You still haven't said anything about my TKDR > DH2 prediction. Is it possible that you have come to your senses and agree with me now? . It's been almost an year.

Winter is gonna kill us all anyway. I might as well die during the summer.

Not gonna happen...you under-estimate the domestic decline TDKR is gonna see. 

I imagine it would be quite shameful for The Avengers to lose to a movie with 1/3 of  it's budget.

Not necessarily.

THG had some sort of "perfect storm"...no-one could have predicted what it did.

It did more in it's OW than many expected lifetime from it (before the tracking started suggesting otherwise a month before the films releas). 

The only movie that should be ashamed of anything this year is John Carter LOL

Decline caused by what? The lack of Joker? I've explained why this won't happen a thousand times. The ones who went to see TDK will go to see TDKR as well. The lack of Joker is just a slight inconvience,and that inconvience will be balanced out by the desire to see how the new villain performs.

I don't think TDKR will have a decline in it's domestic. I even think it will increase. And it will increase because it's the end of the trilogy. And that's a heavy factor. Look at DH2..even if DH1 basically sucked..DH2 still broke all our expectations,because of that end effect. Sure, TDKR won't have the same effect because the trilogy is much younger than the harry potter franchise,but the effect will be there. And there's another thing -> TDKR will look better than TDK because of much more IMAX footage.

Even if,let's say,the movie suffers a bit from the lack of Joker,that negative effect would be diminished by the fact that it's the end of the trilogy and huge IMAX theaters gross.

And then there is the overseas increase. There will be an increase for sure,but nobody can tell how big. I myself think it will be at least $200M.

It will be  close but I can clearly see how TDKR will slightly get passed DH2.

EDIT: And I forgot to mention about Nolan's increase in popularity due to Inception.

Mordred there is no way it is increasing domestic.

I expect a Star wars to Empire Strikes Back esque decline for it on the domestic end.

No matter how good a movie it is not as simple as a those who saw "A" will go & see "A-2". TDK didn't just open big but it had beastly legs...while it was a sequel to Batman Begins it didn't perform like one at all...if I remember correctly it even crossed BB's gross within 10 days. Something extraordinary happened there...it was a perfect storm. The movie behaved like a phenomenon. I don't think we'll be seeing that here again.

Your inception argument holds weight...an overseas increase could see it beat DH2 marginally. But I expect a domestic decline...should end up between $470-$500 Million.

Now the movie could be the best film ever & re-create a perfect storm making me completely wrong.

On the other hand it could be a spider-man 3 esque disaster (who really ever saw that coming?) & we could both be overshooting it by a lot.

With a sequel to such a phenomenon everything is up in the air.

BTw do you expect Avatar 2 to increase domestic?

Absolutely not o__0.

Avatar is one of those movies that should never have a sequel,just like Inception. Not only will it gross much less than the first because the audience have gotten over the avatar craze,but I bet it will be considerably worse than the first.

And yeah..maybe you're right about TDKR. I get too ahead of myself sometimes..

Forget about The Avengers and TDKR and give me Man of Steel and Captain America 2 already.