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Forums - Sales Discussion - UK data for Week ending December 8th...

Yakuzaice 16 minutes ago
TheLastStarFighter said:

Yes. They would be lucky to produce 450k per week. If you take the 5.5mil number they are actually only making around 200k. I think with the ramp up production helping things out they will get over 400k per week shipped during the Christmas season. Japan will absolutely impact Europe supply as units allocated to one location will not come to another.

But my point is the same, when you look at the math of the whole situation, Europe will be lucky to get 100k per week. If they are selling 100k per week they are selling what they are getting, no matter how many times people say they saw a WiiU in the wild. The whole thing is silly, Nintendo will sell 5 million WiiU's easy. Then it will get interesting.

Large scale manufacturing isn't something left to luck (unless we are factoring in something like natural disasters). You can't just "ramp up production" at the drop of a hat, you have to set up new production lines. At this point unless they are shipping the consoles by air, every Wii U that will be on shelves in Europe by Christmas has already been manufactured. Any increase in manufacturing right now won't be felt in America or Europe. They could get them to Japan by the end of the year however.

These things don't change on the fly. Unit allocation was likely decided months ago, and any change wouldn't be felt for at least a month. It isn't like a Wii U rolls off the line in Yantai and then magically appears in Japan or Europe the next day. Plus they'd have to make small changes to the line that waste time. Does it make sense to change boxes/materials, power cables, region locks from week to week? Or does it make more sense that they've been dedicating ~30% (or whatever is appropriate) of their lines to Japanese production and stockpiling the units in anticipation for launch. Could you actually specify what this math is that arrives at Europe only getting 100k a week? That would only be about 500k by Christmas.

What exactly would it take to convince you that the Wii U is not completely sold out? It is available on Amazon UK/France/Germany as well as other online retailers. There are also plenty of reports that Wii U's are not hard to come by. Wii U's are selling for retail or less on ebay UK. So why do you think that they are selling 100% of the units that are available? Is there any evidence that demand is vastly more than supply?

Unrelated, but why do you always break the quote when you are quoting somebody.

Bristow9091 said:

I've heard the Wii U has opened worse than the Vita, is this true? I've not really looked into the sales of it here...

Yes. Wii U did 40k first tracking week, Vita did 61k. This is for the UK.

 

Sorry, my early statement wasn't clear. I wasn't saying they WILL ramp up production. I was referring to the "ramp up period", the time where they starting to manufacture the console to the point where they are good at it. Specifically the period between late summer and when it went on sale. I'm saying that extra inventory, combined with what they are making and then selling, the combined totals are giving them about 400k or so a week, and that Europe is going to get about 100k of that, if it's lucky. US and Japan are larger markets so they will get a larger share.

FYI, you don't need to try to explain the manufacturing or shipping process to me...I'm an industrial engineer. Manufacturing, supply chains, economics...it's what I do. And the only way you could convince me that WiiU is not selling through is to show me shipped numbers and sold numbers that show differently..which you can't because a)you don't have them and b) they don't exist. I am 100% certain in my opinion, it's fine if you don't agree with me, we can look back on it later.

Oh, and why my quoting sucks is because I get an error every time I quote or reply. It takes several tries before it goes through. Perhaps you know what's wrong?



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Bristow9091 said:
Yakuzaice said:
Bristow9091 said:

I've heard the Wii U has opened worse than the Vita, is this true? I've not really looked into the sales of it here...

Yes.  Wii U did 40k first tracking week, Vita did 61k.  This is for the UK.

Ouch... that's lower than I thought... I'm gonna' see if I can find the first week sales for the PS3, 360 and Wii in the UK and see how it compares...

First weeks in the UK

Wii U - 40k
Vita - 61k
360 - 70k
DS - 87k
Wii - 105k
3DS - 113k
PS3 - 165k
PSP - 185k





TheLastStarFighter said:

Sorry, my early statement wasn't clear. I wasn't saying they WILL ramp up production. I was referring to the "ramp up period", the time where they starting to manufacture the console to the point where they are good at it. Specifically the period between late summer and when it went on sale. I'm saying that extra inventory, combined with what they are making and then selling, the combined totals are giving them about 400k or so a week, and that Europe is going to get about 100k of that, if it's lucky. US and Japan are larger markets so they will get a larger share.

FYI, you don't need to try to explain the manufacturing or shipping process to me...I'm an industrial engineer. Manufacturing, supply chains, economics...it's what I do. And the only way you could convince me that WiiU is not selling through is to show me shipped numbers and sold numbers that show differently..which you can't because a)you don't have them and b) they don't exist. I am 100% certain in my opinion, it's fine if you don't agree with me, we can look back on it later.

Oh, and why my quoting sucks is because I get an error every time I quote or reply. It takes several tries before it goes through. Perhaps you know what's wrong?

So what data do you have to suggest Nintendo sees Europe/PAL as a significantly smaller market than Japan and NA?  This isn't the 90's and first half of 2000's where Nintendo was nearly irrelevant in Europe.  Both the Wii and DS did very well in the regions outside Japan and the Americas.  Europe/Others got the biggest shipment for the 3DS launch despite going on sale a month after it did in Japan.  The Wii's launch quarter shipment in Others was about 75% of the Japanese shipment despite being the last to launch with less than 2.5 weeks before Christmas.  The DS sold the most in Others and the Wii was triple what it did in Japan.  Others was second in 3DS shipments last quarter, above the Americas.  What has occured to make Nintendo suddenly think the region will experience dramatically lower sales than Japan and the Americas?  It just seems like a convenient excuse because sales have been lower than in Japan and the Americas.

So since apparently no evidence that is currently available can convince you the Wii U isn't a 100% sellout, what evidence have you seen to make you believe it is?  I ask again, break down the numbers.  How many are they manufacturing weekly?  When did manufacturing begin?  What will be the distribution between the three main regions?  So far your claims would put the European shipments at only about 5-600k till the end of the year.  Do you expect the Americas and Japan to both get 2-3x that figure?



Yakuzaice said:
Bristow9091 said:
Yakuzaice said:
Bristow9091 said:

I've heard the Wii U has opened worse than the Vita, is this true? I've not really looked into the sales of it here...

Yes.  Wii U did 40k first tracking week, Vita did 61k.  This is for the UK.

Ouch... that's lower than I thought... I'm gonna' see if I can find the first week sales for the PS3, 360 and Wii in the UK and see how it compares...

First weeks in the UK

Wii U - 40k
Vita - 61k
360 - 70k
DS - 87k
Wii - 105k
3DS - 113k
PS3 - 165k
PSP - 185k



Just more proof that launch sales don't matter.

UK launch of PS3 > Uk launch of 360

Guess which one sold more so far? Xbox 360



So will we be talking about WiiU from now on rather than the Vita?



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Well, this throws the low shipment argument out the window officially. Of course, this doesn't mean that Wii U will end up a flop. However, there's a very good chance it won't be the market leader for next gen.



Yakuzaice 1 hour ago
TheLastStarFighter said:

Sorry, my early statement wasn't clear. I wasn't saying they WILL ramp up production. I was referring to the "ramp up period", the time where they starting to manufacture the console to the point where they are good at it. Specifically the period between late summer and when it went on sale. I'm saying that extra inventory, combined with what they are making and then selling, the combined totals are giving them about 400k or so a week, and that Europe is going to get about 100k of that, if it's lucky. US and Japan are larger markets so they will get a larger share.

FYI, you don't need to try to explain the manufacturing or shipping process to me...I'm an industrial engineer. Manufacturing, supply chains, economics...it's what I do. And the only way you could convince me that WiiU is not selling through is to show me shipped numbers and sold numbers that show differently..which you can't because a)you don't have them and b) they don't exist. I am 100% certain in my opinion, it's fine if you don't agree with me, we can look back on it later.

Oh, and why my quoting sucks is because I get an error every time I quote or reply. It takes several tries before it goes through. Perhaps you know what's wrong?

So what data do you have to suggest Nintendo sees Europe/PAL as a significantly smaller market than Japan and NA? This isn't the 90's and first half of 2000's where Nintendo was nearly irrelevant in Europe. Both the Wii and DS did very well in the regions outside Japan and the Americas. Europe/Others got the biggest shipment for the 3DS launch despite going on sale a month after it did in Japan. The Wii's launch quarter shipment in Others was about 75% of the Japanese shipment despite being the last to launch with less than 2.5 weeks before Christmas. The DS sold the most in Others and the Wii was triple what it did in Japan. Others was second in 3DS shipments last quarter, above the Americas. What has occured to make Nintendo suddenly think the region will experience dramatically lower sales than Japan and the Americas? It just seems like a convenient excuse because sales have been lower than in Japan and the Americas.

So since apparently no evidence that is currently available can convince you the Wii U isn't a 100% sellout, what evidence have you seen to make you believe it is? I ask again, break down the numbers. How many are they manufacturing weekly? When did manufacturing begin? What will be the distribution between the three main regions? So far your claims would put the European shipments at only about 5-600k till the end of the year. Do you expect the Americas and Japan to both get 2-3x that figure?

 

Wii Launch through Dec:

NA - 1.075 million

Europe - .697 million

Japan - .958 million

I would expect Nintendo to follow the same shipping pattern as the wii launch, so yes, about 5-600k sound right for Europe. I expect NA and Japan to get a similar proportion. My reasoning for saying that there is near 100% sell through is that I can say with certainty that there are enough nintendo/video game fanatics who will buy a system at launch that Nintnedo would sell a very very minimum 500k WiiU's at launch in America. We know how many Wii U's they sold. It is safe to say they sold every one shipped. Everything else follows what we know of Nintendo's shipping patters at launch. And again, I'm not really trying to convince you. I'm just stating my opinion, and it will show to be true in time. Until then there is nothing to prove anyone is right or wrong about how the WiiU is doing. I think it's selling great, and consistent with Wii patterns, just with a smaller initial batch.

 

 

 



thismeintiel said:
Well, this throws the low shipment argument out the window officially. Of course, this doesn't mean that Wii U will end up a flop. However, there's a very good chance it won't be the market leader for next gen.

Its too early to tell, but yeah right now it LOOKS like it won't lead the UK or any other country in Europe.



Phones are probably the cheapest things in Uk, you can find really amazing deals compare to the rest of Europe.



Switch!!!

VGKing said:
Yakuzaice said:
Bristow9091 said:
Yakuzaice said:
Bristow9091 said:

I've heard the Wii U has opened worse than the Vita, is this true? I've not really looked into the sales of it here...

Yes.  Wii U did 40k first tracking week, Vita did 61k.  This is for the UK.

Ouch... that's lower than I thought... I'm gonna' see if I can find the first week sales for the PS3, 360 and Wii in the UK and see how it compares...

First weeks in the UK

Wii U - 40k
Vita - 61k
360 - 70k
DS - 87k
Wii - 105k
3DS - 113k
PS3 - 165k
PSP - 185k



Just more proof that launch sales don't matter.

UK launch of PS3 > Uk launch of 360

Guess which one sold more so far? Xbox 360



THIS THANK YOU!



Switch!!!