By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why PS4 won't be cutting edge, and neither will Xbox3 - or Why Nintendo might win next gen

 

Is my reasoning sound?

Hellz yeah! Spot on 265 33.42%
 
I never thought of it like that.... 69 8.70%
 
So it's the mental institution next for you? 101 12.74%
 
So very, very wrong 266 33.54%
 
I'm a pussy with no opinion 88 11.10%
 
Total:789
HappySqurriel on 27 November 2012
KeptoKnight said:
HappySqurriel said:
KeptoKnight said:

Yeah I can see that $400 would be the eye candy for both.  In terms of GPU power, do you see both consoles having 3x-4x the power of the Wii-U?

How much will the games cost? Still $59.99?

3 to 4 times the processing power is likely, and I think that most games will probably stay at $59.99 ...

I do think that it is possible that some companies may start launching games at $69.99 to see if the market will support the price. If I were to bet on the companies that would do this it would be publishers like EA and Activision, and they would mostly put this premium price on a big budget blockbuster (Call of Duty for example) that pushed the limits of what next generation consoles can do; and they would justify the price by pointing out that development costs were 2 to 4 times as large as previous generation titles to produce games with that level of detail.

i agree. Last question, but kind of vague. Just for the sake of keeping it simple.

The leap in power from Wii to PS3 & Xbox 360 would be what? 5x,6x, or 7x?

Difficut to say ...

In terms of polygons per frame, I think the PS3 and XBox 360 were (probably) only producing 3 or 4 times as many polygons per frame as the Wii; but in terms of shader effects, the PS3 and XBox 360 were (probably) close to 4 to 8 times the processing power per pixel while rendering 2.5 times as many pixels (for 10 to 20 times the performance).

On the CPU side of things, the XBox 360 CPU probably had close to 16 times the theoritical processing power but in real world performance probably saw about 8 times the performance of the Wii.

All of these are rough guestimates ...



Around the Network
S.T.A.G.E. on 27 November 2012
z101 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Nintendo wont have the casuals with the Wii U. Its not as simple a process as the Wii was for them and will segment the audience greatly. The PS4 and the 720 will have stable sales and pass the Wii U December of the second year.

The Wii U seems to have great sales at the moment.

And the hardcore crowd already has choosen the lower price tech in the PS2-Generation over the graphically improved Gamecube and Xbox.

The only reason the Wii has failed on the "hardcore" (shooter, racer) crowd was the fact that it only had SD resolution, a clearly visible drawback to PS3/Xbox360. But these gamers are don't interested in the marginally improved graphics that XBox3/PS4 perhaps offer.


I've said it once and ill say it again, the Nintendo faithful are the ones who sold out the console. Any Nintendo console would sell out before it launches. After it goes ovee 2-3 million thats when the hardcore numbers will slow down. All the other consoles will have a shit ton of core games coming to them and Nintendo is going to just have to watch until more ports and exclusives come to them in 2013.



HoloDust on 27 November 2012
HappySqurriel said:
KeptoKnight said:

i agree. Last question, but kind of vague. Just for the sake of keeping it simple.

The leap in power from Wii to PS3 & Xbox 360 would be what? 5x,6x, or 7x?

Difficut to say ...

In terms of polygons per frame, I think the PS3 and XBox 360 were (probably) only producing 3 or 4 times as many polygons per frame as the Wii; but in terms of shader effects, the PS3 and XBox 360 were (probably) close to 4 to 8 times the processing power per pixel while rendering 2.5 times as many pixels (for 10 to 20 times the performance).

On the CPU side of things, the XBox 360 CPU probably had close to 16 times the theoritical processing power but in real world performance probably saw about 8 times the performance of the Wii.

All of these are rough guestimates ...


MPolygons/s - 360: 500   Wii: 30+

MPixel/s - 360: 4000  Wii: 972

MTexels/s - 360: 8000 Wii: 972

GFLOPS - 360: 240 Wii: 12



HappySqurriel on 27 November 2012
HoloDust said:
HappySqurriel said:
KeptoKnight said:

i agree. Last question, but kind of vague. Just for the sake of keeping it simple.

The leap in power from Wii to PS3 & Xbox 360 would be what? 5x,6x, or 7x?

Difficut to say ...

In terms of polygons per frame, I think the PS3 and XBox 360 were (probably) only producing 3 or 4 times as many polygons per frame as the Wii; but in terms of shader effects, the PS3 and XBox 360 were (probably) close to 4 to 8 times the processing power per pixel while rendering 2.5 times as many pixels (for 10 to 20 times the performance).

On the CPU side of things, the XBox 360 CPU probably had close to 16 times the theoritical processing power but in real world performance probably saw about 8 times the performance of the Wii.

All of these are rough guestimates ...


MPolygons/s - 360: 500   Wii: 30+

MPixel/s - 360: 4000  Wii: 972

MTexels/s - 360: 8000 Wii: 972

GFLOPS - 360: 240 Wii: 12

You're looking at apples and oranges ...

Taking theoritical performance from the XBox 360 and comparing it against real world performance of the Wii; if the XBox 360 could produce 500 Million polygons per second it would be averaging around 20 million polygons per frame, which is (in reality) about 20 times what we will see from the XBox 360. Most XBox 360 and PS3 games average about 1 to 2 million polygons per frame while the Wii averaged between 250,000 and 500,000 per frame.



VGKing on 27 November 2012

It's impossible for a next-gen console to be both cutting-edge, and affordable. Sony proved that with the PS3.
So PS4 will be high-end. That's it. They won't be introducing a new disc format or some alien processor. It will use custom off-the-shelf parts.

I skimmed through your post but I think I get what you're trying to say...and I really think you're wrong.
Multiplats won't be equal between PS4/720 and Wii U. I think you're severely underestimating Sony and Microsoft here.

If you think the Wii U is even a little bit more powerful....keep in mind that Nintendo made it as cheap as possible. They aren't even trying to compete with the upcoming consoles. Now imagine how powerful PS4/720 will be when MS/Sony DO try and really push console tech forward, they won't be limited by small console form factors and Sony/MS aren't afraid to make a console that's a little loud.

I think you're also missing a major factor with PS4. It's not being made in Japan......so I don't think the whole Yen thing will be much of a problem.(Can some smarty pants confirm this?)



Around the Network
VGKing on 27 November 2012
HappySqurriel said:
KeptoKnight said:

so if Sony or MS releases a console with that kind of GPU with regular controller how much you think would be the prices of the consoles?

Isn't Microsoft planning to bundle Kinect along with it as well?


Microsoft could probably hit $400 while taking a moderate loss ...

I'm honestly not sure about Sony. I could be wrong but I suspect that Sony continues to sell the PS3 at $300 because they can not afford to reduce its price even though they could (potentially) break even or turn a profit at $200; and (on top of that) they haven't dropped the PS-Vita's price to below $200 even with its abysmal sales. Sony needs every dollar of profit at the moment and I think it is more likely that they will manufacture a $300 console and sell it for $400 than make a $500 console and sell it for $400.

/FACEPALM

If Sony could meet their performance targets, then sure that would be a great idea. But there's no way a PS4 will cost only $300 to manufacture and meet the 1080p, 60FPS 3D that was mentioned in the latest leak....

I don't think the $500 manuf, and $400 sell thing will happen either.

Since Sony will continue to support PS3 even after PS4 launch, I think they can get away with a high price tag. $450 would probably be acceptable to the core gamer. 



HappySqurriel on 27 November 2012
VGKing said:
HappySqurriel said:
KeptoKnight said:

so if Sony or MS releases a console with that kind of GPU with regular controller how much you think would be the prices of the consoles?

Isn't Microsoft planning to bundle Kinect along with it as well?


Microsoft could probably hit $400 while taking a moderate loss ...

I'm honestly not sure about Sony. I could be wrong but I suspect that Sony continues to sell the PS3 at $300 because they can not afford to reduce its price even though they could (potentially) break even or turn a profit at $200; and (on top of that) they haven't dropped the PS-Vita's price to below $200 even with its abysmal sales. Sony needs every dollar of profit at the moment and I think it is more likely that they will manufacture a $300 console and sell it for $400 than make a $500 console and sell it for $400.

/FACEPALM

If Sony could meet their performance targets, then sure that would be a great idea. But there's no way a PS4 will cost only $300 to manufacture and meet the 1080p, 60FPS 3D that was mentioned in the latest leak....

I don't think the $500 manuf, and $400 sell thing will happen either.

Since Sony will continue to support PS3 even after PS4 launch, I think they can get away with a high price tag. $450 would probably be acceptable to the core gamer. 

Honestly, I haven't got a clue what Sony will do; I was just suggesting that they probably can't afford to take the loss up front that people have become used to



DanneSandin on 28 November 2012
VGKing said:
It's impossible for a next-gen console to be both cutting-edge, and affordable. Sony proved that with the PS3.
So PS4 will be high-end. That's it. They won't be introducing a new disc format or some alien processor. It will use custom off-the-shelf parts.

I skimmed through your post but I think I get what you're trying to say...and I really think you're wrong.
Multiplats won't be equal between PS4/720 and Wii U. I think you're severely underestimating Sony and Microsoft here.

If you think the Wii U is even a little bit more powerful....keep in mind that Nintendo made it as cheap as possible. They aren't even trying to compete with the upcoming consoles. Now imagine how powerful PS4/720 will be when MS/Sony DO try and really push console tech forward, they won't be limited by small console form factors and Sony/MS aren't afraid to make a console that's a little loud.

I think you're also missing a major factor with PS4. It's not being made in Japan......so I don't think the whole Yen thing will be much of a problem.(Can some smarty pants confirm this?)

It feels like we've been over this once before..?

Considering Sony's dire financial situation (it's set to junk status, meaning they have no credentials more or less - hope I use that word right) and the high costs of making games THIS gen, I can't imagine next gen  being a similar jump in tech as PS360 were, and the poor economics over all prevents people from buying expansive electronics (except for Apple products that is).

It all boils down to money, in one way or another. So even if PS4 isn't made in Japan, and thus avoiding the yen problem, Sony need money, so they're probably not gonna bleed all over PS4 like they did on PS3, developers can't afford making AAA-games and taking full advantage of the console.

And if I'm underestimating Sony and MS, I think you're OVERestimating them, so they'll probably end up somewhere in between, so to speak.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 28 November 2012
PX54 said:
Half of the reason behind the price of the PS3 at launch was the Blu-Ray player. The console was cheaper than most stand-alone Blu-Ray players at the time, now you can get a player for about half the price of the super slim PS3 model. This will help bring the price down. Not to mention Sony went with an independant hardware system whereas from what i've heard they're heading the the direction of a more mainstream system this time around. Surely these will help keep the price down.

The WiiU isn't really that much of a leap over the PS3 and 360 as it is (some people may say, it's the console Nintendo should have released all those years ago). Some developers have said it's not powerful enough even to last a usual life-span (4-6 years). Also with no official news still from either Microsoft or Sony on when the next consoles are coming but stating the current gen has life in it yet, it could be another 2-3 years before the next generation are even heard from let alone seen or available. At that rate the WiiU will be nearly into its 4th year before its 'next-gen' competators are even out the door.
If Sony and Microsoft were concerned with Nintendo's competition in the next-gen we'd have heard much more about their next consoles than we have. I believe they both see the WiiU as a current-gen modification.

Well, developers are contradicting themselves really. They say that Wii U isn't powerful enough, and at the same time many studios have closed this gen due to high costs developing a game. If PS720 is a major leap tech wise, developing costs will double. Now, how will that effect developing games? That's another reason why next gen won't be a similar leap as PS3 from PS2 was.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Squilliam on 28 November 2012
HappySqurriel said:
Squilliam said:

A chip which is a little slower than the HD 7850 would deliver around 8* the GPU shader performance of the Xbox 360 and on a mature 28nm process that is pretty plausible. They can easily devote a large proportion of the power budget to the GPU because the CPU in the Xbox 360 was a dog in comparison to current designs in performance/W such as the jaguar cores from AMD which only use a few watts per core and deliver better performance. The rumoured inclusion of low power/high performance CPU cores and memory architectures (DDR4) means that they can devote more energy towards putting prettier pictures on the screen.

I doubt that one single 250-300mm^2 die in would break the bank in comparison to the dual similar sized dice the current generation consoles launched with and the use of generic technologies like DDR4 and Blu Ray ought to control costs further.


The Xenos is reported to have 240 GFLOPS of processing power, the Radeon HD 7850 is reported to have 1761.28 GFLOPS of processing power (7.388 times the Xenos) and consumes 130 Watts of electricity under load. To get the Radeon HD 7850 to a reasonable level of power consumption to release a 150 Watt console you would probably see its processing power reduced to 6 times that of the Xenos.

 

Having studied AMD's GPUs trying to predict the Wii U's chipset, the best options for a console at this point in time is their mobility line of GPUs (because their desktop GPUs run too hot). For Nintendo, the most likely similar GPUs are the Radeon 7950M, 7630M to 7690M, because they draw less than 25 Watts under load, have 480 stream processors, are manufactured using a 40nm process, and are designed using the Turks core; and these processors have between 450 GFLOPS and 700GFLOPS of processing power (two to three times the Xenos).

The top of the line GPU from AMD, with their best performance per watt, is the Radeon 7970M running at 75Watts and producing 2TFLOPS of processing power (roughly 8 times the Xenos and 3 to 4 times the likely Wii U GPU range). It is an expensive GPU but not (necessarily) too expensive for a console unless that system comes bundled with an expensive "controller" like the Wii U tablet or Kinect. Expecting much beyond that is not realistic because I doubt AMD can produce a more efficient GPU at this point in time, using (much) more electricity will result in a console which simply runs too hot, and the cost of the GPU would already be pushing the limits of what you could realistically expect Microsoft to spend.

A FLOP on one architecture Vec 4+1 (Xenos) is entirely different to another such as GCN. A new GPU architecture would likely also be significantly more efficient so if the new GPU has 8* the number of flops the realisable performance will be higher.

You can't just look at a laptop GPU which is configured differently and infer how a console's GPU would perform. A console GPU which is rumoured to use lower power memory and eSRAM will be different because a significant quantity of power consumption in modern chips is data moving out of the chip over data buses. Furthermore a console starting mass production in the middle of 2013 with a second generation 28nm GPU on a much more mature process ought to deliver 10-20% better performance per watt/area than current designs.

I don't think that the next generation systems will be bundled with expensive controllers, or at least they'll have cheap ones without them anyway. I believe that both Microsoft and Sony will give people 'options' of different ways to play games between standard controllers, Kinect/Move and tablets. $299/399 are both doable price points and this generation does show that fairly solid sales are achieveable between these two price points.



Tease.