~400 in 2005 and the piracy made it a more affordable alternative than PS3 is today (new games cost US$85~100, older titles are around US$40~50). 360 will sell well here for long too. I predict that PS4/720 won't be relevant in emerging markets until 2016 (with a 2013 launch). PS360 sales will probably increase here by a healthy margin in the next 3 years. Comparing shipments it with PS2, PS2 have 104 million units in 2006 (http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/PlayStation_2) and PS3 will probably have somethinh around 75~77 around March. So PS3 is having roughly 75% of PS2 shipments. Calculating by an aproximated 150 million PS2 lifetime sales, we have 112 millions for PS2, what looks even a good prediction because PS3 may have longer legs because of the higher price point when comparing it with PS2 at the same time. |
This is worth the read, coming from a consumer's perspective in a totally different market.
Panama said:
Wikipedia had PS3 numbers surpassing the 360 as of September 2012, and now you have IDC releasing their stats. I don't even know who to listen to anymore, just seems like individuals throwing estimates around. |
Cant like anyone edit Wikipedia?
pezus said:
Nah man, PS3 isn't the Wii |
Exactly. Besides we don't even know if PS4 will launch this holilday and if it doesn't then 2014 could be another great year in sales.
I think people will be surprissed at how much of an effect Grand Theft Auto V has on sustaining current-gen console sales. Combine that with the PS3 exclusives like God of War and The Last of Us then COD and AC in the holidays....there's no way PS3 can drop below 10m this year.
| GameAnalyser said: The problem being most of them posting comments on this thread are considering PS3 sales to go down the drain immediately with the launch of next-gen consoles. This however will not be the case. That's why prices are cut and that undeniably would be the sole sustaining factor for the consoles to survive the late-phase in their cycle. PS3 has outsold Wii U 59 % from launch. Xbox 720 or PS4 being a GPU powerhouse 4 or 5 times stronger than their predecessor is not going to create a dent in the sales. However, it would be idiotic to say that there won't be any decline at all. PS2 continued to sell at a respectable rate even in 2007 when God of WAR 2 was the priced exclusive. Many consumers at the E3 2006 expo were held back at the idea to buy the then next gen consoles (360 or PS3) when GOW 2 could pull an amazing feat on PS2. The large chunk of growing user-base in Europe and Japan will continue to contribute for the sales of both PS3 hardware and software units for a longer period. This could be owing to its multiple quality exclusives. MGS4, God of War 3 and many JRPGs will still find a gaming audience. I'm not excluding Americas and other regions under the EMEA as there will be a minimal yet sustainable contribution from them too. And this makes a mention about how Sony‘s marketing failures in the region proved costly against its competitors. But over the longer period certain lessons were learnt and they rectified some of them beginning with the launch of the slim model in 2009 at a competitive price. The price point will be reduced to a level appealing to the mass-market until 2016. This post is also targeting at those who believe that PS3 will never surpass Wii. How are Wii and Wii U doing currently in comparison to PS3? What are the reasons for them doing so? These are the questions one need to know the answers to, before blatantly opposing the probabilities put forth by articles such as by this thread’s title as well. |
It won't pass the Wii due to a number of factors, for one this isn't the PS2 that console had no alternative while the PS3 has the 360 around which shares a lot of it's games with a superior online service where as PS2 had a library almost entirely of exclusives you couldn't get anywhere else. Wii U is a newly launched console and has yet to really get it's supply chain flowing and big guns out yet in 6 weeks it shifted 2.5m which only the Wii itself has sold more at launch in fact it's only a few K short of what the Wii sold back at launch, comparing PS3's current sales to a launch machine and using it as a basis is flawed because both 360 and PS3 were outsold at their launch by PS2 for months before they began pushing forward. For starters the U has outsold the PS3 every week in Japan since launch and that in itself is a problem for the PS3's long term sales because most of PS2's sales in the HD era were from Japan as eastern developers still released games on it for a while after 2007 and with the U becoming Japan's choice of platform this early on it will cause further sales drops when the PS4 arrives.
Brand power of the Playstation name has obviously changed since the PS2 as well, PS1 dominanted the market and that domination was built on by the PS2, PS3 however faltered and has not only lost the brand's market leader status but been given a hard fought run for it's money it's no longer the go to brand for gaming. Yeah it's having a late surge in sales recently but is that due to the PS3's strentghs or the fact that MS and Nintendo are in transition for the next gen because once these two get the ball rolling again I don't see the PS3 maintaining any of the current momentum which where the PS4 will have to come in.
People are expecting the sales of PS3 to drop more drastically then the PS2 because the whole situation is different, this is late in a gen which has been a difficult one for them with new hardware turning up possibly this very year and a difference in brand power and stronger competition. Even now Wii is selling around 200k a week despite having support cut by Nintendo so it's not like the PS3 has a static target either.
Ps3 will be lucky to sell over 9m this year... 360 7.5m at Max.
New Gen is coming, this gen will die as soon as new consoles are announced.
Look at Wii.
The playstation 4 and nextbox will have to have absolutely terrible launches for that to happen. The wii still sells well over the holidays so it should pass the official playstation 1 shipments within a year or 2. The playstation 3 has already shown its in decline, from actual data we know. And I don't believe that source's guestimate of 77mil shipped anymore then I would believe vgchartz if they said the playstation 3 sold 2mil during christmas week.
If the playstation 4 and nextbox arrive dead on arrival, and I mean vita dead on arrival, maybe theres a chance that the much lower prices ps3 and 360 will keep selling, with the ps3 selling more ofc. But even then I don't see the playstation 3 passing either the playstation or wii. And considering that is absolute best case scenrio, I'm going to say no.
pezus said:
For the whole year? Here's something interesting for you |
I know about THAT, but I'm too lazy (and stupid - but mostly lazy) to figure out the fall in %
I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!
Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.
pezus said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2012/Global/
|
Ooooh! THAT'S helpfull :D
I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!
Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.
People here really try to predict PS3 performance without a perspective about emerging markets where Wii U/PS4/720 won't matter at least until 2016 because of pricing issues. Wii legs died because it won't be a option in emerging markets, while PS360 will enjoy healthy sales in that area. PS4 and 720 won't matter in the same manner that PS3, Wii and 360 were massively outselled by PS2 at least until last year on these markets.
| Wyrdness said:
It won't pass the Wii due to a number of factors, for one this isn't the PS2 that console had no alternative while the PS3 has the 360 around which shares a lot of it's games with a superior online service where as PS2 had a library almost entirely of exclusives you couldn't get anywhere else. Wii U is a newly launched console and has yet to really get it's supply chain flowing and big guns out yet in 6 weeks it shifted 2.5m which only the Wii itself has sold more at launch in fact it's only a few K short of what the Wii sold back at launch, comparing PS3's current sales to a launch machine and using it as a basis is flawed because both 360 and PS3 were outsold at their launch by PS2 for months before they began pushing forward. For starters the U has outsold the PS3 every week in Japan since launch and that in itself is a problem for the PS3's long term sales because most of PS2's sales in the HD era were from Japan as eastern developers still released games on it for a while after 2007 and with the U becoming Japan's choice of platform this early on it will cause further sales drops when the PS4 arrives. |
Launch sales aren't a good indicator. We have a thread here with launch numbers and they don't provide any usefull information. If they did, Vita should outsell both PS3 and X360 lifetime figures combined.
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. Not the PSP either. It won't drop that much simply because it will be supported for a long time with multiplatform games and exclusives.
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