This is surely going to he an interesting holiday. I think the PS3 & 360 gap will decrease even more by the end of the year, but not by much.
The PS3's biggest thing going this year is of course the remodeling. If the Xbox 360's remodel and the PS3's previous remodel serve as good indicators of the future, then this new pS3 Slim should be extremely powerful. This remodel will be big for Sony regardless of if there is a price cut or not. I'm really not sure if Sony will decide to cut the price this year. The Slim alone will do wonders for Sony because of more hardware sold AND cheaper costs for each unit so Sony could decide not to cut the price and reap hefty profits for the next year or so. Or Sony may think its better to lower the price if they see the Wii U and potential Xbox cuts as threats to their own sales. They may decide its best to cut the price to stay competitive during the holiday.
- Also, is the Slim really a lot cheaper than the current model? I've been hearing a lot of people saying the Slim costs considerably less to manufacture, but I haven't seen any evidence. Can anyone clarify this? This will definitely be a factor in Sony decision on cutting the price or not.
I personally don't think Sony needs to price cut this year, and if I were in charge of deciding price cuts, I probably wouldn't. Like I mentioned before, consumers will buy remodels in large masses even without a price cut. Sony could use the money, and it could set the PS3 up for a much more dramatic cut in 2013. However, if Sony truly needs a price cut to stay competitive, then I think they should drop to $229 (probably allowing them to drop to $179 next year). Now, $229 is not that far from the current price, however I think even the smallest of a price cut coupled with the remodel will help instill the 'fresh' look this year. The PS3 will already appear fresh with the remodel and I think simply having the label 'price cut' attached to it will be a big marketing asset that Sony could take advantage of.
The X360 typically has better holiday sales than the PS3 during this time. And I think this will be the year when Microsoft finally decides to officially lower the Xbox 360 price and possibly Kinect's price too. The PS3 Slim and the Wii U will definitely have a fair amount of buzz, so Microsoft may decide it necessary to cut X360's price this year to stay competitive. But, its not like Microsoft will be hurt by this. I'm sure there's room for a considerable price cut that would still leave Microsoft with some hefty profit with every unit of hardware sold. If Microsoft does not drop the X360's price or Kinect's price, then I will definitely be surprised.
The X360 also will have Halo 4 and CoD bundles that typically move a lot of hardware. These will definitely be a factor by a few hundred thousand units so they are definitely worth mentioning. From what we've seen with past Halos and Cods, people like Special Edition consoles. The Special Edition consoles coupled with a price cut will definitely give the X360 a pretty good holiday, I think. A Kinect price cut will do wonders also.
I'm thinking that both the PS3 and the 360 have things going for it. The PS3 will have the remodel. The 360 will more than likely have a price cut. The 360 of course has a big advantage in the software department imo. (I don't think Battle Royale or LBP Karting will be big sellers. I hope I'm wrong though). Though, the PS3 could also have a price cut to counter whatever advantage the X360 appears to have. There's a lot of unknowns and a lot of factors difficult to gauge at this point. But if I had to make a prediction, I would say the PS3 will edge out the X360 small margin (~400k) due to the Slim and a potential price cut.
