Make the Dreamcast look like a success, eh

Would you like to...

Make a bet?

The drop was bigger with sony and ms.. thats a fact.. and yes nintendo dropped like 2 % the day after.. but they are still up.. and as i said sony had dropped more,, why the ps3 i selling way better than wii... becurse the investers believe in it.. very simple.

And remeber..the people talking in forums, about the wii u hardware.. (and dosent know anything real yet) are only a very litle part of consols gamers.. The only thing thats counts are sales.. and i bet wii u wii deliver just that.. and break the wii record.. but let's not discuss it here.. just let's wait and see.. happy gaming

What the hell are you on about?

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-06-06-nintendo-shares-fall-following-e3-press-conference

MS and Sony shares went up after E3...
So you think you know better then investors and publishers? Okay sure you do bud. 

Hum, if we take inflation into account and the spread of wealth, I think I would be happy to say the WiiU will sell 25%+ slower then PS3, 360 & the Wii. I'd be reluctant to put any figures on it but I would say around the ~20 million unit mark (maybe ~30 if they have some surpises lined up) is where I expect the wiiu to begin to frazzle out. 

However, to boost sales what Nintendo may do is either discontinue the wii (unlikely) or bomb the WiiU price by so much the Wii becomes irrelevant, as they did with the DS by bombing the 3DS price (v. likey).  Still though, the Wii sales are so low nowadays would any sort of price drop be enough? I don't think it would, but it would help it hit maybe ~40 million units? And I'm being very charitable there. 

What are your predictions on sales?

Now you know that ain't cricket. You said it would make the Dreamcast look like a success, which means it would need to fizzle out at less than ~11 million units.

Now do you want to discard that as hyperbole, or do you want to make a bet based on those numbers?

In other words, Take Two is skeptical of GTAV...

How sad, when a company says that it doesn't believe its game will make a profit on a system that will clearly outsell the first xbox at least. As nightdragon says, it all seems too fishy.

To me, it's an excuse. 1) To not help Nintendo in its core strategy, and 2) To negotiate moneyhatting.

Savior's stance on the matter is also possible. What could Nintendo be doing behind closed doors that we aren't seeing?

Also, as one of us has said, Nintendo should start being very aggressive with devs that behave like this. A blockbuster cannot fail to make profit on any platform, unless it has desperately low userbase. This clearly won't be the case for WiiU.

I also agree with Astrid and Stefan.de.machtige that Nintendo needs to up the ante in core franchises and be a leader in the market. It's possible to expect 3rd parties to at least out ports, and it's happening, but as we can see, in other cases it isn't. Both Nintendo and Take Two are to blame in the matter, but imho Nintendo is much more. However, to refuse to launch a simple port of your top game goes beyond risk. I think it's a question of not wanting their franchise to suffer from 1) Possibly much inferior sales on the WiiU platform, while still bonus sales they would be low for WiiU, and 2) How the release of the game on WiiU could negatively impact the franchise in terms of prestige and in a battle with families that are prone to have their children game on Nintendo consoles. They may be worried about customer backlash. With Playstation, it was adults first, families second, with Nintendo it's the other way around.

Who knows

Direct numbers, no, relative numbers, sure, why not. 

However I'm willing to admit that any guess, whether it's optimisitc or pessimistic, will be based a lot on luck as there are still a few unknowns. For example, if Nintendo slash it's price, would that help? Could they afford to do so? More so what happens (and I wouldn't be surprised at this) if MS or Sony announce their next console a few months before the WiiU? A few flashy next-gen graphics games would beat the crap out of the WiiU but are the competition at such a stage with their hardware?

I'd be more confident on numbers closer to the release date.

Still though I'm interested in hearing how you think it's sales life span will go.

@Mazty. Stop bashing DK about stocks. We have a thread about that so we don't need to talk about that here. Stocks are a very finnicky thing, so daily variations have little to do with e3 and much more to do with clearly more important factors such as financial reports, stock indexes (nasdaq, nikkei), and currency fluctuations.

As a challenge for you, before you go to those threads, try to see if Sony, with even its magical PS2, saw its stocks jump post e3 2000 (it was in May back then). Try the same with the Wii's announcement in May 2006. In none of these cases will you see a considerable jump, despite the promising nature of both platforms. Hell, even try it with the PS3, or any other gaming company for that matter, and I'd be hard pressed to find any conclusive results. A 2.5% jump in a day is nothing. A 6% rise continuously is another story. Make a thread about it and see you there.

You can't really blame them when Wii owners didn't buy their core franchises. GTA/RDR/Max Payne/LA Noire/BioShock all failed to move a single unit on the Wii.

Justified decision.

I think that graphics will have little to do with it; I can't guess at numbers for now, since we don't know enough about its software lineup outside of 2D Mario to hazard a decent guess.

So we'll look at your more concrete prediction, which was that the Wii U would lag behind the PS3/360/Wii by at least 25% in terms of speed of sales.

The slowest of those consoles, the 360, sold ~6 million consoles in its first 52 weeks. Easy to figure out.

Based on your prediction I would be willing to bet that the Wii U will sell over 4.5 million in its first 52 weeks, without aligning the launches.