only 0.2 million wii are on shelves.... wii is the master!!

See that part I bolded?

Now you understand why I say 240,000,000 MINIMUM lifetime sales of Wii.

The sad fact of the matter is that doubling that record may be just the beginning. The worst case scenario is doubling but we could very well see a tripling, quadrupling, and maybe even a quintupling of PS2's lifetime sales.

Nice to see people realizing just how strong the Wii is.

And remember...Wii Fit hasn't launched in the rest of the world yet.

Watch the numbers jump then.

You ain't seen nothin' yet.

John Lucas 

Hahahahaha. Ok. My issue with this is you are assuming that high levels of wii sales (as we've seen for a little over a year) will continue for about 7-10 years, or about the ps2's entire lifespan. This is where your (and avanish's) arguments fall apart.

I'd like to think Wii could sell 240,000,000, but the main problem with that is I don't think Nintendo would ever be able to ship that many!

I do think Wii could easilly surpass PS2's numbers though.

Here is the problem that you and Avinash_Tyagi have.  Yes, it has outpaced the PS2, but your extremly lofty goal of 240 mil.  Minimum, is not going to happen, as it is still being outpaced by the DS (Lite) and the DS will not even get to that goal, at half of the price.  It may outsell the PS2, but your predictions have the Wii selling above and beyond all other systems, and it's still being outsold by the DS, so I don't know about that happening.  I think that the Wii will sell well, and as ameratsu said, your argument falls apart when you believe that it will sell at a rate of at least 40 mil/year for five or six years.  That will not happen.  It will sell at max, 150 million consoles. 

The sole reasonf or that is that in 3.5 years, we'll be playing the new XBOX, and a year or two after that, the new PlayStation, and as dated as the Wii looks now, it will look like a prehistoric fossil compared to the other systems, and I don't care what you say, people like buying the new thing, not old stuff that's been on the market for six years. 

So that brings me to the fact that in the next 3.5 years, the Wii would have to sell around 220 million consoles, or seventy three million consoles per year, which from last year, would be a five time increase in production.  But since the Wii would continue sellingn when the next generation of consoles come out, let's say that if it makes it to 200 million before the next XBOX comes out, it would continue to sell another forty million, reaching your lofty goal.  Sales would have to be around fifty million for the next three years, sustained, against the competition priced only fifty bucks ahead of it.  It is not going to happen, you're taking the first year of sales, and applying it for a lifetime. 

I think that when this year ends, it'll be safe to say that we can pick a winner, but your predictions make no sense.  You just happened to get lucky and predict that the Wii would sell extremly well, and your prediction for 2007 is still wrong, as it's just now hitting 20 mil, and your sig said at 11:59:59 PM on New years eve.  So forgive me if your predictions don't resonate well with me. 

Also, to underscore some of the other points, the Wii has sold faster than any other console ever. Given Nintendo's decreasing market share/sales rate, there is NO WAY they could anticipated that. And they have more than tripled production from original planned of 500K units per month -- which was doubled before production ever began -- to 1.8M units (1800K units) per month.

Mike from Morgantown

...the hell?

You are the Patcher of the Wii, there is no way in hell will the Wii reach 240M by the end of this cycle. Stop with this nonsense, believe what you want but 240 Wii's in homes by that time is crazy.

Nintendo would have already been releasing another console by this time and so would Microsoft. 

^ Exactly

... the hell

That explains Pachter, I mean JL's prediction.

Does anyone else think that JL is Pachter's account on VGC?

@Soriku

We will see....Only time and *coughs* Nintendo production of Wii's *coughs* will tell if it will surpass the PS2 or even sell 240 million units.

Yeah, I mean, I was gonna buy the Nintendo system first, no matter what it was. Always have, always will. However, I never expected I was buying the most popular console ever, and what turned out to be an on the spot purchase, is now one of my greatest buying decisions of all time. I'm digging the Wii.