NSMB had a saturation rate of 18.37% on the DS. Assuming there will be 25 million 3DS consoles by the end of the year, NSMB2 will sell 4,592,500 copies.
The Vita with an install base of 8 million at years end would require the 10 games to average 460k, requiring a saturation of 5.75% each. The current average software saturation rate of the Vita's current top 10 is 8.7% meaning that the 10 new games combined will sell 6,960,000.
For all of the possible factors that could effect this; such as NSMB2 having a saturation rate of 30%+, several giant titles hitting Vita, or a larger hardware base for Vita, it is really hard to tell. These number are just based on is all of these games came out in august. Lifetimes sales could be quite different, but it depends on the titles. NSMB2 will have legs and probably will 10+mil by the time its done. I'm going to have to go with an unlikely, but it all depends on those titles.
Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(
