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Forums - Nintendo - It Continues... Take Two "skeptical" about Wii U

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Cobretti2 on 16 June 2012
the_dengle said:
Cobretti2 said:

Mind you this seems to happen to Nintendo only. Look at 3DS, 17million user base versus VITA 2million and yet VITA constantly gets 3rd party annoucements of well known franchises. YOu would think 3DS would get the same if not better treatment. Surely it has proven itself already?

Can't tell if sarcastic...

Seriously, 2 Monster Hunters, 2 Resident Evils, Kingdom Hearts, Tekken, Street Fighter, Professor Layton, Dragon Quest, Scribblenauts, LEGO, Rayman, Harvest Moon, and many others, including Game Gear VC support from SEGA. Vita has been getting mostly ports of console games, and the amount of effort that went into them has been reflected in their poor sales.

OT: Meanwhile in Japan, Nintendo is "skeptical" about Take Two. Really, if I had to guess, this is probably a regional issue. Take Two is a Western developer; GTA is primarily targeted toward Western audiences. Nintendo's consoles tend to sell better in Japan. Take Two is probably waiting to see how Ubisoft, EA, and Activision's games will sell on Wii U. If they sell decently, Take Two is gonna scramble to get a Wii U port of GTAV ready. Hopefully the quality doesn't suffer as a result of their cowardice.

I was to some degree but not fully. I want to see more western support. I need sports games, maybe a FPS or three.



 

 

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Mazty on 16 June 2012
happydolphin said:

@Mazty. Stop bashing DK about stocks. We have a thread about that so we don't need to talk about that here. Stocks are a very finnicky thing, so daily variations have little to do with e3 and much more to do with clearly more important factors such as financial reports, stock indexes (nasdaq, nikkei), and currency fluctuations.

As a challenge for you, before you go to those threads, try to see if Sony, with even its magical PS2, saw its stocks jump post e3 2000 (it was in May back then). Try the same with the Wii's announcement in May 2006. In none of these cases will you see a considerable jump, despite the promising nature of both platforms. Hell, even try it with the PS3, or any other gaming company for that matter, and I'd be hard pressed to find any conclusive results. A 2.5% jump in a day is nothing. A 6% rise continuously is another story. Make a thread about it and see you there.


I'm not bashing him; I'm correcting him. He said investors are interested in it and that Sony & MS stocks took a hit after E3. He was wrong with all those claims. 

Sure you could argue the strong Yen as part of the Nintendo stock drop, but that doesn't work due to Sony's stock increase. 

In short, and it was my simple point, the stock reaction to Nintendo at E3 suggests investors are not hopeful. A lot of gamers (watch Invisible Walls) also feel the WiiU is a giant dissapointment. 



thetonestarr on 16 June 2012
babuks said:
How much is it difficult to port those ps360 games to WiiU? If it sells 300-500K, will not they make profit out of it?


Easy ports need way less than that to turn a profit. 300-500k is usually enough for an HD game to turn a profit from the get-go. As an easy port, they can turn a profit with less than 100k.



 SW-5120-1900-6153

ReactiveActive on 16 June 2012

Well if GTA 5 doesn't come out for the Wii U, i will just wait for bargain bin version of the PC game like i did with GTA 4 episodes from Liberty City Complete Edition.

As for never putting the games out for Nintendo systems, the day will come when they need the sales from Nintendo systems and people will just pass on the games if they never been able to play the other so-called core games.



 

Deoz on 16 June 2012
milkyjoe said:

You can't really blame them when Wii owners didn't buy their core franchises. GTA/RDR/Max Payne/LA Noire/BioShock all failed to move a single unit on the Wii.

Justified decision.


HA.



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happydolphin on 16 June 2012

^That's my wish. To not port your games with an almost guaranteed ROI deserves severe consequences. I hope they get it back after all. But you know what will happen? Instead of saying people are not interested in their games because they didn't built the clientbase on the platform as they should, they will blame it on Nintendo again.

What fools.

@Mazty. I'll reply on your wall.



Lyrikalstylez on 16 June 2012

and it starts, Wii U will have the same problems the Wii had lol
too bad I wont be getting this system anytime soon



Conegamer on 16 June 2012
Mazty said:
Khuutra said:
Mazty said:

Hum, if we take inflation into account and the spread of wealth, I think I would be happy to say the WiiU will sell 25%+ slower then PS3, 360 & the Wii. I'd be reluctant to put any figures on it but I would say around the ~20 million unit mark (maybe ~30 if they have some surpises lined up) is where I expect the wiiu to begin to frazzle out. 

However, to boost sales what Nintendo may do is either discontinue the wii (unlikely) or bomb the WiiU price by so much the Wii becomes irrelevant, as they did with the DS by bombing the 3DS price (v. likey).  Still though, the Wii sales are so low nowadays would any sort of price drop be enough? I don't think it would, but it would help it hit maybe ~40 million units? And I'm being very charitable there. 

What are your predictions on sales?

Now you know that ain't cricket. You said it would make the Dreamcast look like a success, which means it would need to fizzle out at less than ~11 million units.

Now do you want to discard that as hyperbole, or do you want to make a bet based on those numbers?

Direct numbers, no, relative numbers, sure, why not. 

However I'm willing to admit that any guess, whether it's optimisitc or pessimistic, will be based a lot on luck as there are still a few unknowns. For example, if Nintendo slash it's price, would that help? Could they afford to do so? More so what happens (and I wouldn't be surprised at this) if MS or Sony announce their next console a few months before the WiiU? A few flashy next-gen graphics games would beat the crap out of the WiiU but are the competition at such a stage with their hardware?

I'd be more confident on numbers closer to the release date.

Still though I'm interested in hearing how you think it's sales life span will go.

Using one year as 12 months, and assuming 2 scenarios:

1. £220/$269 launch, bundled with NintendoLand, NSMBU out before Christmas

2. £300+ launch, not bundled, NSMBU out after Christmas:

Y1- 11mil/8mil

Y2- 15mil/11mil

Y3- 20mil/17mil

Y4- 18mil/14mil

Y5- 16mil/10mil

Y6- 13mil/8mil

After- 22mil/ 15mil

Total- 115mil/83mil

 

The first is the best-case scenario, the second is the worst-case scenario (IMO, though the first year or two may have a mil or less, made up for in later years). People are underselling it. Even the PS3, which launched 2 years late here and more than the price of the Wii and the 360 put together, has sold 65mil, and with no real competition in its first year, I imagine it'll cement itself in Japan like the 3DS, and have a good foothold in America also. 

No way will it fall below the Dreamcast. A little stock fluctuation means nothing; the same thing happened with the 3DS, but it shot up post-launch.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Mazty on 16 June 2012
Conegamer said:
Mazty said:
Khuutra said:
Mazty said:

Hum, if we take inflation into account and the spread of wealth, I think I would be happy to say the WiiU will sell 25%+ slower then PS3, 360 & the Wii. I'd be reluctant to put any figures on it but I would say around the ~20 million unit mark (maybe ~30 if they have some surpises lined up) is where I expect the wiiu to begin to frazzle out. 

However, to boost sales what Nintendo may do is either discontinue the wii (unlikely) or bomb the WiiU price by so much the Wii becomes irrelevant, as they did with the DS by bombing the 3DS price (v. likey).  Still though, the Wii sales are so low nowadays would any sort of price drop be enough? I don't think it would, but it would help it hit maybe ~40 million units? And I'm being very charitable there. 

What are your predictions on sales?

Now you know that ain't cricket. You said it would make the Dreamcast look like a success, which means it would need to fizzle out at less than ~11 million units.

Now do you want to discard that as hyperbole, or do you want to make a bet based on those numbers?

Direct numbers, no, relative numbers, sure, why not. 

However I'm willing to admit that any guess, whether it's optimisitc or pessimistic, will be based a lot on luck as there are still a few unknowns. For example, if Nintendo slash it's price, would that help? Could they afford to do so? More so what happens (and I wouldn't be surprised at this) if MS or Sony announce their next console a few months before the WiiU? A few flashy next-gen graphics games would beat the crap out of the WiiU but are the competition at such a stage with their hardware?

I'd be more confident on numbers closer to the release date.

Still though I'm interested in hearing how you think it's sales life span will go.

Using one year as 12 months, and assuming 2 scenarios:

1. £220/$269 launch, bundled with NintendoLand, NSMBU out before Christmas

2. £300+ launch, not bundled, NSMBU out after Christmas:

Y1- 11mil/8mil

Y2- 15mil/11mil

Y3- 20mil/17mil

Y4- 18mil/14mil

Y5- 16mil/10mil

Y6- 13mil/8mil

After- 22mil/ 15mil

Total- 115mil/83mil

 

The first is the best-case scenario, the second is the worst-case scenario (IMO, though the first year or two may have a mil or less, made up for in later years). People are underselling it. Even the PS3, which launched 2 years late here and more than the price of the Wii and the 360 put together, has sold 65mil, and with no real competition in its first year, I imagine it'll cement itself in Japan like the 3DS, and have a good foothold in America also. 

No way will it fall below the Dreamcast. A little stock fluctuation means nothing; the same thing happened with the 3DS, but it shot up post-launch.

The thing is you have to consider two major factors:

1) The wii market has dried up. It is selling few units now, and on top of that a lot of wii owners that I know (anecdotal I know but a shared view) are not core gamers and now are on their ipod/phone/pad gaming. These people move to the next big thing and the wii is the past; apple & android are the future. 
2)Core gamers are unimpressed due to the line up consisting of a lot of games that are already out on existing consoles, or will be multiplatform. Why spend £200-£300 + £40 when you can just spend £40 and play it on your console online with your pre-existing friend network?

I can't see the WiiU ever hitting 80 million. 60 million tops and I'm being incredibly optimistic there. 



Conegamer on 16 June 2012
Mazty said:
Conegamer said:
Mazty said:
Khuutra said:
Mazty said:

Hum, if we take inflation into account and the spread of wealth, I think I would be happy to say the WiiU will sell 25%+ slower then PS3, 360 & the Wii. I'd be reluctant to put any figures on it but I would say around the ~20 million unit mark (maybe ~30 if they have some surpises lined up) is where I expect the wiiu to begin to frazzle out. 

However, to boost sales what Nintendo may do is either discontinue the wii (unlikely) or bomb the WiiU price by so much the Wii becomes irrelevant, as they did with the DS by bombing the 3DS price (v. likey).  Still though, the Wii sales are so low nowadays would any sort of price drop be enough? I don't think it would, but it would help it hit maybe ~40 million units? And I'm being very charitable there. 

What are your predictions on sales?

Now you know that ain't cricket. You said it would make the Dreamcast look like a success, which means it would need to fizzle out at less than ~11 million units.

Now do you want to discard that as hyperbole, or do you want to make a bet based on those numbers?

Direct numbers, no, relative numbers, sure, why not. 

However I'm willing to admit that any guess, whether it's optimisitc or pessimistic, will be based a lot on luck as there are still a few unknowns. For example, if Nintendo slash it's price, would that help? Could they afford to do so? More so what happens (and I wouldn't be surprised at this) if MS or Sony announce their next console a few months before the WiiU? A few flashy next-gen graphics games would beat the crap out of the WiiU but are the competition at such a stage with their hardware?

I'd be more confident on numbers closer to the release date.

Still though I'm interested in hearing how you think it's sales life span will go.

Using one year as 12 months, and assuming 2 scenarios:

1. £220/$269 launch, bundled with NintendoLand, NSMBU out before Christmas

2. £300+ launch, not bundled, NSMBU out after Christmas:

Y1- 11mil/8mil

Y2- 15mil/11mil

Y3- 20mil/17mil

Y4- 18mil/14mil

Y5- 16mil/10mil

Y6- 13mil/8mil

After- 22mil/ 15mil

Total- 115mil/83mil

 

The first is the best-case scenario, the second is the worst-case scenario (IMO, though the first year or two may have a mil or less, made up for in later years). People are underselling it. Even the PS3, which launched 2 years late here and more than the price of the Wii and the 360 put together, has sold 65mil, and with no real competition in its first year, I imagine it'll cement itself in Japan like the 3DS, and have a good foothold in America also. 

No way will it fall below the Dreamcast. A little stock fluctuation means nothing; the same thing happened with the 3DS, but it shot up post-launch.

The thing is you have to consider two major factors:

1) The wii market has dried up. It is selling few units now, and on top of that a lot of wii owners that I know (anecdotal I know but a shared view) are not core gamers and now are on their ipod/phone/pad gaming. These people move to the next big thing and the wii is the past; apple & android are the future. 
2)Core gamers are unimpressed due to the line up consisting of a lot of games that are already out on existing consoles, or will be multiplatform. Why spend £200-£300 + £40 when you can just spend £40 and play it on your console online with your pre-existing friend network?

I can't see the WiiU ever hitting 80 million. 60 million tops and I'm being incredibly optimistic there. 

1. The Wii market has dried up because 100,000,000 Wiis (nearly) have been sold. And the 3DS shows that there's a market for dedicated handhelds, so there's more than a market for a home console.

2. Who are 'Core gamers' anyway? The same people who doubted the success of the Wii? The analysts who said the Wii would sell less than the GC and that the PS3 would sell 200,000,000 units before either were launched? People like to buy the new things, and Nintendo games, obviously. And if it is more powerful, they'll be some great exclusives on the system, and devs will push for a new generation soon. The online market is a very small one, what you want is something that stands out to the average consumer, and the tablet controller does that.

The one thing you should not do is doubt Nintendo.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.