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Forums - Nintendo - Pachter: Nintendo “just doesn’t get it” with the Wii U

MegaDrive08 on 01 September 2012

I think Satoru iwata should have patcher assassinated :)



 

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amp316 on 01 September 2012

I read this article on break at work in EGM. A couple of pages later was Seanbaby's article. I had trouble deciding which one was more serious.



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kljesta64 on 01 September 2012

hes pissed because nintendo dont take him seriously and he never talked to iwata or miyamoto hes like an abonded little child :*(

he said that he never talked to them adn he needs it so badly



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Keiner kann ihn bremsen, keiner macht ihm was vor. Immer der richtige Schuss, immer zur richtigen Zeit. Superfussball, Fairer Fussball. Er ist unser Torschützenkönig und Held.

badgenome on 01 September 2012
theprof00 said:

100 points to anyone who can tell me the actor, also from 1985, of whom pachter looks like in this photo.

Here's a hint: He was also full of himself.





Adinnieken on 01 September 2012
RolStoppable said:
HappySqurriel said:
Honestly, I'd be more worried if Pachter "got" the Wii U ...

That's true. In Pachter's recorded history, he was wrong seven out of seven times (DS, PSP, 360, PS3, Wii, 3DS, PSV).

I'm not sure exactly what he's been wrong about with the Xbox 360 or PS3.  The only, most consistant, thing he's been wrong about has been price cuts.  Otherwise, so far, he's been pretty reasonable.

Im personally not confident that the Wii U will do as well as the Nintendo patrons want to believe.  The problem isn't the initial sales, it's of what will Nintendo do in 3 years from now.  For the next year, most games will only offer a slight improvement over the Xbox 360 and the PS3, where as for the first year that both the PS4 and next Xbox are released the games will either be on par or slightly sub par.  After two years, what us Nintento's game plan?

They're going to have to have something ready that's compelling for gamers and non-gamers alike.  I don't think the controller is going to be good enough. 



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FrancisNobleman on 01 September 2012
Adinnieken said:

I'm not sure exactly what he's been wrong about with the Xbox 360 or PS3.  The only, most consistant, thing he's been wrong about has been price cuts.  Otherwise, so far, he's been pretty reasonable.

Im personally not confident that the Wii U will do as well as the Nintendo patrons want to believe.  The problem isn't the initial sales, it's of what will Nintendo do in 3 years from now.  For the next year, most games will only offer a slight improvement over the Xbox 360 and the PS3, where as for the first year that both the PS4 and next Xbox are released the games will either be on par or slightly sub par.  After two years, what us Nintento's game plan?

They're going to have to have something ready that's compelling for gamers and non-gamers alike.  I don't think the controller is going to be good enough. 

In 3 years from now, they will have the bigger install base out of all 3 companies.

Wii only owners are much more prone to adopt the Wii U quicker than 360 and PS3 owners are to upgrade to PS4 and 720 due to a much more smaller jump in tech and strong lasting support for the HD twins once the new gen starts.

And this time there is no big difference like Wii vs PS3. Neither in the graphics department, and neither in uniqueness, given the fact that Sony and Microsoft already are responding to the tablet-esque uniqueness Nintendo came up with.



DanneSandin on 01 September 2012
Soundwave said:

Wii U: 45-50 million (down from approx 100 million Wii)
3DS: 80 million (down from 150 million DS)

I'd say that WiiU will sell 40m minimum and 80-90m maximum.

The 3DS will sell 75m mimimum and 110m maximum.



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

DanneSandin on 01 September 2012
cusman said:

Wii U is the following

  • Wii HD still supporting your Wii Motion Plus + Nunchuk and other Wii Accessories like Wii Balance Board (you will be able to transfer all your Virtual Console stuff and Wii Ware stuff from your Wii to your Wii U as well)
  • X360 / PS3 like controller in the Pro Controller (without screen) to easily take all 3rd party ports make for the "core" market even if they choose not to do anything with the Wii U Gamepad
  • Asymetric gaming using Wii U Gamepad for 1-2 players and rest using Wii Motion Plus or Pro Controllers. This is an extension of the "connectivity" ideas Nintendo experimented with when they did Gamecube + GBA as the controller.
  • A social network for Games (MiiVerse) - Mark my words... this will be a hugely appealing feature of the console. Unlike the Playstation Home, it is an integral part of the console and not some separate application.
  • Tablet + Pro Controller Hybrid controller for wide range of new game ideas. Have you seen videos of ZombiU? Rayman Legends? etc?
  • Nintendo franshises finally in freaking HD
  • Best system launch window software support in the history of video game consoles. No console has ever launched with wide range of games in distinct key genre's like Assassin's Creed III and Rayman Legends and Mario and Batman and Mass Effect and Darksiders and Ninja Gaiden and Pikmin and ZombiU and Lego City Undercover, and... you get the idea... its a long list

In short... if you liked the Wii, you would be crazy to ignore the Wii U cause the Wii was a really shallow proposal with a really short shelf life and really poor game support.

Best. Post. Ever.

Regarding the WiiU



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

SaviorX on 01 September 2012
Soundwave said:
SaviorX said:
Soundwave said:

I wouldn't really be surprised if Nintendo's market shrinks to this during this gen:

Wii U: 45-50 million (down from approx 100 million Wii)
3DS: 80 million (down from 150 million DS)


I dont understand how you can say that about the 3DS... If it only sells 80m (worse than Gameboy Advance in ~4 years of life) that means 2011 was its peak year! It will nab 95m-100m at least...

Wii U? There is no way it will sell worse than the PS3 did this gen by more than 15m units like that. First off the market has expanded too far to contract like this. By the end of gen there will be around 250m consoles sold; if Nintendo loses 50m the other two manufacturers have to gain at least 75% of that.

Second, Wii's software will see sequels. That means Mario Kart and Smash will return, in addition to NSMBU and all the other games yet to be seen. The first 3 I mentioned have the potential for at least 40 million pieces of software already.


I think 3DS will have some tough years in 2014 and 2015 (Vita will be wiped out completely) because of cell phones and tablets. I think the handheld market as a whole is shrinking, 3DS does strong numbers for Nov/Dec (holidays) but really shrinks for the rest of the year, DS would sell big for all 12 months (you have to sell 120+ million units of hardware). 

The Wii has been on a downward spiral as a brand since 2009 ended really. I don't think the casual market is going to come back in such strong numbers to be honest. 

I think it's sort of like an Atari 2600 situation brewing where people are going to realize a lot of these casual games are crap and not very high quality and simply bail out. You can get that type of experience on from a $1-$2 app these days. 

Without that, Nintendo is going to have to aim at the hardcore market more, and I just don't think they're prepared to really fight that fight. Mario/Zelda these are almost 25, almost 30 year old franchises now. They don't have a new flagship character that appeals to older players (James Bond was about the closest and they only had him for a short period). Mario can only do so much, Zelda is on a bit of a decline, Metroid isn't a big seller, the rest of the "core" portfolio these days is lucky to crack 500k in any territory (F-Zero, Star Fox, Pikmin, etc.). Which is a shame because I like a lot of those IP as much as Mario. 

Nintendo/Mario fans will buy Wii U, but that only gets you so much. 45-50 would not be that bad though, that's about the same as the Super NES sold. 

The 3DS is trending upwards from last year, and unless its peak year is its second year, the odds are that 2013 will be even bigger than 2012. Even then, if it declines in 2014, by what kind of percentage can you expect it to drop worst case scenario year-over-year, 40%, 50%, 60%?

Then lets look at the numbers.

2011 = ~13.25

2012 is trending towards eh, ~16.25m

2013 Im assuming will be the peak year, so a modest increase to 18.5 million should be fair. By this point the total is (48m)

Now for 2014, once again assuming the well runs dry and 3DS immediately begins to deteriorate with an unprecedented 40% drop in sales, it would sell 11.1m. Unless Nintendo announced a 3DS successor I could not imagine how such a decline would happen even with their current level of software support, but I'll roll with it. Then we can also assume there is 40% drop year after year until sales become negligible. So...

13.25, 16.25, 18.5, 11.1, 6.6, 4m, ~3.25m until death. TOTAL: 73M FINAL.

I hope you realize this is the kinda of situation it will take in order for the 3DS to die like that.

As for Wii U, I can make a whole other thread on that but to start off I'll just go with Japan.

Wii sold around 12m over there with only a few really major 3rd party games...more of which I expect will come with Wii U. As a result I see Sony's marketshare dropping even further and Wii U managing 14m-15m in Japan lifetime.

There is no way on earth Americas will not exceed the Japanese total by 10 million (just unconscionable). With that in mind you have around 38m-40m sold already. Unless Europe is  struck by a nuclear warhead that turns gamers into fertilizer, I do not see Nintendo's marketshare dropping SEVENTY PERCENT over there to 10 million units.

I do not care how badly the decline was from PS2 to PS3 or if the Wii brand is tarnished; this simply is not possible. In America, they would have to drop 40%.... Europe 66% and remain stagnant in Japan.



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sethnintendo on 01 September 2012
amp316 said:
I read this article on break at work in EGM. A couple of pages later was Seanbaby's article. I had trouble deciding which one was more serious.


Used to love reading Seanbaby's articles.  That was the only thing I read when I had a free subscription to EGM.  Granted it was during the Wii time period so they pretty much ignored Nintendo.  Wrote EGM to cancel my free subscription and told them they better give Seanbaby a raise and that their magazine would go under in only a matter of time.