Which 3DS Title will have the most Lifetime software sales by Years End?

[S.Peelman]

Either Super Mario 3D Land or Mario Kart 7 will end the year as the #1. If only because of their massive head start.

I don't see Mario 3D Land selling over 11m at the end of this year. Sales will flat out significantly as history has shown, including the most similar selling 3D Mario; Galaxy 1. With a little luck, it'll end the year at just over 10m, but even that is anything but a certainty.

I think NSMB2 will gain a lot of ground this year, it's sales will flat out slower than 3D Land's on the virtue of it being a 2D Mario, and being newer than 3D Land. It won't overtake it yet, but it will have the biggest sales numbers for the year. Mario Kart 7 might overtake 3D Land this year as the top seller, but I guess it will virtually be a tie. Even though 3D Land started out as the better seller, the Mario Kart franchise has proven itself to remain popular the longest. It's legs will start to show.

Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion will both do good, but it the same order. Animal Crossing will put a couple of million on top of the existing 2.3m Japanese sales, but higher than 6m at the end of the year is unlikely. Luigi will be no where near the big games of the year, but for what it is it will do well. Pre-orders seem to be very good so far, and the while the original was met with skepticism, I think the game got more recognition over time. Still, I don't see more than 3m sales for the end of the year, with the original's LTD possible in the end. It will remain beneath both Nintendogs and Ocarina of Time at least for this year.

Finally, Pokémon. I agree that the game will be severely hyped, primarily because this game finally takes the franchise to 3D. That, combined with the global launch, ensures massive first week numbers. Perhaps one of the biggest ever seen on a handheld (what is that by the way?). However, two months is not a lot, and nearly everyone who is hyped for this game will get in the first two/three weeks. Making it a very front loaded game. I feel it's definitely possible it will have 6m first week sales, but it likely won't go past 9m and definitely not past 10m.

At the end of the day (well, year), the chart looks like this:

1 Super Mario 3D Land - 10.0m
2 Mario Kart 7 - 10.0m
3 New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 9.2m
4 Pokémon X/Y - 8.9m
5 Animal Crossing New Leaf - 5.8m
6 Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 3.3m
7 Nintendogs - 3.1m
8 Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon - 2.8m

Whatever happens though, it'll be impressive nonetheless .