Very true, it is optimistic. This is the success scenario, but since it's to me the most likely scenario, that's what I'd wager!

Mario Kart DD was a pack-in game; so its sales don't count.

But anyway, Xbox as a platform has limited appeal and it reached that limit this gen due to Sony screwing up; no one outside of the UK or US will want its successor console unless it is for some pricing screw up on the Sony side again. Although I think Wii U is going to trounce Sony and Microsoft more thoroughly next generation than it did this generation if only due to the head start release which they didn't have this generation.

My prediction? The Wii U is Nintendo's Gamecube all over again. The thing people forget about Nintendo is, they've really only ever had two commercially dominant systems, the NES and Wii. The SNES was beaten by Sega for most of it's life cycle and the N64 and Gamecube were both completely destroyed.

The only reason the Wii was such a commercial success is because it was the "it" thing to own for a few years. People who didn't know what a video game was bought it because it was "cool". Nintendo failed, somehow, to realize that trends like this implode in on themselves and made the error of going "all out" with casual gaming. They didn't think about the fact that by doing so, they were going to lose the core which are the ones who will ALWAYS be around. So basically, the casual left the party when the party wasn't "cool" anymore, and the core were offended and moved on to Sony and Microsoft. Now, who's left? Basically, just Nintendo die hard which were the ones buying and supporting the Gamecube and there aren't even close to enough of them to make a difference next gen. So I predict a gloomy, dead last for them.

what did people predict half an year before the wii was released as lifetime sales? i would say many thought it will flop badly. i never predict something but if i would predict something then not before i still not know what that wii u thing really is and before i have tested it by myself.

I was going to reply to the original post but you got in first, so I will answer both.

Agreed it had mroe power, put that means nothign unless developers try to use it. As oniyide pointed out, a lot of xbox games looked better.

The question with the WiiU will be, will developers see it as a 360 and jsut be complacent on that level of graphics instead of spending extra money to make the game look better. Not to mention they will be thinking Nintendo fans are just going into HD world so for them 360 gfx is a big steup already so why try to put more effort in.

The Wii was a SMASH at it's e3 before launch. People were going nuts for the thing and it was wowing everyone at the show.

What is this "Nintendo core" that you're talking about that has "gone over to Microsoft and Sony"? You need to explain that statement further, because it is a strange one to make. If anything, it is the opposite is true; the Wii is the first Nintendo home console since the SNES that mostly all Nintendo fans bought. I know I am getting a Wii U, and I would say there is no indication that most others won't either since it doesn't have the problems of the N64 or the GameCube; and the Wii and DS both proved extra horsepower is not that big of a sales factor anymore. Also, the biggest selling games in the industry are all Nintendo games except for Call of Duty - only Nintendo consoles get Nintendo games.

hmm i found this thread, it was one year earlier but still crazy if you look how all analysts thought wii will sell a lot less than ps3 and 360.

http://www.pvcmuseum.com/games/vs/market-analysts-console-sales-predictions.htm

I dont knwo what crazy land you live in, but even when I wen tto preorder my Wii a month beofre Launch the guys selling it in the shop where makign fun out of it saying it is udnerpowered and the name was tupid.

Both true facts, but I wanted it because of Zelda and Red Steel at the time.

15-18 Million sounds about right. We still need to see a price and how the Media will react.