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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: NSMB2 will outsell the top 10 PSV games shown off at E3 2012 combined

 

Will this prediction become true?

Yes, definitely. 244 53.39%
 
Probably. 103 22.54%
 
Maybe. Maybe not. 42 9.19%
 
Unlikely. 33 7.22%
 
Impossible. 35 7.66%
 
Total:457
Areym on 12 May 2012
miz1q2w3e said:
Areym said:
Well, look you at you being all dangerous. Such a high risk prediction.

It's sad when even PS fans think that.


Well, its no lie tha Mario games are juggernauts. PSV has not hit its stride yet, thus a lot of its games will not sell as much as they deserve to

I'm just being realistic, but it won't stop be from snatching a Vita this summer. I'm just waiting after e3 for any Vita price/model/etc reveals.



"Trick shot? The trick is NOT to get shot." - Lucian

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logic56 on 12 May 2012
Jay520 said:
logic56 said:
Jay520 said:
logic56 said:

1.) New Super Mario bros wii sold  over 25 million units more than the top 5 ps3 exclusives games combined  and it meant absolutely fuck all so why the hell would this be any different? other than a bunch of Nintendo fans trying their hardest to feel important

2.) thread translation "see we are can sell lots o gamez though, guys.....guys"

3.) and they are about as much competitors with each other as the PS3 is to the wii, remember that console?? the one Nintendo fans want people to believe/care was the market leader this gen, I know I hardly remember it either, but if memory serves me right it sold over 30 million units more than ps3 with it's top 10 games that probable sold more than the top 50 ps3 games, and on a scale of zero to no one guess how much it mattered?


1.) That's a very bad comparison. For one, he said 10 games, not 5. That's double the difference. Secondly, the PS3's best selling games are NOT exclusives, so by you including only exclusives, you are leaving out the PS3's biggest sellers. Rol is talking about the PSV's best sellers, period, not just exclusives. So now go do your comparison again with ten (not five) of the PS3's best sellers (not best selling exclusives).

2.) I'm not sure what you mean here. This is a sales website, so it's only natural that there will be topics about sales.

3.) Yes, the 3DS & Vita are direct competitors. The 3DS appeals to casual gamers, but it appeals to hardcore gamers, the Vita's target demographic.

I deleted the rest of your post because you really started to dwell off into irrelevancy.

1.) and it would still mean NOTHING, that's the point

2.) I never commented on that, in fact I agreed with him if anyone is capable of reading on this site, my post simply highlighted the fact that it doesn't matter, like how Poland Spring sells more water than Movado sells watches

3.) yeah hardcore gamers who are totally gonna be the people buying all those Mario games


1.) Yeah, it would mean that the top 10 PS3 games DID outsell NSMB. That's good. In the PSV's case, Rols making the claim that the top 10 PSV games won't outsell NSMB2. That is bad. Even the top 10 PSP titles outsold the best selling DS title, by a very big margin. So if the PSV can't do what the PSP did easily, there will be a problem.

2.) "capable of reading" huh? Lol okay. You said " thread translation 'see we are can sell lots o gamez though, guys.....guys' " . As if you were mocking the thread. If not, then sorry for misinterpreting it.

3.) I never said hardcore gamers would buy those Mario games. I didn't even imply it. You must have had a reading error, which is weird for you considering your recent comment about people having trouble reading. Anyway, a good example of a game on the 3DS that appeals to the PSV's demographic: Monster Hunter.

1.) problem for who??

2.) page 9

3.) reads thread title.....so wtf are you talking about again? are we on the same page, I'm lost now, also fun fact, Call of Duty was on the wii



Jay520 on 12 May 2012

@ Logic

1.) Sony

2.) Okay

3.) I'm talking about what you JUST said. I said the 3DS & the Vita were direct competitors. You sarcasticly said "yeah hardcore gamers who are totally gonna be the people buying all those Mario games". I then said Mario is not the game that hardcore 3DS gamers are buying. I listed Monster Hunter as an example. Now, you're saying "CoD was on the Wii". To which I'd say is a valid point, however, CoD was 1.) inferior on the Wii and 2.) were on the PS360. The same doesn't apply with the PSV & 3DS since the PSV doesn't even have Monster Hunter. And if it does get it, it will be late. And it's unsure if it will be superior/inferior/similar to the 3DS version.



Gilgamesh on 12 May 2012
superchunk said:
Gilgamesh said:

Oh Rol you rapscallion. It's that time again where you make a thread and I disagree, we need to find something we both like, do you like beer or ac/dc?

Anyway your clearly wrong. NSMB sold 25 million and 28 million on the Wii and DS. Now even if it matches that number which is highly doubtful because really the sequel will not be much different from the orginal. Not to mention SMB2 on the NES only did like 10 million in sales, how's that going to convert to 20 or even 30 million on the 3DS!? also by the time NSMB2 get's a foothold in the market the PSVita will already be selling games like crazy and taking sales away from the 3DS. The 3DS to is not going to have higher hardware sales then the DS, I can see it having a completely different predecessor in 5 years time tops, way shorter then most Nintendo handhelds. Since the 3DS is so similar to the DS most people won't even bother upgrading, graphics don't matter much to Nintendo fans and I still don't think 3D is a big selling feature.

So with that I doubt the NSMB2 will hit anywhere close to 30 million, it'd be doing really good to hit 20 million. Now let's take a look at PSP's top 10 software. Doing some quick math the total of PSP's top 10 software is 42 million. Now this is the PSP and I know that's it's total games, but this is a handheld that had the most piracy on any console/handheld and could barely sell a AAA game because of it and it did 42 million. Cmon Rol!

Because I highly doubt NSM2 will hit 30 million like the others and I'm expecting 20 million tops from it, and the PSP's top 10 software totaled 42 million, not to mention this E3 has to be huge for Sony because of everything going on with the company this is the defining moment and they're relying on the PSVita big time, there not going to F*** this up, there's going to be some big games. So I believe the PSVitas top 10 E3 games will easily outsell NSMB2 and actually I'd like to counter your prediction, I'd say PSVita's top 5 games at E3 will outsell the NSMB2.

...Too bad we have to wait like 4 years...

1) SMB2 on NES simply doesn't compare to NSMB2. It NES was on same console and wasn't even same lineage of the game. If you're referring to the Japan version (true sequel), it wasn't released world wide. NSMB2 like NSBMWii is a new game on a new console. It will easily match its predeccesors as well as push 3DS to higher sales overall.

2) PSV will be the only handheld to do signifanctly worse than its predeccesor. 3DS will be successful 100m+ monster when its all said and done and NSMB2 is the first big game to propel those sales. That combined with eventual 3DSPro that will launch by next year... bam its off. PSV on the other hand should have been a phone.

3) He said PSV's top 10 games FROM THIS E3. Not overall. So you take the games that will be discussed and then launched after E3... pull out the top 10... and then compare. Considerign that the top ten OVERALL on PSP barely got over 40m.... PSV will have at most 1/2 the sales of PSP, so its top 10 from just this E3 stand no chance at getting up to 20m. No chance.

4) Yeah this long term prediction is gonna suck to wait for. Hopefully Rol will update the OP with all the games shown at E3.


1. Nothing to say I'll just be repeating myself.

2.  Your opinion, again nothing to say here will be just repeating myself.

3. Now to the part I wanna talk about. I know this, reread the last big paragraph I wrote. E3 is when the big games get announced I'm sure some of those 10 top games for the PSP was announced at E3. Once again this is a defining momemt for Sony, the whole companies been changed and gaming is now one of the three big pillars of the company. So far not much has been said as to what Sonys going to do and change about there gaming section, clearly something has to be done. This is where E3 will come in, as we know theres going to be many big new games announced and Sony is relying on the PSVita right now for profit. This should be a big E3 for Sony this year, it's there defning moment. If they mess it up I'll admit if they made a big mistake or not.



DélioPT on 12 May 2012

New Super Mario Bros. release was pretty much supported by DS Lite`s release which, with the success it found, helped sales of NSMB.

I think it will do very well, let`s hope it meets that projection!



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superchunk on 13 May 2012
Fusioncode said:


Resident Evil is one of the few franchises able to completely change and innovate.

Anyways. let me rephrase my post.

Games like NSMB2 sell extremely because people like playing the same games over and over again. It will sell 25 million easy and it required almost no thought or effort from Nintendo. It doesn't change or innovate yet people will still buy it in droves. On the other hand, Gravity looks to be fresh innovate probably what sell 2 million in it's lifetime. Just makes me sad is all.


SMB doesn't innovate huh?

So... SMB, SMB3, SM64, NSMB, NSMBWii, and SMG did nothing to innovate the series? Have you ever played Super Mario games?

SMB - single handidly defined a generation and platforming gaming.
SMB3 - completely new overworld and powerup usage. Defined future SMB 2D games.
M64 - single handidly defined 3 dimensional gameplay with a analog control stick.
NSMB - rebirth of the 2D series with many aditional  levels of gameplay and power ups
SMG - defined gravity based platforming 
NSBMWii - four player simultaneous gameplay

... funny part is, I'm only missing three main series mario games in that list too. I can't even think of another IP with similar innovation among such a long list of games in the series. Kinda one of the reasons Mario didn't go the way of Sonic, Crash, Mega Man, Mr Belmont, etc.... its one of the few that actually hasn't gotten stale and boring.

SMB games dominate all other games for the reason that they are insanely fun to anyone of any age and are very innovative.



BenVTrigger on 13 May 2012

Have to say I agree with you.

And that NSMB2 is gonna seriously move some 3DS hardware, especially if it comes out with a special edition bundle for the holidays.

Limited edition NSMB2 bundle with unique color / engraving over the holiday = $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$



NintendoPie on 13 May 2012

I'm obligated to agree with everything Rol says, so, yes, this'll happen.



Gilmour on 13 May 2012

Just imagine the impact of a holidays trio such as:

- Monster Hunter 4 (exclusive)
- New Super Mario Bros. 2 (exclusive)
- Pokemon Gen-6 (exclusive)

It would be madness.  Millions of 3DS sold during the holidays :P



Chark on 13 May 2012

NSMB had a saturation rate of 18.37% on the DS. Assuming there will be 25 million 3DS consoles by the end of the year, NSMB2 will sell 4,592,500 copies.

The Vita with an install base of 8 million at years end would require the 10 games to average 460k, requiring a saturation of 5.75% each. The current average software saturation rate of the Vita's current top 10 is 8.7% meaning that the 10 new games combined will sell 6,960,000.

For all of the possible factors that could effect this; such as NSMB2 having a saturation rate of 30%+, several giant titles hitting Vita, or a larger hardware base for Vita, it is really hard to tell. These number are just based on is all of these games came out in august. Lifetimes sales could be quite different, but it depends on the titles. NSMB2 will have legs and probably will 10+mil by the time its done. I'm going to have to go with an unlikely, but it all depends on those titles.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(