So I've been discussing this with many of my VGC buddies for the past few days and I wanted to share my thoughts and analysis of the Nintendo/Wii U/software strategy.

First off, Nintendo has always stated that their idea is to get a new demographic into gaming and then get them to become more core, this strategy isn't anything new actually, starts with saving the game industry with the NES, a system that stayed the same without all the 2600, 5200, tags and making things complicated for the main demographic of the time, kids and parents.  Eventually these kids grew up, started falling out of the hobby as well as their parents, so Sony came in with the PS1 and bringing in a new demographic that thought gaming was "lame" and made a huge group of brand loyalists, then Wii comes along and goes for the Apple idea and make gaming as open as possible for everyone, but for various reasons it still left out that PS1/PS2 demographic, that needs a really good sell to jump brands, Microsoft has obviously started to do it, now with the Wii U Nintendo wants to while keeping up with what they started on the Wii.

This leads me into the software they want to do this with, Nintendo Land, I'm not 100% on it catching on like Wii Sports, but if it does it'll be because of a familiar style of packaging, the bundle with the Deluxe to get the game into peoples hands (which is obviously happening with the sell outs), and because of the open to everyone feel to the games.  Which leads me to why I think this software will be awesome for the idea of bringing in the previous casual crowd closer to the core gamer crowd thus possibly getting more people into and spending money on the hobby.  Nintendo Land is a very casual friendly game with basic ideas and gameplay of the series it represents, this gets the casual crowd familiar with said series and how they essentially play, while also drawing in some core crowd that like the idea, both can play together (AKA mom and son) and the son can show mom a thing or two or talk about said series while playing.  I think this is the grand strategy of this specific software and if it sparks a fire it could work well to their strategy of conversion.

My second thought on the matter came up a while back and it involves the power of the hardware.  Developers have said if there was a giant leap in power causing development costs to rise 4 to 6 times like it did going from PS2/GC/Xbox to PS3/360 they simply could not operate making games that max out said hardware, so they would effectively still be developing around current gen technology levels, which means Wii U will be fine for these developers till technology and development costs come drastically down, which might be a good minute with how many artists it takes to make games today.  Basically this means even if PS4 and the next Xbox are huge leaps, the games will stay effectively within range of each other for porting, these developers want their games on as many systems as they can get and it showed with this past generation and the lack of exclusives.

What does this mean for the console owners?  Well it means they will have to fight the battle with innovation and first parties alone, this puts really puts Sony and Microsoft into Nintendos home turf, a company that lived off its first party during the GC days to keep its head above water for software releases.  Sony has good devs, but not the IPs to take off that would draw in the crowd on their own outside of GT, combined with the R&D in fighting, I feel they will drop move next gen for another idea to take hold, to differentiate themselves this time, but if this idea takes off all depends on Sony and if they develop a product with the average consumer in mind rather than top of the line technology that doesn't fit the populace like in the past with their 3D technology, they can play ball but it's really up to them.  Microsoft on the other hand has a number of rumors and patents floating around which would assume a major upgrade to the Kinect for next gen, while it obviously did better than Move and was supported more of the HD motion controls, I think tactile feedback is still needed in gaming and has been a major problem in Kinect development, doing it more accurately only opens up a few doors instead of a making it be a game changer like I feel it would need to be.  

So in a perfect storm for Nintendo, they continue to be open to the casual gamer and don't forget it ALA comic book crash of the 90s, but with games to now take the demographic it won over last gen and make them really get into gaming full swing, while having the power to keep the third parties and multiplats coming.  When Sony and Microsoft release their consoles if they release them with much stronger hardware, it likely won't keep the multiplats off Wii U, so by doing so they're raising technology costs and hurting themselves on entry price, if they don't go with much higher spec hardware, they're effectively doing the same just hopefully at a consumer friendly price, this is before any controller technology they will possibly want to include with every system to differentiate themselves from the competition, that might take a 300 dollar system to 400 dollars or beyond.  Not being out first might be an issue there as well, when better technology might not justify the higher price tag for the same games.  So with that if Nintendo can hold onto both demographics while essentially forcing Micosoft and Sony into innovation and first party making the difference, they could possibly capture a lot of the base they really want while keeping the one they have and undercutting Microsoft and Sony before they get the chance.  If all the cards fall right this could be a brilliant strategy.

so how many of these threads are we going to have...

WTF man we had a deal, what do you think you are doing posting threads again?

The last time Nintendo released a home console with strong third party support, it leaded in sales (NES/SNES). If the Wii U manages to get 3rd party developers to make PS360 games for the Wii U, and maybe even use the Wii U as a base platform for the next gen (similar to how developers used PS2 as a base platform last gen), then not only will Wii U be the cheapest system, which gets all the third party support, but it will also be the first on the market.

If Nintendo plays their cards right, they will have a huge lead this gen. However I've read that the PS4 and NextBox might not be that much of a graphical jumo next gen, and it's likely that the NextBox will get strong sales in the USA being an American brand, and PS4 will likely hold a lot of loyal customers.

So I'm only counting on the Wii U to dominate in Japan. I'm hoping this gets a good majority of JRPG's on the Wii U and we get to live in another SNES era of RPG bliss. We already have Dragon Quest X and Mass Effect 3 coming to the Wii U, and there are rumors that FFXIII Versus has become FFXV, which is now a PS3/Wii U title. It would be nice to see another core Final Fantasy on a Nintendo console.

LOL, because just keeping it between us and the other old VGC crew was too narrow, I wanted to discuss this with a bigger crowd! (also I'm not 200 posts in GAF)

Great response and yes I feel the same way on all accounts.  Nintendo is already dominating Japan, which makes Wii U a good base for Japanese home console games.  Those have huge followings even in the west, so even if a base stays loyal to Sony or Microsoft, that brings up the point of Japanese developer fans who might get a Wii U just for those games.  And no I don't think that Sony and Microsoft will die off, they have their gamer public image going strong, on that note Nintendo has to do the winning over and not those guys, it's true they have a lot of barriers to overcome, but if they can surmount it they could get higher console numbers this gen and only marginally impact Sony and MS console sales next gen (10m - 20m off what the PS3 and 360 got this gen is what I'd say, much like SNES to N64 and then N64 to GC, a 30m and 10m drop respectfully cause Sony and then Microsoft successfully pulled off this strategy)

I don't know if PS4 sales and NExtBox sales will be smaller then PS3 and 360 sales respectively. The gaming industry is growing. If you combine Wii/PS3/360 sales this gen you're going to be looking at over 250 million consoles sold. Last gen it was under 200 million, and the gen before that was about 150 million. However if PS4/NextBox sales don't grow over PS360 sales, and Wii U sales grow (stronger software support means prolonged hardware sales, just like the PS2) then Nintendo will have a larger share and do better.

Also how many Japanese developer fans are there outside of Japan? Japanese console games never sell well, Lost Odyssey and XenoBlade didn't even break 1 million despite being two of the best RPG's this gen, but games like Mass Effect, FallOut and Elder Scrolls sell in excess of 3 million on the 360 alone. Also games like Vanquish, Bayonetta, and Catherine just don't do that well either.

However if Wii U can get a good 3rd party support backing, and somehow convince CoD fans to switch over...then this could steal the non loyal fans of MS and Sony, just like PS1 did to SNES.

Well I have a theory behind that growth, part of it is the mainsteam demographic, the other part is a combination of owners who own multiple consoles because of various reasons, failures being a big issue, other being people who own PS3/Wii or 360/Wii cause it rounds out the game library, if the Wii U fulfills the needs of both demographics it cuts out the need for a second console for example, so we might see console sales go down, but it's not actually reflecting the number of gamers out there.

On the other hand bringing more mainstream casual gamers into the core fold means they could invest in other consoles because they want to get more into the hobby.  So I see the industry maybe even growing but I don't see console hardware going up per se, though I respect the view that it really could.

Nintendo could on the other hand be blindsided by a mixture of their own strategy, circumstances outside of the console industry and competing consoles. The Wii U may share most of the same name as the Wii, however the circumstances around the launch are completely different. With the Wii you could easily pay $299-$349 and leave the store with a game system which was both immediately accessible and fully tricked out with 2-3 games and a couple of controllers. It was the perfect mixture of cheap, fun and accessibility whilst also having the advantage of being significantly cheaper out the door and completely different to its' competitors.

The Wii U will have name recognition and 3rd party support with the first mover advantage, however it probably won't share any other advantages the Wii got when it was released. Out the door the Wii U feels about $100more expensive than the Wii was at launch given the fact that there is no Wii Sports with the basic pack and Nintendo land is no Wii Sports replacement. The Wii U probably won't be this Christmas' hottest gift and the people lining up for launch won't be converts, they'll be the converted.

Nintendo has significantly more competition this time around and the features/trade-offs don't really make nearly as much sense. So you can sit down with the Wii U tablet and browse the net? Yep but you can do that with a smart-phone or tablet and these are also compatible with the Xbox 360's Smart-Glass. You also pay a significant cost in terms of price for something which is much heavier than a normal controller and has much less battery life which duplicates technology you likely already own, especially if you're the kind of person who is an early adopter.

Nintendo has a great lineup of first party talent, however pleasing people after their having spent 10-15 years without a Nintendo home console with old familiar favourites and magical new I.P. is easier when that old I.P. feels fresh and the new I.P. isn't moving into sequel territory. Getting back to the fresh innovative feeling gets more difficult because innovation becomes harder to achieve every time you go through another release cycle. All the first party talent in the world doesis partially nullified by the huge lock-in with both the Xbox 360 and PS3's online ecosystems when Nintendo is effectively starting from 0. When your friends are staying with a competing console you can't play with them if you're on the Wii U.

I'm not all doom and gloom (lol). The Nintendo Wii U is certainly in a strong position because of who they are and where they've been with the Wii. They have a strong sales potential just as the PS3 entered into this generation with fantastic potential as well. I expect 20M people will buy the Wii U because they expect some of their favourite titles to be on that system, the same as the PS3 effect this generation. I expect the Wii U is a 60M selling system at heart which will go up depending on their actions as well as competitors and likewise can go downwards for similar reasons.

Maybe, but if that's true, then next gen even more people will own multiple consoles. After all if PS3/Wii or 360/Wii rounds the library better then PS2/GCN or PS2/XB, then..... However PS1/N64 had a pretty complete library, no one cared for Sega.

I Don't think Wii U will eliminate the need for a second console because just like the Wii - PS360 and the GCN/XB - PS2 and the PS1 - N64 before it, the Wii U is looking to be a lot different then the PS4 (which looks to be more traditional) and the NextBox. Not everyone is going to want two screens, I mean look at DS vs. PSP, PSP still sold decently well and has its own unique share of games.