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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013

 

Thoughts?

No chance. The Wii U will... 415 53.34%
 
I agree, the Wii U will s... 363 46.66%
 
Total:778
Mazty said:
bdbdbd said:
It's going to top 10M in CY 2013. Wii U should have atleast one AAA title to boost the sales before the end of march; Wii Fit U.


Will that boost sales? I can't see people feeling the need to upgrade wii fit to wii u fit. It's not like you bought Wii Fit for the graphics, so why upgrade? This is the major downside nintendo never considered when they focused on the casual audience; getting them to upgrade when you are no longer the "in" gadget is incredibly difficult. 

It's not the graphic increase but the little device it comes with that is going to be the sales driver.   Go look up the game.  It's kind of intriguing.  Certainly not the level the first game was but it should sell well.



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Viper1 said:
Mazty said:
Viper1 said:
You're crazy.


It depends. If the first few months with 2013 are littered with announcements for new iphones/samsung phones/next box etc there is a chance that the wiiu could sell less then 7m. A slim chance though as it's already hit 2m. I estimate that the life sales of the WiiU will put it somewhere inbetween the GC and N64, as long as 2013/2014 sees another console release and a continued popularity in iPhone/Nexus/etc products. 


I actually don't think those things will matter very much.  The people that want a Wii U are not going to suddenly decide not to get one just because some new phone (with the tiniest increase in something new over the last phone ) was announced.

New console announcements....maybe.   But largely it seems that consoles sales tend to be not be deterred too much by competitor consoles these days.   All 3 last gen consoles over 70 million.  

The thing is you have to consider who wants a wii u. All I can think of is die hard Nintendo fans. Anyone who is a casual who enjoyed the wii is probably more inclined to play on a tablet/phone then cash out on a console. Are there really many die hard Nintendo fans left? The Wii would have deterred many new potential fans by offering the least of the 3 systems, meaning that gamers will most likely already have a 360/ps3, and therefore why upgrade to something which ash the "tiniest increase in something over the last" console?



Mario Kart 8, Wii Fit U and the next 3D Mario, all of which will be marketed to insanity, will ensure it'll take off like crazy later this year, setting it on the path to sustained great sales. I'm pretty sure of it.



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Well, until Pikmin, the year is pretty bare, I expect sales to slow until E3.




Mazty said:



Viper1 said:




Mazty said:




Viper1 said:
You're crazy.




It depends. If the first few months with 2013 are littered with announcements for new iphones/samsung phones/next box etc there is a chance that the wiiu could sell less then 7m. A slim chance though as it's already hit 2m. I estimate that the life sales of the WiiU will put it somewhere inbetween the GC and N64, as long as 2013/2014 sees another console release and a continued popularity in iPhone/Nexus/etc products. 





I actually don't think those things will matter very much.  The people that want a Wii U are not going to suddenly decide not to get one just because some new phone (with the tiniest increase in something new over the last phone ) was announced.
New console announcements....maybe.   But largely it seems that consoles sales tend to be not be deterred too much by competitor consoles these days.   All 3 last gen consoles over 70 million.  




The thing is you have to consider who wants a wii u. All I can think of is die hard Nintendo fans. Anyone who is a casual who enjoyed the wii is probably more inclined to play on a tablet/phone then cash out on a console. Are there really many die hard Nintendo fans left? The Wii would have deterred many new potential fans by offering the least of the 3 systems, meaning that gamers will most likely already have a 360/ps3, and therefore why upgrade to something which ash the "tiniest increase in something over the last" console?

While it may be amazing for you to believe, most gamers aren't interested in this "tiny increase" you are talking about, which i'm assuming you mean processing power. A lot of gamers will buy the Wii u for its Nintendo franchises, others will buy it for its innovations, something you won't find elsewhere.



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peachbuggy said:

While it may be amazing for you to believe, most gamers aren't interested in this "tiny increase" you are talking about, which i'm assuming you mean processing power. A lot of gamers will buy the Wii u for its Nintendo franchises, others will buy it for its innovations, something you won't find elsewhere.


Actually you just backed up what I said - the people who want the wii u are existing die hard fans of nintendo, not jimmy-who-lives-on-CoD.

Innovations? What innovations? Don't forget about smartglass and the vita/ps3 hybrid...

End of the day, the controller setup is tried, tested and now tired. We need something radically different. Motion controls are not radically different - they are just baseless joysticks. If we are to have motion controls, we need sensory feedback so that you feel as if you are holding something and feel your sword rebound off of a solid surface. Adding a 2nd screen is just nothing special whatsoever. 



I'd expect about 8.5 million in sales for next year.

I think it will follow a similar pattern to the 3DS ... disasterous Q1 2013 sales, Iwata apologizes to investors, sluggish Q2 2013, Nintendo rolls up their sleeves at E3 and slashes the price by $50, promises 3D Mario + Mario Kart 8 for fall 2013, fall sales are solid. People want the big guns, Pikmin and Rayman don't cut the mustard. 

I will also add I think Wii Fit U will be a big sales dissapointment, much like Brain Training and Nintendogs on 3DS (relative to previous installments). That casual crowd is not paying $350 for some new Wii Fit minigames. 



Viper1 said:
Mazty said:
bdbdbd said:
It's going to top 10M in CY 2013. Wii U should have atleast one AAA title to boost the sales before the end of march; Wii Fit U.


Will that boost sales? I can't see people feeling the need to upgrade wii fit to wii u fit. It's not like you bought Wii Fit for the graphics, so why upgrade? This is the major downside nintendo never considered when they focused on the casual audience; getting them to upgrade when you are no longer the "in" gadget is incredibly difficult. 

It's not the graphic increase but the little device it comes with that is going to be the sales driver.   Go look up the game.  It's kind of intriguing.  Certainly not the level the first game was but it should sell well.

The issue is that if we consider the majority of wii fit owners are housewives, they don't give a toss about a pedometer because the wii fit still works for them, and no pedometer is worth $350+. 

Think about it this way - you don't upgrade dumbbells. 



Cheebee said:

Mario Kart 8, Wii Fit U and the next 3D Mario, all of which will be marketed to insanity, will ensure it'll take off like crazy later this year, setting it on the path to sustained great sales. I'm pretty sure of it.


Depends. If it looks like Mario Kart Wii, then it won't. In fact it'll make more people think that the Wii U is just a pad for wii games. We have all seemed to have forgotten that the Wii U launched with one of the biggest selling franchise games of the Wii, and yet sales have yet to take off. I don't see why other less popular franchises will work if NSMBU didn't.



My guess is they will push 3D Mario (EAD Tokyo), Wii Sports U, and Mario Kart U as their "big three" for the holidays.