By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo - Which 3DS Title will have the most Lifetime software sales by Years End?

 

#1 3DS game will be.....

Animal Crossing New Leaf 10 7.58%
 
Mario Kart 7 15 11.36%
 
Luigi's Mansion 1 0.76%
 
Super Mario 3D Land 29 21.97%
 
Pokemon X/Y 64 48.48%
 
New Super Mario Bros 2 11 8.33%
 
This prediction will be so close! 2 1.52%
 
Total:132
fedfed said:
do you really think that Pokemon can do 10mil in 2 months? I am I missing something? I will say SM3DL - NSMB2 MK7!



Yes it can..... http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/game_comparison.php?reg=Global&ending=Cumulative&game[]=Pok%26%2365533%3Bmon+Black+%2F+White+Version+%28DS%29+[44573]&game[]=Pok%26%2365533%3Bmon+Diamond+%2F+Pearl+Version+%28DS%29+[4022]&game[]=&game[]= Wat you see is Japan only sales of Black/White and Diamond/Pearl! Black/White sold over 2.5mil its first week! Also gen 6 looks to be the most hyped since Gen 2!



Around the Network

Yeah I guess I am just basing myself on B2/W2 sales and they aren't astonishing!



Switch!!!

I'll make predictions for each of the 6 games. I've already done Pokemon in your other thread (http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5014674), and am expecting that to end at 10.3 million at the end of 2013, so that's set pretty well.

Then the 3 other games that have a real chance of being the top seller are MK7, SM3DLand and NSMB2. Let's look at how well DS games did in the past, and base it of that.

It's unlikely that either of the 3 3DS games will sell more than 5 million in 2013. Neither Mario Kart DS nor NSMB DS ever managed to sell 5 million outside of their launch year, although they were reasonably close. On the other hand, Brain Training, Brain Training 2 and Nintendogs all did. It seems that all the DS games had a second-year of 4-5 million (barring Nintendogs, which did 6.7, and Mario Kart DS, which started out rather slowly).  However, the 3DS isn't performing quite as amazingly as the DS did. The 3DS is looking to sell somewhere between 13 and 20 million this year, which is great, but quite low compared to the DS' 30 million in 2007 and 2008.

As such, I view selling 5 million as out of the question for any of the 3 Marios. This is further proven by that 3DLand and MK7 sold "only" 3.5 million in 2012. Therefore, I'd put their range as being 3-4 million for 2013, with NSMB 2 selling best, MK7 second and 3D Land last.  Putting it into numbers, that's something ala 3.8 million for NSMB 2, 3.5 million for MK7 and 3.2 million for 3D Land, which puts the top 4 3DS games at the end of the year at

1. Super Mario 3D Land - 11.2 million
2. Mario Kart 7 - 10.9 million
3. Pokemon Y/X - 10.3 million
4. New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 8.9 million

Luigi's mansion shouldn't be anywhere near those levels. Based on how little the original sold, I'd say that 5 million lifetime is probably the upper range of what you can expect from it. It's going to be more front-loaded than the other games on the list, though, so 3 million first year isn't out of the question, although that's probably high-end, too. Luigi's mansion is going to end 2013 lower than both Nintendogs & Cats and Ocarina of Time 3DS.

Finally, New Leaf is a tricky one. Outside of the initial launch, it's tracking slightly below Wild World in Japan, so I don't think it's going to outleg its DS counterpart. 2 million for 2013 seems likely. I don't see any reasons as to why it should be much more popular than Wild World in the west, either, so a similar launch year of slightly over 1 million in Europe, and slightly under 1 million in Americas, seems likely. Putting it at 4 million total for 2013, and 6 million in total.

5. Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 6 million
6. Nintendogs + Cats - 3.6 million
7. Ocarina of Time 3DS - 3.3 million
8. Luigi's Mansion 2 - 2.7 million



fedfed said:
Yeah I guess I am just basing myself on B2/W2 sales and they aren't astonishing!


What do you mean, it's a sequel, not a new generation

It was also released on a dead hardware



tbone51 said:
007BondAgent said:
tbone51 said:
007BondAgent said:
I wouldn't be surprised if Pokemon sold about 15m by years end

it will most likely be bundled, and it's being released in the holidays

Hell, i think it will do 8m just in it's first week, if not more



Woah 8mil first week! How about 4-5mil first week if bundled lol, thats too high! but hey i hope the same thing :p

It will do 3m in japan alone, should do around 2.5m in north america and the rest will bring it up to 8m



Hmmm.... Hey can you do something for me? http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/game_comparison.php Go here and check out pokemon black/white and compare to diamond/pearl so we can see how well it did week one! (which is japan only) oh yea i cant do this, it doesn't work for me, thats y im asking u


You can see black and white stated alot better, but started lagging behind, and that has to do with the ds declining



Around the Network
007BondAgent said:
fedfed said:
Yeah I guess I am just basing myself on B2/W2 sales and they aren't astonishing!


What do you mean, it's a sequel, not a new generation

It was also released on a dead hardware

well I know but still a main Pokemon game I thought and a dead console with 150mil sold in its pocket  is a way better situation of any console for any pokemon release ever!

Buty I am not an expert in Pokemon so I trust you all guys!



Switch!!!

fedfed said:
007BondAgent said:
fedfed said:
Yeah I guess I am just basing myself on B2/W2 sales and they aren't astonishing!


What do you mean, it's a sequel, not a new generation

It was also released on a dead hardware

well I know but still a main Pokemon game I thought and a dead console with 150mil sold in its pocket  is a way better situation of any console for any pokemon release ever!

Buty I am not an expert in Pokemon so I trust you all guys!

It's like final fantasy xiii-2

It isn't going to sell as much, because it's sequel rather then a new game completely

Plus it's tracking way ahead of platinum which was the previous sequel



007BondAgent said:
fedfed said:
007BondAgent said:
fedfed said:
Yeah I guess I am just basing myself on B2/W2 sales and they aren't astonishing!


What do you mean, it's a sequel, not a new generation

It was also released on a dead hardware

well I know but still a main Pokemon game I thought and a dead console with 150mil sold in its pocket  is a way better situation of any console for any pokemon release ever!

Buty I am not an expert in Pokemon so I trust you all guys!

It's like final fantasy xiii-2

It isn't going to sell as much, because it's sequel rather then a new game completely

Plus it's tracking way ahead of platinum which was the previous sequel


THANKS! NOW IT IS ALL CLEAR!!!!!

 

Still SM3DL will sell 10 mil before Pokemon!



Switch!!!

fedfed said:
007BondAgent said:
fedfed said:
007BondAgent said:
fedfed said:
Yeah I guess I am just basing myself on B2/W2 sales and they aren't astonishing!


What do you mean, it's a sequel, not a new generation

It was also released on a dead hardware

well I know but still a main Pokemon game I thought and a dead console with 150mil sold in its pocket  is a way better situation of any console for any pokemon release ever!

Buty I am not an expert in Pokemon so I trust you all guys!

It's like final fantasy xiii-2

It isn't going to sell as much, because it's sequel rather then a new game completely

Plus it's tracking way ahead of platinum which was the previous sequel


THANKS! NOW IT IS ALL CLEAR!!!!!

 

Still SM3DL will sell 10 mil before Pokemon!



True TRUE.... pokemon will com e 2nd or 3rd depending if mario kart 7 (talking about hitting 10mil) hits it before Nov or beginning of dec. NSMB2 has potential to sell 4-6mil this year but we'll see ...



Either Super Mario 3D Land or Mario Kart 7 will end the year as the #1. If only because of their massive head start.

I don't see Mario 3D Land selling over 11m at the end of this year. Sales will flat out significantly as history has shown, including the most similar selling 3D Mario; Galaxy 1. With a little luck, it'll end the year at just over 10m, but even that is anything but a certainty.

I think NSMB2 will gain a lot of ground this year, it's sales will flat out slower than 3D Land's on the virtue of it being a 2D Mario, and being newer than 3D Land. It won't overtake it yet, but it will have the biggest sales numbers for the year. Mario Kart 7 might overtake 3D Land this year as the top seller, but I guess it will virtually be a tie. Even though 3D Land started out as the better seller, the Mario Kart franchise has proven itself to remain popular the longest. It's legs will start to show.

Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion will both do good, but it the same order. Animal Crossing will put a couple of million on top of the existing 2.3m Japanese sales, but higher than 6m at the end of the year is unlikely. Luigi will be no where near the big games of the year, but for what it is it will do well. Pre-orders seem to be very good so far, and the while the original was met with skepticism, I think the game got more recognition over time. Still, I don't see more than 3m sales for the end of the year, with the original's LTD possible in the end. It will remain beneath both Nintendogs and Ocarina of Time at least for this year.

Finally, Pokémon. I agree that the game will be severely hyped, primarily because this game finally takes the franchise to 3D. That, combined with the global launch, ensures massive first week numbers. Perhaps one of the biggest ever seen on a handheld (what is that by the way?). However, two months is not a lot, and nearly everyone who is hyped for this game will get in the first two/three weeks. Making it a very front loaded game. I feel it's definitely possible it will have 6m first week sales, but it likely won't go past 9m and definitely not past 10m.

At the end of the day (well, year), the chart looks like this:

1 Super Mario 3D Land - 10.0m
2 Mario Kart 7 - 10.0m
3 New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 9.2m
4 Pokémon X/Y - 8.9m
5 Animal Crossing New Leaf - 5.8m
6 Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 3.3m
7 Nintendogs - 3.1m
8 Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon - 2.8m

Whatever happens though, it'll be impressive nonetheless .