binary solo said:
Squilliam said:
Nintendo could on the other hand be blindsided by a mixture of their own strategy, circumstances outside of the console industry and competing consoles. The Wii U may share most of the same name as the Wii, however the circumstances around the launch are completely different. With the Wii you could easily pay $299-$349 and leave the store with a game system which was both immediately accessible and fully tricked out with 2-3 games and a couple of controllers. It was the perfect mixture of cheap, fun and accessibility whilst also having the advantage of being significantly cheaper out the door and completely different to its' competitors.
The Wii U will have name recognition and 3rd party support with the first mover advantage, however it probably won't share any other advantages the Wii got when it was released. Out the door the Wii U feels about $100more expensive than the Wii was at launch given the fact that there is no Wii Sports with the basic pack and Nintendo land is no Wii Sports replacement. The Wii U probably won't be this Christmas' hottest gift and the people lining up for launch won't be converts, they'll be the converted.
Nintendo has significantly more competition this time around and the features/trade-offs don't really make nearly as much sense. So you can sit down with the Wii U tablet and browse the net? Yep but you can do that with a smart-phone or tablet and these are also compatible with the Xbox 360's Smart-Glass. You also pay a significant cost in terms of price for something which is much heavier than a normal controller and has much less battery life which duplicates technology you likely already own, especially if you're the kind of person who is an early adopter.
Nintendo has a great lineup of first party talent, however pleasing people after their having spent 10-15 years without a Nintendo home console with old familiar favourites and magical new I.P. is easier when that old I.P. feels fresh and the new I.P. isn't moving into sequel territory. Getting back to the fresh innovative feeling gets more difficult because innovation becomes harder to achieve every time you go through another release cycle. All the first party talent in the world doesis partially nullified by the huge lock-in with both the Xbox 360 and PS3's online ecosystems when Nintendo is effectively starting from 0. When your friends are staying with a competing console you can't play with them if you're on the Wii U.
I'm not all doom and gloom (lol). The Nintendo Wii U is certainly in a strong position because of who they are and where they've been with the Wii. They have a strong sales potential just as the PS3 entered into this generation with fantastic potential as well. I expect 20M people will buy the Wii U because they expect some of their favourite titles to be on that system, the same as the PS3 effect this generation. I expect the Wii U is a 60M selling system at heart which will go up depending on their actions as well as competitors and likewise can go downwards for similar reasons.
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When you're not taking the piss you provide some good insights into possible futures.
Me personally I think PS3 is possibly the low-tide mark for the Playstation home console. Meaning the all things being equal sales potential for PS4 is also 60M. That's Playstation's base. Does Has Xbox grabbed a 60M base too? I don't know, it's hard to gauge Xbox's base with only 2 entries in the console race and vastly different results. I suspect Xbox does have a 60M base too. So I reckon the first 180 million consoles are already pretty much sold, it's just a matter of when. It's who gets to claim the lion's share of the other 70-100 million potential sales that will determine the dominant player this gen.
It's simply not tennable that Wii U will dominate like PS2. There's no one who will grab >50% market share because all the brands are strong. At least not unless one of the them shoots themselves in the foot. Basically, it's everyone's generation to lose. Each comany's performance will be significantly determined by the mistakes they make. Is Sony and MS's first and most significant mistake giving Ninendo a year head start? We'll see I guess.
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The main issue for the next generation is the fact that you'll have 3 distinct consoles with not enough unique content for most people to justify owning more than one which aren't interoperateable in terms of networks or games. It would be different if you bought say Call of Duty and you played against anyone with a console, however if your friends are on a different console you can't play with them. I suspect that various markets are going to drift towards the majority one console due to online multiplayer and playing with friends. The console market in my opinion is likely going to be dominated by one or two major console manufacturers, I suspect it'll be either Microsoft or Sony AND Nintendo given the fact that Nintendo is unique enough to survive on their own devices.
