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Forums - Website Topics - The Credibility of VGChartz

You should add to your text that PS2 has actually outshipped DS during last two quarters. That fact alone makes it impossible that DS has overtaken PS2 suddenly.



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kowenicki said:

I think you are being too conservative.  Supply wouldnt be 450k for a console selling such low nimbers. I'd say supply would 200k at the absolute maximum. So shipped less 200k (max)= sold through.

I think the 450k is 3 x 150k per quarter. I think that's what he meant there. Since the march report, if we add the shipment figures, we would need to subtract 450k, I believe that's what he was saying.

It would be nice to have something more analogue, that actually has a percentage given the shipment values.

EDIT: I mixed up my scales... I think he meant 150k per month.



kowenicki said:
PS2 shipments to end of March 2012 are 157.9m (source Sony financials - UP TO DATE AND CHECKED)

Since then I reckon;

June 2012 - 1.1m
Sept 2012 - 1.0m

So a nice round 160.0m


If VGChartz won't track PS2 anymore, there isn't a problem. But at least, they should update it using the shipped data from March 2012 and wait for next financials to update it again (probably the last PS2 shipments, so it will stay accurate).



man-bear-pig said:
Vgchartz do still track the PS2's numbers - TrunksWD said so himself.



Therefore, the article about the Nintendo DS becoming the highest selling console of all time was CORRECT.

/thread.

You are literally the only person left on the site who is holding that thought. Read the thread. Read it. Look at the evidence against the article and numbers.

Look at what trunks posted in this thread - " The majority of PS2 sales right now are in smaller regions that we don't have hard data on."

While VGChartz may or may not still track PS2, its clear that the said tracking is way off the mark.



                            

Carl - can you link me where Sony said Ps3 was down YoY because that just does not add up. Ps2 shipments were in a decline all last year and sony only shipped 900k during 4th quarter and 600k 1st quarter. Ps2 shipping 1 million in the 2nd quarter (more than 4th quarter shipments) after being in a decline 4 quarters in a row would be nuts.



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kowenicki said:

I think you are being too conservative.  Supply wouldnt be 450k for a console selling such low nimbers. I'd say supply would 200k at the absolute maximum. So shipped less 200k (max)= sold through.

I originally had ~350k down but it looked too small a number.

If its shipping/selling ~333k a Month, we can average that to what... 80k a Week? 200k would be an average of 17 days supply right?

On the other hand. 80k a Week for a 12 Year old piece of hardware just looks odd did I do something wrong?



                            

Carl2291 said:
kowenicki said:

I think you are being too conservative.  Supply wouldnt be 450k for a console selling such low nimbers. I'd say supply would 200k at the absolute maximum. So shipped less 200k (max)= sold through.

I originally had ~350k down but it looked too small a number.

If its shipping/selling ~333k a Month, we can average that to what... 80k a Week? 200k would be an average of 17 days supply right?

On the other hand. 80k a Week for a 12 Year old piece of hardware just looks odd did I do something wrong?


I have no reason to believe people would buy more Ps2's in April-June than in Oct-Dec. If I were you I would be conservative in Ps2's shipments. One reason being so if you are underestimating then the numbers look better than what people have been led to believe looks more impressive. Rather then if you overestimate you would look silly for calling VGC out while being wrong yourself

I'd say best case scenario for Ps2 would be 600k each quarter. Sustaining shipments from Sony's Q4 report instead of the trend of declining sales



Carl2291 said:
kowenicki said:

I think you are being too conservative.  Supply wouldnt be 450k for a console selling such low nimbers. I'd say supply would 200k at the absolute maximum. So shipped less 200k (max)= sold through.

I originally had ~350k down but it looked too small a number.

If its shipping/selling ~333k a Month, we can average that to what... 80k a Week? 200k would be an average of 17 days supply right?

On the other hand. 80k a Week for a 12 Year old piece of hardware just looks odd did I do something wrong?

Why not use a rough daily average, and then multiply. For example, 1m over a quarter, with 3 months in a quarter, averaged out to 90 days, we have

11.11k a day. 200k would require 18 calendar days (interpolated).



kowenicki said:
PS2 shipments to end of March 2012 are 157.9m (source Sony financials - UP TO DATE AND CHECKED)

Since then I reckon;

June 2012 - 1.1m
Sept 2012 - 1.0m

So a nice round 160.0m


Would you do the same math for vita? ioi will listen u to i guess so you might as well do the vita numbers 



ioi said:

Hmm, just got back from a break to find this thread. We haven't been actively (i.e on a weekly basis) tracking PS2 sales since things switched earlier this year so yes, the PS2 numbers are now outdated and a few million below where they should be. William has clearly jumped the gun and posted the article without checking first.

A general note on data - we basically have two systems, one that tracks weekly sales and one that tracks totals - this is the easiest way to provide totals data for games and hardware that we don't have weekly tracking for (older stuff generally). This should explain why data updates in some cases and not in others. Weekly PS2 sales in the USA and western Europe are less than 10k per week and running that through our normal extrapolation process obviously produces global data that is far too small since 90% of sales are in developing markets such as the Middle East, Latin America, India, China etc for PS2 - all of which we don't get any direct data for. For most other platforms, these markets only represent a few percent of sales so a simple extrapolation of data in known regions is good enough to get to the right ballpark.

Therefore, it is meaningless trying to produce weekly data for PS2 based just on what we collect for the USA / Europe / Japan which is why we stopped and all we can do now is periodically update the totals based on shipments and external reports from those developing regions, something I haven't done since last year. Typically year-end is when a lot of adjustments happen as most regions publish end of year data and we can compare our estimates and extrapolations and fix where we have under / over scaled so we will correct the PS2 figures early in Jan when this is done. Same with the Vita "issues" that seem to be of such unnecessarily high importance to some of the posters here.

Hope this makes sense, let me know if you have any more questions.

That helps.

In the meantime, why not extrapolate using known buying trends (shipped vs sold in the known regions) on the shipment figures we have? That would give a good interim ballpark estimate, updated quarterly and revised anually.