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TWRoO said:

To a point yes, but the time constraint happydolphin has is probably going to be the same as the one the Wii had for Christmas 2007... which the Wii got to 18.8 million.

I would say expecting the WiiU to end 2013 above 15 million is optimistic even if it launches before November 2012 (ie gives it enough chance to ramp up Christmas 2012 sales)

Very true, it is optimistic. This is the success scenario, but since it's to me the most likely scenario, that's what I'd wager!