Pachter: Nintendo “just doesn’t get it” with the Wii U

[SaviorX]

Soundwave said:

SaviorX said:

Soundwave said:

I wouldn't really be surprised if Nintendo's market shrinks to this during this gen:

Wii U: 45-50 million (down from approx 100 million Wii)
3DS: 80 million (down from 150 million DS)

I dont understand how you can say that about the 3DS... If it only sells 80m (worse than Gameboy Advance in ~4 years of life) that means 2011 was its peak year! It will nab 95m-100m at least...

Wii U? There is no way it will sell worse than the PS3 did this gen by more than 15m units like that. First off the market has expanded too far to contract like this. By the end of gen there will be around 250m consoles sold; if Nintendo loses 50m the other two manufacturers have to gain at least 75% of that.

Second, Wii's software will see sequels. That means Mario Kart and Smash will return, in addition to NSMBU and all the other games yet to be seen. The first 3 I mentioned have the potential for at least 40 million pieces of software already.

I think 3DS will have some tough years in 2014 and 2015 (Vita will be wiped out completely) because of cell phones and tablets. I think the handheld market as a whole is shrinking, 3DS does strong numbers for Nov/Dec (holidays) but really shrinks for the rest of the year, DS would sell big for all 12 months (you have to sell 120+ million units of hardware). 

The Wii has been on a downward spiral as a brand since 2009 ended really. I don't think the casual market is going to come back in such strong numbers to be honest. 

I think it's sort of like an Atari 2600 situation brewing where people are going to realize a lot of these casual games are crap and not very high quality and simply bail out. You can get that type of experience on from a $1-$2 app these days. 

Without that, Nintendo is going to have to aim at the hardcore market more, and I just don't think they're prepared to really fight that fight. Mario/Zelda these are almost 25, almost 30 year old franchises now. They don't have a new flagship character that appeals to older players (James Bond was about the closest and they only had him for a short period). Mario can only do so much, Zelda is on a bit of a decline, Metroid isn't a big seller, the rest of the "core" portfolio these days is lucky to crack 500k in any territory (F-Zero, Star Fox, Pikmin, etc.). Which is a shame because I like a lot of those IP as much as Mario. 

Nintendo/Mario fans will buy Wii U, but that only gets you so much. 45-50 would not be that bad though, that's about the same as the Super NES sold. 

The 3DS is trending upwards from last year, and unless its peak year is its second year, the odds are that 2013 will be even bigger than 2012. Even then, if it declines in 2014, by what kind of percentage can you expect it to drop worst case scenario year-over-year, 40%, 50%, 60%?

Then lets look at the numbers.

2011 = ~13.25

2012 is trending towards eh, ~16.25m

2013 Im assuming will be the peak year, so a modest increase to 18.5 million should be fair. By this point the total is (48m)

Now for 2014, once again assuming the well runs dry and 3DS immediately begins to deteriorate with an unprecedented 40% drop in sales, it would sell 11.1m. Unless Nintendo announced a 3DS successor I could not imagine how such a decline would happen even with their current level of software support, but I'll roll with it. Then we can also assume there is 40% drop year after year until sales become negligible. So...

13.25, 16.25, 18.5, 11.1, 6.6, 4m, ~3.25m until death. TOTAL: 73M FINAL.

I hope you realize this is the kinda of situation it will take in order for the 3DS to die like that.

As for Wii U, I can make a whole other thread on that but to start off I'll just go with Japan.

Wii sold around 12m over there with only a few really major 3rd party games...more of which I expect will come with Wii U. As a result I see Sony's marketshare dropping even further and Wii U managing 14m-15m in Japan lifetime.

There is no way on earth Americas will not exceed the Japanese total by 10 million (just unconscionable). With that in mind you have around 38m-40m sold already. Unless Europe is  struck by a nuclear warhead that turns gamers into fertilizer, I do not see Nintendo's marketshare dropping SEVENTY PERCENT over there to 10 million units.

I do not care how badly the decline was from PS2 to PS3 or if the Wii brand is tarnished; this simply is not possible. In America, they would have to drop 40%.... Europe 66% and remain stagnant in Japan.