Nintendo could on the other hand be blindsided by a mixture of their own strategy, circumstances outside of the console industry and competing consoles. The Wii U may share most of the same name as the Wii, however the circumstances around the launch are completely different. With the Wii you could easily pay $299-$349 and leave the store with a game system which was both immediately accessible and fully tricked out with 2-3 games and a couple of controllers. It was the perfect mixture of cheap, fun and accessibility whilst also having the advantage of being significantly cheaper out the door and completely different to its' competitors.
The Wii U will have name recognition and 3rd party support with the first mover advantage, however it probably won't share any other advantages the Wii got when it was released. Out the door the Wii U feels about $100more expensive than the Wii was at launch given the fact that there is no Wii Sports with the basic pack and Nintendo land is no Wii Sports replacement. The Wii U probably won't be this Christmas' hottest gift and the people lining up for launch won't be converts, they'll be the converted.
Nintendo has significantly more competition this time around and the features/trade-offs don't really make nearly as much sense. So you can sit down with the Wii U tablet and browse the net? Yep but you can do that with a smart-phone or tablet and these are also compatible with the Xbox 360's Smart-Glass. You also pay a significant cost in terms of price for something which is much heavier than a normal controller and has much less battery life which duplicates technology you likely already own, especially if you're the kind of person who is an early adopter.
Nintendo has a great lineup of first party talent, however pleasing people after their having spent 10-15 years without a Nintendo home console with old familiar favourites and magical new I.P. is easier when that old I.P. feels fresh and the new I.P. isn't moving into sequel territory. Getting back to the fresh innovative feeling gets more difficult because innovation becomes harder to achieve every time you go through another release cycle. All the first party talent in the world doesis partially nullified by the huge lock-in with both the Xbox 360 and PS3's online ecosystems when Nintendo is effectively starting from 0. When your friends are staying with a competing console you can't play with them if you're on the Wii U.
I'm not all doom and gloom (lol). The Nintendo Wii U is certainly in a strong position because of who they are and where they've been with the Wii. They have a strong sales potential just as the PS3 entered into this generation with fantastic potential as well. I expect 20M people will buy the Wii U because they expect some of their favourite titles to be on that system, the same as the PS3 effect this generation. I expect the Wii U is a 60M selling system at heart which will go up depending on their actions as well as competitors and likewise can go downwards for similar reasons.
Tease.
