It Continues... Take Two "skeptical" about Wii U

[Mazty]

Khuutra said:

Mazty said:

Hum, if we take inflation into account and the spread of wealth, I think I would be happy to say the WiiU will sell 25%+ slower then PS3, 360 & the Wii. I'd be reluctant to put any figures on it but I would say around the ~20 million unit mark (maybe ~30 if they have some surpises lined up) is where I expect the wiiu to begin to frazzle out. 

However, to boost sales what Nintendo may do is either discontinue the wii (unlikely) or bomb the WiiU price by so much the Wii becomes irrelevant, as they did with the DS by bombing the 3DS price (v. likey).  Still though, the Wii sales are so low nowadays would any sort of price drop be enough? I don't think it would, but it would help it hit maybe ~40 million units? And I'm being very charitable there. 

What are your predictions on sales?

Now you know that ain't cricket. You said it would make the Dreamcast look like a success, which means it would need to fizzle out at less than ~11 million units.

Now do you want to discard that as hyperbole, or do you want to make a bet based on those numbers?

Direct numbers, no, relative numbers, sure, why not. 

However I'm willing to admit that any guess, whether it's optimisitc or pessimistic, will be based a lot on luck as there are still a few unknowns. For example, if Nintendo slash it's price, would that help? Could they afford to do so? More so what happens (and I wouldn't be surprised at this) if MS or Sony announce their next console a few months before the WiiU? A few flashy next-gen graphics games would beat the crap out of the WiiU but are the competition at such a stage with their hardware?

I'd be more confident on numbers closer to the release date.

Still though I'm interested in hearing how you think it's sales life span will go.