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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - It Continues... Take Two "skeptical" about Wii U

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Mazty on 16 June 2012
the_dengle said:
Mazty said:

It could outsell the dreamcast, then again it may not; it's too early to call it. I'd like to think it won't outsell the Dreamcast, but people are willing to spend more on tech now then ever before so it is somewhat relative.

Why would you want Wii U to bomb? That would be terrible for the industry. Even as primarily a Nintendo fan, I still want Sony and Microsoft's consoles to do well, even the Vita. Especially the Vita. The death of Sega in the hardware market was bad enough; the death of Nintendo would be catastrophic. That whole "casual" market that bought into Wii -- if they don't buy into Wii U, they're definitely not going to buy into PS4 or 720. If Wii U only sells 10 mil, Sony and Microsoft's consoles would have to sell a combined ~220 mil to have growth in the industry. Each of them would have to outsell the PS1 or the Wii! It's not happening. The market would decline, investors would pull their funds, Sony and Microsoft's gaming divisions would be in serious trouble, even if they both managed 80 mil or so hardware sales.

Thankfully, Nintendo is going to sell way more than 10 million Wii Us. Just think of it this way: every Wii U they sell takes a bit of the pressure off the PS4 and the 720 to prove that game consoles are still viable products. If the Wii U sells 40 mil, they only have to average 95 mil. If the Wii U sells 60 mil, they only have to average 85 mil between them. And so on. Much more manageable than 110 mil apiece!

It's everything that is wrong with gaming. It's gimmick gaming gone wild. 
"Hey guys, guess what is popular now? Tablet gaming! So I've this great idea, gather round and listen..."

The casual market as you have said aren't going to buy into the PS4/720, but the industry needs to learn that the casual gamers are not a sustainable market and that games & consoles shouldn't be focused on them. 
The problem here is that the directors/executives have no idea what their market actually is. They would rather pump out the same crap time & time again instead of risking making a new, daring game even though that is what many core gamers would like to see. I'd rather play SotC then CoD 6,7,8 etc. 
If the competition died, MS and Sony wouldn't have any problems as most developers have shunned the wii. Publishers would be doing just as well/badly regardless of the existance of Nintendo as the Wii primarily deals in nintendo titles. 

For every WiiU sold, that makes developers think gamers are into gimmicks rather then gameplay. To hell with that. I don't want a single publisher thinking that I'll pay twice for the same game, or buy a new console to play a game I can already play on my xbox. 



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Mr Khan on 16 June 2012
Jay520 said:
Mr Khan said:
Jay520 said:
Mr Khan said:
oniyide said:
considering that GTA4 is still in the top 100 i think they could do just fine without Wii U

Yes, but generally businesses like to strive for more when they're not blinded by horrendous bias.


You blame bias for their skepticism?

Possibly. Considering this is a low-risk endeavor (we know from the Darksiders guys that it's very easy to port a 360 version to Wii U, codewise) what else could it be? Unless they assume their audience is so petty as to disparage them for simply putting core games on Wii U in the first place, but Take Two has some clear problem with Nintendo even moreso than other third parties.


So, a grudge or some other sort of emotional drive?

Potentially. Rockstar has some reason for a grudge (former association with Nintendo back when they were known as DMA Design or something), but why that would extend up to Take Two as a whole, i don't know...



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

happydolphin on 16 June 2012

@Jay/Khan. Yes, Khan, it must be that they don't want to have their core business tainted with Nintendo. I can't see any other reason.

Money, not an issue, they would only gain.

Complexity. Clearly not an issue from what we know this far.

@Jay. It's an anti-Nintendo sentiment, and that ultimately translates, in this case, to them trying to preserve their franchise from the evil "Kiddy" taint of Nintendo, but ultimately they seem to not want to have Nintendo have any word/hand at their bread and butter. Either that, or their devs and managers are PS/360 fanboys.

That's the only way I can truly wrap my mind around this ordeal.
After all the wrapping my mind around this, all the Sony supporters telling us "Oh, it's a money thing" and crap like that, I really see it, there's absolutely no rational explanation to this behavior but some kind of stigma or emotional decision regarding Nintendo, rooted back in the SNES to 64 days, and piggybacking onto the Wii's family-friendly image.

Sad reality, sad we are too blind to see it, and sad that Nintendo seems unable to do anything about it except be patient and wait till these bosos get the shorter end of the stick, upon which time it should be the Wrath of Nintendo befalling them ruthlessly.



oniyide on 16 June 2012
SaviorX said:
fauzman said:
I think clearly most of the major devs are adopting a "wait and see" approach. If the console sells well, contrary to the majority of opinion on the net at the moment, then developers will bring games to it. Until that happens, they see it as being too risky or too much of an effort to make games designed to the tablet controllers with doubt hanging over the console. In the end, its up to whether Nintendo to make or break it. If they make the Wii U into a hit, similar to the Wii before it, then developers will flock to it.

Yet despite this theory, devs will still support the Playstation Vita in spite of poor hardware (and software) sales.


Who are these devs you're talking about?? Because outside of Ubi and Acti im not seeing these devs. the former supports everyone, funny enough. And Acti is just damn greedy and they support everyone as well.

Even if what you say is true(and it isnt) what is SOny doing that Ninty isnt?? Probably some favors on the side. 



oniyide on 16 June 2012
happydolphin said:
@Oniyide. I wasn't talking about Nintendo's core audience. Rather, I was referring to Take Two catering to Nintendo's audience and offering GTA5 to them. For example, CoD has a consumer base on the Wii, they built it. Take Two, refraining to do the same, are shooting themselves in the foot. Reason being, whether things improve from the Wii, or worst case remain the same, there is a potential for 1M+ sales of GTA on the Wii line, on that can be built to more numbers. That's what I was referring to.

You know my stance on the Nintendo/3rd party who's to blame issue, and you know I agree with you. So above was aimed at TTWO and how they are not building a market of their own for the GTA franchise on the Wii line, as Ubi and Acti are doing.

HTH


I agree with you, but i still dont blame them for their reluctance. The thing is the audience IS on the other systems where most people would buy it anyway, fact. Even if the same minigame, Carnival crowd playing people buy into the Wii U will they care about GTA?? No they wouldnt, thats not their thing, just like the PS3 crowd and MS(to a lesser extent) dont care about those minigame collections. ANd the people who do care about it have the systems to run it. I DO think they should port it. But i could see why they wouldnt want to and im not mad at them.



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happydolphin on 16 June 2012

I think all this is rooted in Yamauchi's approach to 3rd parties, and the stigma just never left...

Nintendo has been doing everything to reverse the trend, from offering a decent console (WiiU), giving it a "core" controller, and securing exclusive core content. True these are small steps, but from this vantage point the task of reversing the stigma seems insurmountable, and maybe even impossible. Maybe Nintendo should offer an official apology to 3rd parties for it's attitude in the past? Idk...



happydolphin on 16 June 2012

Oni, if that were true, how do you explain 1M+ sales for CoD games? Also, you're not taking into account that kids grow up, and after a few years of playing carnival games, maybe they'll want to try something new. You're saying this is business, then why are you defending non business-like mentalities??



oniyide on 16 June 2012
mike_intellivision said:
Deoz said:
oniyide said:
mike_intellivision said:
Nintendo should ever buy Take 2 or pull its development kit.

Carnival Games kept Take Two afloat ... But the IP has been over saturated and is not something that will do well. Plus, since it holds all the kiddie licensees, Take Two needs Nintendo more than the per way around to push its Nick Jr. games. If it could not sell them to Nntendo families, it could lose like it did with the MLB license.

(Of course, Nintendo would not take the risk because it could backfire.

Mike from Morgantown


oversaturated?? There were only 3 damn games on Wii and one of them was a spinoff. People just lost interest

I dont think he refers to only the wii, the ip has been exposed to handhelds and 360 with realy close yearly releases.


Exactly.  I count three in Wii, two on DS, one on Kinect, and one on 3DS.  Plus, for the wii, three is reaching the saturation point.

I didnt know about the other DS on or 3ds one. That is a bit much, my bad



the_dengle on 16 June 2012
Mazty said:

It's everything that is wrong with gaming. It's gimmick gaming gone wild. 
"Hey guys, guess what is popular now? Tablet gaming! So I've this great idea, gather round and listen..."

The casual market as you have said aren't going to buy into the PS4/720, but the industry needs to learn that the casual gamers are not a sustainable market and that games & consoles shouldn't be focused on them. 
The problem here is that the directors/executives have no idea what their market actually is. They would rather pump out the same crap time & time again instead of risking making a new, daring game even though that is what many core gamers would like to see. I'd rather play SotC then CoD 6,7,8 etc. 
If the competition died, MS and Sony wouldn't have any problems as most developers have shunned the wii. Publishers would be doing just as well/badly regardless of the existance of Nintendo as the Wii primarily deals in nintendo titles. 

For every WiiU sold, that makes developers think gamers are into gimmicks rather then gameplay. To hell with that. I don't want a single publisher thinking that I'll pay twice for the same game, or buy a new console to play a game I can already play on my xbox. 

Sounds like standard "core" gamer elitism to me. The Wii was a huge success. Was there any shortage of "core" games on the PS3 or 360 because of the Wii's success? You still got Call of Duty, God of War, GTA, Infamous, Halo, Gears, Uncharted, Resident Evil, Elder Scrolls -- all the "hardcore" games you could ask for and more, new IPs and old.

The "casual" market IS sustainable. That's why games like Wii Fit (/Plus), Wii Sports (/Resort), Wii Party, and Just Dance have such tremendous legs.



TheKingofRedLions on 16 June 2012
Conegamer said:
Mazty said:
Conegamer said:
Mazty said:
Khuutra said:
Mazty said:

Hum, if we take inflation into account and the spread of wealth, I think I would be happy to say the WiiU will sell 25%+ slower then PS3, 360 & the Wii. I'd be reluctant to put any figures on it but I would say around the ~20 million unit mark (maybe ~30 if they have some surpises lined up) is where I expect the wiiu to begin to frazzle out. 

However, to boost sales what Nintendo may do is either discontinue the wii (unlikely) or bomb the WiiU price by so much the Wii becomes irrelevant, as they did with the DS by bombing the 3DS price (v. likey).  Still though, the Wii sales are so low nowadays would any sort of price drop be enough? I don't think it would, but it would help it hit maybe ~40 million units? And I'm being very charitable there. 

What are your predictions on sales?

Now you know that ain't cricket. You said it would make the Dreamcast look like a success, which means it would need to fizzle out at less than ~11 million units.

Now do you want to discard that as hyperbole, or do you want to make a bet based on those numbers?

Direct numbers, no, relative numbers, sure, why not. 

However I'm willing to admit that any guess, whether it's optimisitc or pessimistic, will be based a lot on luck as there are still a few unknowns. For example, if Nintendo slash it's price, would that help? Could they afford to do so? More so what happens (and I wouldn't be surprised at this) if MS or Sony announce their next console a few months before the WiiU? A few flashy next-gen graphics games would beat the crap out of the WiiU but are the competition at such a stage with their hardware?

I'd be more confident on numbers closer to the release date.

Still though I'm interested in hearing how you think it's sales life span will go.

Using one year as 12 months, and assuming 2 scenarios:

1. £220/$269 launch, bundled with NintendoLand, NSMBU out before Christmas

2. £300+ launch, not bundled, NSMBU out after Christmas:

Y1- 11mil/8mil

Y2- 15mil/11mil

Y3- 20mil/17mil

Y4- 18mil/14mil

Y5- 16mil/10mil

Y6- 13mil/8mil

After- 22mil/ 15mil

Total- 115mil/83mil

 

The first is the best-case scenario, the second is the worst-case scenario (IMO, though the first year or two may have a mil or less, made up for in later years). People are underselling it. Even the PS3, which launched 2 years late here and more than the price of the Wii and the 360 put together, has sold 65mil, and with no real competition in its first year, I imagine it'll cement itself in Japan like the 3DS, and have a good foothold in America also. 

No way will it fall below the Dreamcast. A little stock fluctuation means nothing; the same thing happened with the 3DS, but it shot up post-launch.

The thing is you have to consider two major factors:

1) The wii market has dried up. It is selling few units now, and on top of that a lot of wii owners that I know (anecdotal I know but a shared view) are not core gamers and now are on their ipod/phone/pad gaming. These people move to the next big thing and the wii is the past; apple & android are the future. 
2)Core gamers are unimpressed due to the line up consisting of a lot of games that are already out on existing consoles, or will be multiplatform. Why spend £200-£300 + £40 when you can just spend £40 and play it on your console online with your pre-existing friend network?

I can't see the WiiU ever hitting 80 million. 60 million tops and I'm being incredibly optimistic there. 

1. The Wii market has dried up because 100,000,000 Wiis (nearly) have been sold. And the 3DS shows that there's a market for dedicated handhelds, so there's more than a market for a home console.

2. Who are 'Core gamers' anyway? The same people who doubted the success of the Wii? The analysts who said the Wii would sell less than the GC and that the PS3 would sell 200,000,000 units before either were launched? People like to buy the new things, and Nintendo games, obviously. And if it is more powerful, they'll be some great exclusives on the system, and devs will push for a new generation soon. The online market is a very small one, what you want is something that stands out to the average consumer, and the tablet controller does that.

The one thing you should not do is doubt Nintendo. This