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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Wii U will be in 3rd place next gen

 

Andre is

Absolutely spot on 34 10.93%
 
Probably right 56 18.01%
 
Probably wrong 122 39.23%
 
Absolutely crazy 99 31.83%
 
Total:311
mike_intellivision on 04 June 2012
VGKing said:
mike_intellivision said:
Once we have details on the other systems, we can make fair assessments.

We know next to nothing, to be honest, about the WiiU. We know even less about the Xbox 720 and PS 4 -- except we think that Durango and Orbis are in development.

We do know that some analysts are predicting failure for Nintendo and think it should go third party, even though it sold 95m consoles this generation and that strategy has not served Sega very well.

We do know that people have freaked out about Nintendo taking its first loss while all but ignoring Siny's worse financial record.

We do know that Microsoft has a tough time selling in Japan and is about to launch an integrated OS that will change Windows fundamentally -- something that may not be well accepted by (business) users [my opinion].

Predicting anything at this point is folly or wishful thinking. It is often done because someone wants something to happen or so someone is not wise enough to think things through.

By this point next week, we be able to make much more informed decisions about the WiiU.

We probably ought to wait until then if we wish to have a reasoned, intelligent discussion.

Mike from Morgantown

1. We KNOW PS4 and 720 are in development. It's just common sense.

2. No one is ignoring Sony's financial troubles. The reason they freaked out over Nintendo is because they are a pure gaming company. The thing about them going 3rd party, yeah those are exaggeratins. Dont' take these analysts too seriously.

3. Xbox 360 sales in Japan are irrelvant. Why bring it up?

I want to address these points (and since my original comments are needed for the post to make sense, I left them in there).

1. I concede that is highly probably that the next Sony and Microsoft systems are in development. However, I used the conditional expression considering that last week, when incomplete news of Sony's streaming deal came through, there was speculation that there would be no PS4.

2. Sony's financial troubles are important because it now must treat video games as a profit center. That means it can't sell systems at a huge loss (like the original PS3, even with the $500-$600 USD price tag). It can't buy too many third party exclusives as it as in the past. It can't overindulge technology (as it did with the PS3, using all of its video game reserves). That potentially means a very different path for Sony. In other words, its competative position has changed.

3. When you are talking about place in the next generation, if you are talking from a global perspective, then sales in all three major markets are relavent.  In other words, Microsoft will have to either figure out a way to sell more consoles in Japan or sell more in other markets (as it did with the origial 360).

I do not think it impossible for Nintendo to finish third in sales in the next generation. It happened with the Gamecube.  But I do think it is impossible to predict it now.  My purpose was only to points for consideration that seemed to be ignored in the original analysis which focused only on Nintendo and technology.

 

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

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badgenome on 04 June 2012

This is a bold prediction. Are we assuming that a wild Apple won't appear and knock Wii U into fourth place?



zgamer5 on 04 June 2012

i dont see that happening, and if it does then the 3 consoles would be so cole in the numbers that it woudnt really matters. 



Being in 3rd place never felt so good

SunofKratos on 04 June 2012
Andrespetmonkey said:

Let's look at the last 16 years of Nintendo's history, what have been it's greatest successes? The Wii, the DS and arguably now that sales have taken off, the 3DS. What do these platforms have in common? A great gimmick and a low price. The Wii is the least technologically advanced console of this gen by a wide margin, but thanks to being the first company to put motion controls in the mainstream and also being the cheapest console of the 3, it's leading in marketshare. The DS was well behind the PSP in power, but also well behind in price and it sported dual screens, something brand new to gaming, so it's achieved well over double the sales the PSP achieved. The 3DS is also lacking in the power department, especially when compared to it's closest rival, but it's also got 3D without glasses - a great gimmick, and after the massive $80 price cut, a low price. 

What happens when a Nintendo console doesn't have a great gimmick and a low price? Well, Nintendo 64 and Gamecube happened, selling just over 50 million units combined; not terrible, but that's nothing compared to what any current gen console has accomplished. I think the Wii U will go down the same road. If the Wii U is going to be similar to Durango and Orbis in terms of hardware capabilities, then it loses the first major selling point it needs, the low price. Now, the Wii U does have one major feature seperating it from the other 2 consoles, the tablet controller, but it won't be enough. Motion controls were brand new when the Wii came out, dual screens were brand new when the DS came out and 3D without glasses was brand new when the 3DS came out. Tablet gaming, however, is something casuals have been doing for the last 4 years, and it's only going to get bigger. The Wii U's gimmick isn't anything new, it isn't as innovative as it's predecessors gimmick, so the Wii U loses the second major selling point of Nintendos greatest successes.

What if Nintendo go for a low price point for the Wii U? Now it not only has a gimmick that won't move units, but it's also lacking third party support. It has only it's first party software and die-hard Nintendo fans to rely on, and there are only so many Rolstoppables and NintendoPies out there, enough to make the Wii U a decent success, but not enough to truly compete with rival platforms. 

Summary: 

Low price = less power = no 3rd party support aswell as lackluster gimmick

High price = more power = loses major selling point of Ninty systems aswell as having a lackluster gimmick, bad sales could possibly lead to the loss of 3rd party support aswell

Am I missing something? And I wrong about the tablet controller? I'd like to hear your opinions.

 

 

 

Well i must agree. Ive always said the reason why the wii get so popular where the price, the fact that it releases first and that it have motion controls (which were new five years ago)

Whyle its very difficult to say how well PS4 and X Box next will do if we dont know what they have up their sleeves i really must say i really cant see what so special about the Wii U. Some will say the Tablet controller is innovative but i cant agree on that point.

Sure some will say Nintendo has Mario, Mario Kart and so on but lets not forget the Game Cube and Nintendo 64 has them too. So only having some Mario Party and some other Mario/Zelda Stuff doesnt automatically mean first place.

I believe the Wii U will be second next gen .



theARTIST0017 on 04 June 2012
Andrespetmonkey said:
freebs2 said:
You're missing Gamboy, Gameboy Advance NES, SNES all best selling systems in their times.

The only thing I agree with in you argument is the price point, Nintendo should have a lower price point than competitors, because undeniably a large share of Nintendo the userbase is made by kids.
Do you really think 3DS is selling well because of 3D? :/

I did intentionally leave out systems before the fifth gen, since I think console game is much closer to post-that era than to pre-that era. 

This is no concrete opinion of mine and is subject to change, a lot of you make very good points.

What are you saying? So basically you are making an argument that even you yourself have doubts in yourself. Besides that, what you are doing is predicting the Wii U's "fate". I find that interesting since you know almost close to nothiing about it's first party games, and nothing about 720 and PS4. NOW if you knew abonut the PS4 and whatnot, you could make a more legitimate argument.



NINTENDO

nintendo forever . . .

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Andrespetmonkey on 07 June 2012
theARTIST0017 said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
I did intentionally leave out systems before the fifth gen, since I think console game is much closer to post-that era than to pre-that era. 

This is no concrete opinion of mine and is subject to change, a lot of you make very good points.

What are you saying? So basically you are making an argument that even you yourself have doubts in yourself. Besides that, what you are doing is predicting the Wii U's "fate". I find that interesting since you know almost close to nothiing about it's first party games, and nothing about 720 and PS4. NOW if you knew abonut the PS4 and whatnot, you could make a more legitimate argument.

I'm presenting a few arguments but I'm open to accepting others. Why is that a bad thing? This is how I saw things, but I wanted to get some other views on it as well, in fact I specifically asked people to point out what was wrong with my arguments. My arguments don't really rely on first party titles, but that could be a flaw itself as nintendo systems do tend to rely heavily on first party titles as I now realise. But I'm still not sold on the Wii U "beating" Durango and Orbis due to it's first party alone.



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dark_gh0st_b0y on 07 June 2012
PDF said:
If the WiiU is comparable to the rest of the next gen consoles I think they will be in a very good position, coming off of the Wii market share. They would make a very good argument to own their console, ninty exclusives, new intuitive controller, and 3rd party support.

WiiU is weak compared to the rest of the next gen consoles, its a much harder argument. Tablet-like controller doesn't turn heads like motion control. Lack of 3rd parties turn away your average gamer like me. I think they will be in 3rd if their machine cannot keep up.

this



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

Juma009 on 07 June 2012

Do we even know if there will be 3 consoles competing next generation? NO.
I am here to point out the positives the Wii U has.

1. It's the successor to the most successful console this generation, moving on, It's NINTENDO, a trusted family name, as long as there are 9-13 year olds in the world, Nintendo has a target audience, Parents do prefer to see little Tommy playing Mario in their living room than Killing Arabs in COD games.

2. Tablets are huge right now, Nintendo is offering one that will allow you to play worldwide recognized franchises such as Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Mario Party for a price that most of us can assume will be cheaper than an Ipad.

Casual gaming is not to be underestimated anymore, do you guys really believe that Wii Fit U will not be a system seller, please understand something, Nintendo isn't just targeting us young adults Nintendo fans, they are targeting EVERYBODY, they want you to enjoy Zelda, while your little brother plays Mario Kart, your parents then use the Wii Fit U and your sister plays just Dance 4 and that Karaoke thing.

Nintendo will have what it appears to be a 2 year advantage on the competition, I say 2 years because if Sony and Microsoft were to release a new system within the next 12 months they would have announced it in E3 (and break some of the Wii U hype) heck, it wouldn't surprise me that they are waiting to see how good the Wii U does that first year so they can look for ways to imitate the GamePad controller. now thats about 2 holidays seasons that Wii U will be the only new gadget available, a big lead if you ask me, knowing all the preteen kids, you think they wont be asking parents, grandparents, Uncles and god knows who else for one? then you got the Nintendo loyalists who will be buying it the first months.

Nintendo still has by far the best licenses. I play other systems games also (buy them pre owned of course, I cant betray Nintendo by giving my money directly to Microsoft nor Sony, I prefer GameStop to keep it lol) and I admit Halo are getting a little milked there, the 360 saw 6 different Halos, thats more entries than any License Nintendo has used in a single console, 4 Gears of War, 3 God of Wars, 3 Uncharteds, so its safe to say the competitors are pushing their best Licenses to the max to stay competitive. Nintendo will have Super Mario Bros, Zelda, Mario (galaxy format), Metroid, Fire Emblem, Pikmin, Paper Mario, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Super Smash Bros, Donkey Kong, Star Fox, Mario Party, WiiFit U, so thats about 13-4 franchises that cover genres such as Adventure, RPG, racing, fighting, casual, flying and strategy. so the games are there. and games sell systems.



PlaystaionGamer on 07 June 2012

i dont think we can judge just yet.. untill i know what Microsoft & Sony are bringing with the hardware/ price & launch window games.

i dont know if Ninendo will have the run away successes it had with the Wii or not. it would be stupid for anyone to think just because the Wii is big the WiiU will be BUT PS1 was mazzive and due to Sony being smart the PS2 took staright from that and was even bigger! if Sony hadnt Gone with Blu-ray this gen to take the price down then the PS3 would probs be around the 100mil mark about now and would have been massive with the Wii. it all depends on how nintendo handle the next gen transfer over.

again i dont know obviously but the gaming market is fragmented alot this gen.. Next Gen i expect it too close up alot. i think only 2 will be big.

 

We also could have another big problem on our hands this gen approaching. at 1 point or another Apple WILL create a TV. im guessing this Tv will have an App - Store.. and just like The iphone/ipad stores EA/Ubi/Act will put there games on there... this is a TV.. it will have there full release games on that TV not just scaled down versions. IF Apple say price new release games at £25 while the WiiU/Xbox/PS4 games are £40 there is a problem. The Apple TV will be big, it will take alot for the big 3 to keep peaple interested in there systems. 

(sorry had to write this quick at work.)



theARTIST0017 on 07 June 2012
Andrespetmonkey said:
theARTIST0017 said:
Andrespetmonkey said:
I did intentionally leave out systems before the fifth gen, since I think console game is much closer to post-that era than to pre-that era. 

This is no concrete opinion of mine and is subject to change, a lot of you make very good points.

What are you saying? So basically you are making an argument that even you yourself have doubts in yourself. Besides that, what you are doing is predicting the Wii U's "fate". I find that interesting since you know almost close to nothiing about it's first party games, and nothing about 720 and PS4. NOW if you knew abonut the PS4 and whatnot, you could make a more legitimate argument.

I'm presenting a few arguments but I'm open to accepting others. Why is that a bad thing? This is how I saw things, but I wanted to get some other views on it as well, in fact I specifically asked people to point out what was wrong with my arguments. My arguments don't really rely on first party titles, but that could be a flaw itself as nintendo systems do tend to rely heavily on first party titles as I now realise. But I'm still not sold on the Wii U "beating" Durango and Orbis due to it's first party alone.

What is so good about Durango and Orbis?



NINTENDO

nintendo forever . . .