"Though it's likely, we aren't sure if the Wii U will be a year ahead. The PS4 could be announced at TGS with a release date of Q1/Q2 next year, there have been rumours about Sony wanting to get it out before Microsoft. And hell, even nextbox could be revealed in a couple days. But I guess it is unlikely, so that's a good point."
More likely the PS4/720 release holiday of 2013. Like...90% more likely.
Also, the Wii U is already getting more 3rd party support than the Wii ever got through ports from the PS360. If any of these games see moderate success, then 3rd parties will see the Wii U as a viable console for 3rd parties.
"Or if we see a huge push towards digital distribution, we'll see all the costs that go towards manufacturing and distributing physical copies, go towards the games budget instead, which will make up for the added costs to some extent. Also, all 3 are tyring hard to make developer-friendly consoles, which means it's easier and quicker to create games and port them, this lowers costs as developers don't need to work on games for as long."
Interesting that you mention digital distribution where that is where most of the cheaper titles go (i.e. Games that the Wii U will be able to run) With the push towards digital, no doubt we'll see a big breakthrough with smaller and medium developers. And no doubt these games won't be graphical powerhouses, at least not so much that they won't run on the Wii U.
And even with the bigger developers. Most are already concerned with rising development costs. Not manufacturing costs, but creating all the lighting, textures, and other stuff. This takes a lot of time AND money. The Wii U will be more powerful than the PS360. That means it's limit will be fairly past Uncharted 3 or Gears of War 3. That will be more than enough power for like 90% of developers.
Most aren't going to bother pushing their games so much that the Wii U won't be able to handle them. You say consoles will be more developer friendly & digital will cut down on costs, but that doesn't change the fact that the faster, cheaper, & less powerful game will be extremely more attractive than making one that's so impressive that the Wii U can't run it. Again, these would be games more impressive than Uncharted 3. Most developers simply aren't looking to be that technically impressive.
You think COD's gonna push graphics on the PS4 / 720? I doubt it. It will probably only have modest graphics, like this gen. And as such, it'll probably be able to run on the Wii U. I expect to see most developers following this route.
"That scenario considered, it still wouldn't be enough for the Wii U to come 2nd or 1st imo, unless one of the others fail. "
It would be enough to get strong 3rd party support. Which disproves half of your argument.