| TheLastStarFighter said: Sorry, my early statement wasn't clear. I wasn't saying they WILL ramp up production. I was referring to the "ramp up period", the time where they starting to manufacture the console to the point where they are good at it. Specifically the period between late summer and when it went on sale. I'm saying that extra inventory, combined with what they are making and then selling, the combined totals are giving them about 400k or so a week, and that Europe is going to get about 100k of that, if it's lucky. US and Japan are larger markets so they will get a larger share. FYI, you don't need to try to explain the manufacturing or shipping process to me...I'm an industrial engineer. Manufacturing, supply chains, economics...it's what I do. And the only way you could convince me that WiiU is not selling through is to show me shipped numbers and sold numbers that show differently..which you can't because a)you don't have them and b) they don't exist. I am 100% certain in my opinion, it's fine if you don't agree with me, we can look back on it later. Oh, and why my quoting sucks is because I get an error every time I quote or reply. It takes several tries before it goes through. Perhaps you know what's wrong? |
So what data do you have to suggest Nintendo sees Europe/PAL as a significantly smaller market than Japan and NA? This isn't the 90's and first half of 2000's where Nintendo was nearly irrelevant in Europe. Both the Wii and DS did very well in the regions outside Japan and the Americas. Europe/Others got the biggest shipment for the 3DS launch despite going on sale a month after it did in Japan. The Wii's launch quarter shipment in Others was about 75% of the Japanese shipment despite being the last to launch with less than 2.5 weeks before Christmas. The DS sold the most in Others and the Wii was triple what it did in Japan. Others was second in 3DS shipments last quarter, above the Americas. What has occured to make Nintendo suddenly think the region will experience dramatically lower sales than Japan and the Americas? It just seems like a convenient excuse because sales have been lower than in Japan and the Americas.
So since apparently no evidence that is currently available can convince you the Wii U isn't a 100% sellout, what evidence have you seen to make you believe it is? I ask again, break down the numbers. How many are they manufacturing weekly? When did manufacturing begin? What will be the distribution between the three main regions? So far your claims would put the European shipments at only about 5-600k till the end of the year. Do you expect the Americas and Japan to both get 2-3x that figure?
Wii Launch through Dec:
NA - 1.075 million
Europe - .697 million
Japan - .958 million
I would expect Nintendo to follow the same shipping pattern as the wii launch, so yes, about 5-600k sound right for Europe. I expect NA and Japan to get a similar proportion. My reasoning for saying that there is near 100% sell through is that I can say with certainty that there are enough nintendo/video game fanatics who will buy a system at launch that Nintnedo would sell a very very minimum 500k WiiU's at launch in America. We know how many Wii U's they sold. It is safe to say they sold every one shipped. Everything else follows what we know of Nintendo's shipping patters at launch. And again, I'm not really trying to convince you. I'm just stating my opinion, and it will show to be true in time. Until then there is nothing to prove anyone is right or wrong about how the WiiU is doing. I think it's selling great, and consistent with Wii patterns, just with a smaller initial batch.
