Going with the PSP analogy, PSP had a real cut of the Japanese developers due to Monster Hunter creating a strong base in Japan, this kept gamers like me interested in PSP cause we love Monster Hunter and PSP got a few Japanese games DS didn't because of the drastic difference in hardware power.  That's what kept that system selling... that and free games and being the best emulator machine in the market lol Vita lacks that appeal.

Wii U and 3DS are poised however to take Japan flat out, which is a shame for competition but like I brought up there are those Japanese game fans in the west that might be forced into getting a Wii U as a result instead of going PS3/Wii like this gen.  But what I mean by possibly no need for a second console, cause if it's traditional controls you want, Wii U offers that, if it's motion controls, Wii U offers that, if you want to use your old controllers on Wii U? They got you covered, just like Black Ops 2 plays on Wii U with all the set ups so could PS4 multiplats that are traditional, thus it makes the need for a PS4 go down.  Which is the point of my thread, if this console holds the traditional and the casual gamers, why go for one that only offers traditional?  If they go for both markets too what sets the PS4 apart from the Wii U? 

When you're not taking the piss you provide some good insights into possible futures.

Me personally I think PS3 is possibly the low-tide mark for the Playstation home console. Meaning the all things being equal sales potential for PS4 is also 60M. That's Playstation's base. Does Has Xbox grabbed a 60M base too? I don't know, it's hard to gauge Xbox's base with only 2 entries in the console race and vastly different results. I suspect Xbox does have a 60M base too. So I reckon the first 180 million consoles are already pretty much sold, it's just a matter of when. It's who gets to claim the lion's share of the other 70-100 million potential sales that will determine the dominant player this gen.

It's simply not tennable that Wii U will dominate like PS2. There's no one who will grab >50% market share because all the brands are strong. At least not unless one of the them shoots themselves in the foot. Basically, it's everyone's generation to lose. Each comany's performance will be significantly determined by the mistakes they make. Is Sony and MS's first and most significant mistake giving Ninendo a year head start? We'll see I guess.

I think people really underestimate how much of Wii's near 100mils are actually "casual" gamers who bought it, played it for a while and never looked back at gaming again or moved to another casual platform. So, IMO, though Wii did expand console market, lot of that expansion is pretty much unstable, so what could really happen in next gen is that we actually see smaller install base than in this one, with some significant loyalty shifts in user bases.

@binary_solo: I don't think the PS base is anywhere near 60m, nor is Xbox's. They both had one very good selling point this gen: HD graphics. That and they had great 3rd party support. That's what sold the system to close to 70m gamers. If Nintendo only has a 20m base, do you really think PS360 has 60m each? No. =)

OP: I agree that if Nintendo plays this gen right, and the other two mess up Nintendo will win. If all consoles will have the same 3rd party support (which I think they'll have - see my sig for further info) I think there's a big chance of WiiU winning this gen.

Hm, not absolutely certain for Xbox, but I'd say PS3 user base is potentially quite over 60mils - PS2 sale figures have shown how long tail Sony's console can have, and I don't see it being any different with PS3. And since both consoles are more or less equally powerful they got mostly the same 3rd party support, unlike Wii. That said, while Wii U is without a doubt more powerful than PS360, if those new engines demos are glimpse into what X720/PS4 are striving to achieve I don't see many major developers giving Wii U much support down the line. Unity 4 is nice move from Nintendo though, they will probably get much love from indie/small developers...

Well, it's no secret that PS1's success was closely tied to them getting superior 3rd party support - and the same goes for PS2. It's all 3rd party support. If it actually were the PS brand and it's 1sr party games people wanted, wouldn't it reflect onthe amount of sold 1st party games? And it does. Very few buys PS for the 1st party support - they bought this brand because of the 3rd party support. And what happens when a second console gets the same amount of 3rd party support? Well, you knw what happens. Could PS survive only on it's 1st party line up? Probably not.

The main issue for the next generation is the fact that you'll have 3 distinct consoles with not enough unique content for most people to justify owning more than one which aren't interoperateable in terms of networks or games. It would be different if you bought say Call of Duty and you played against anyone with a console, however if your friends are on a different console you can't play with them. I suspect that various markets are going to drift towards the majority one console due to online multiplayer and playing with friends. The console market in my opinion is likely going to be dominated by one or two major console manufacturers, I suspect it'll be either Microsoft or Sony AND Nintendo given the fact that Nintendo is unique enough to survive on their own devices.

I don't think Wii U will have exclusive control over JRPG's. What if MS buys out exclusives like they did for 360? What if a big publisher wants Platnium Games to make an exclusive not on the Wii. I just don't it happening.

Also PSP started off super poorly, not unlike the PSV. PSV sales will rise, a lot of gamers (especially Japanese gamers who primarly play handheld games) want HD quality experiences on the go. I have a feeling PSV will get exclusives similar to Valkyria Chronicles and Demon Souls.

Also, for PS4, if developers (specifically western) don't make their multiplatform games playable on the Wii U, then Wii U, like the Wii, GCN and N64 before it, might not get all the third party support it needs to succeed. I garentee you most GTA or CoD fans have no plans to switch loyalties to Nintendo, and Nintendo might block out a few bloodier games like FallOut. I'm very surprised to see Ninja Gaiden 3 on the Wii U.

Maxwell? Squilliam? What year is it?

Well if you look at my maths, and you see me saying that I reckon you can count 180 million consoles as having been sold already, then you see I think PS3 has a 60M base and 360 has something similar then that leaves 60M of my pre-sold consoles unsold. Clearly that's got to be Wii U. So I donb;t know where you get 20M for Wii U from.