Why do people get worked up over this guys predictions, Pachters a nutcase Id rather believe man-bear-pigs crazy predictions ahead of this guys lol

Stuff like OoT or Mario 64?

I mean, fuck, even Wii Sports.

A solid game that's meant to demonstrate the capabilities of the system.

What game is out there that REALLY shows what the WiiU is really capable of?

Ok, you mean high-production games.

But Wii Sports has its equivalent, it's Nintendoland. Same if not higher production value.

Barring Wii Sports (since it doesn't really fit in with OoT and Mario 64), Nintendo should have had one for launch, but lukily Pikmin 3 will be ready for launch window, which is better than nothing.

Ultimately, in year 1, you'll have a 3D Mario, that's the timing since Galaxy was released in 2007, and the 2nd one wasn't the same budget since the engine and almost everything in the game was already there.

Add the studio behind Kingdom of Amalur to the list. Nintendo could just buy that franchise. Though I would prefer to get it on my Vita... That would be so sweet!

I wouldn't say attracting Microsoft and Sony fans are necessary for winning the generation. They certainly were not last generation where 250 million Nintendo hardware units (Wii and DS), and nearly 1.6 billion software units sold on the hardware. Most videogamers prefer the exclusive franchises offered by Nintendo than those offered by Sony or Microsoft, and this is proven by the fact of the results of the last generation.

So far, with two handhelds already established in the next generation race - you're seeing that this is even more true than it was last generation. Nintendo exclusive franchises on 3DS are dominating Sony's exclusive franchises on Vita to a far greater degree.

Pachter's analysis is simply refuted by facts combined with common sense.

You are not using common sense, you're bending the rules of reason.

The success of the Wii U in the sphere of the home console sphere is the topic at hand (like the title and OP state), so injecting notions and sales numbers of handhelds is not contributing to a sound argument. Otherwise, the N64 was a success in the Playstation era. We know that, relatively to its competition, that was not the case for Nintendo, as its brand image was greatly damaged in the home console space during that generation and the one after it.

Great, now that I've cleared that out, let's actually get to the heart of the topic.

The Wii was a runaway success by catering to a market that was mostly age and taste agnostic. That lead to wins on the casual and non-gamer front, but led to losses on the traditional gamer front, to which Sony and MS were both catering much more instensively as manufacturers (3rd and 1st party offerings).

As such, comparing the Wii to its competition, it lost an opportunity in customers that resulted in 140m HW sold units for the competition (PS360) which Nintendo did not participate in to any considerable degree (as shown by sales of top blockbusting multiplats - COD, EA Sports, etc.).

So no, his analysis is not refuted at all, and there is a lot of truth to what he is saying, it's just that his solution stinks.

Here is an edited list of exclusive top 10 franchises on wii.

Wii Sports/Play/Fit  - a shitload of sales

Mario whatnot - a lot of sales

Zelda - 15.4m sales

Since we are talking about home consoles, there is little point to list handheld franchise numbers. 

yes mr. patcher... Nintendo know what they need to do and they already did ... JC why this guy always made my days?! Lol

Did they? What makes you think so? What exactly have they already done? As for now the only thing they did was release a console a tad stronger than PS360 and get Bayo2. Nothing that allows us to say that Nintendo will get the core gamers back. Yes, they will get their exclusives. Yes, they will be very good and will sell. But will gamers care about any other games on the Wii U? Or will that remain in the Sony/MS sphere? We still have to wait at least 2 years to see if the Wii U manages to become anything more than Gamecube 2.

I know, right?! :D