The Wii U will be in 3rd place next gen

[mike_intellivision]

VGKing said:

mike_intellivision said:
Once we have details on the other systems, we can make fair assessments.

We know next to nothing, to be honest, about the WiiU. We know even less about the Xbox 720 and PS 4 -- except we think that Durango and Orbis are in development.

We do know that some analysts are predicting failure for Nintendo and think it should go third party, even though it sold 95m consoles this generation and that strategy has not served Sega very well.

We do know that people have freaked out about Nintendo taking its first loss while all but ignoring Siny's worse financial record.

We do know that Microsoft has a tough time selling in Japan and is about to launch an integrated OS that will change Windows fundamentally -- something that may not be well accepted by (business) users [my opinion].

Predicting anything at this point is folly or wishful thinking. It is often done because someone wants something to happen or so someone is not wise enough to think things through.

By this point next week, we be able to make much more informed decisions about the WiiU.

We probably ought to wait until then if we wish to have a reasoned, intelligent discussion.

Mike from Morgantown

1. We KNOW PS4 and 720 are in development. It's just common sense.

2. No one is ignoring Sony's financial troubles. The reason they freaked out over Nintendo is because they are a pure gaming company. The thing about them going 3rd party, yeah those are exaggeratins. Dont' take these analysts too seriously.

3. Xbox 360 sales in Japan are irrelvant. Why bring it up?

I want to address these points (and since my original comments are needed for the post to make sense, I left them in there).

1. I concede that is highly probably that the next Sony and Microsoft systems are in development. However, I used the conditional expression considering that last week, when incomplete news of Sony's streaming deal came through, there was speculation that there would be no PS4.

2. Sony's financial troubles are important because it now must treat video games as a profit center. That means it can't sell systems at a huge loss (like the original PS3, even with the $500-$600 USD price tag). It can't buy too many third party exclusives as it as in the past. It can't overindulge technology (as it did with the PS3, using all of its video game reserves). That potentially means a very different path for Sony. In other words, its competative position has changed.

3. When you are talking about place in the next generation, if you are talking from a global perspective, then sales in all three major markets are relavent.  In other words, Microsoft will have to either figure out a way to sell more consoles in Japan or sell more in other markets (as it did with the origial 360).

I do not think it impossible for Nintendo to finish third in sales in the next generation. It happened with the Gamecube.  But I do think it is impossible to predict it now.  My purpose was only to points for consideration that seemed to be ignored in the original analysis which focused only on Nintendo and technology.

 

Mike from Morgantown