From PS Blogcast. I've played a few levels, nice platformer splashed with some Okami ink. Short quick levels with increasing difficulty. I'll need to write a review on it.

Id give it 6.5 million.

The current prediction is 6.25 million not 6.5m. Applying 2011 percentages to the 3DS, like I did with the Vita, yields 12 million more sales for 3DS. So closer to 29 million for 3DS by end of year, making it more like 82% 3DS, 18% Vita.

Probably, but that's also why I bottomed it out at 5 million...believe me...there would have been takers.

And there was in the comments, against all logic.

Oh, that's what I actually think it will end up. In my OP you can see my edit portion explaining a few factors that could have a dramatic change in Vita's sales this year. Given that its current sales are low, a simple boost could have dramatic results. Though the 3DS is kind of a unique situation because of the price cut, if you were to apply this prediction method during this point in the 3DS sales life you would have pretty abysmal results as well. Essentially the average hardware sales percentages are not very reflective of what an individual hardware's will actually be.

There are so many ways a price cut can be avoided. Software releases. Bundle incentives, even a temporary holiday price cut.

I came up with an interesting concept that involved an exclusive Call of Duty game releasing during the holidays that would be free during the month of December for CoD Elite subscribers. Essentially low cost via digital distribution, huge PR stunt, bolster Elite membership numbers, and firmly stock Vita with CoD fan base to ensure profitable leg sales from word of mouth/popularity of the game as well as massive potential for a future game most likely one year later during the holidays. Obvious benefits for Activision, obvious benefits for PlayStation. The CoD fan base is huge and the incentive for a free game fully supported by Activision would draw plenty of people to buy a Vita. Having this as an E3 announcement will keep sales up all through to the rest of the year. Mix that with a holiday bundle and good luck getting a Vita in December.

A price cut is not in Sony's best interests. I still believe it was a big mistake for Nintendo to do it, a temporary holiday price cut would have been a smarter move. Then again releasing the console at $200 should have been their plan from the start.

The rate it's going it's going to struggle to hit 3-4 million never mind 9-10 million.

That's a very optimist scenario, but it's activision, they will focus more in the homeconsoles version than handheld, it's safer and ensure more profit. I see the next CoD on vita togheter with consoles, but nothing astounding from PR outside " For the frist time CoD on the palm of your hands with 2 sticks". I dont think it will be enough to move their fans to the mobile market. Would be a million seller for sure, but it wont boost hardware abruptly. They need a LOT more software outside of niche games tough, i agree on that.

I consider the price cut their most viable option in holidays if ther's no big hits for holiday seasons announced at e3 or tgs.

3 Million? That would mean that Sony would make near no money this year on their PSV... might be true. ;P

In all seriousness it'll go above 3 Million, for sure.

It'll be lucky to reach 3 million in June. April is going to be the worst month for it, nothing worth noticing this month. May has Mortal Kombat and Resistance in America and Europe, but as far as Japan goes it'll struggle there until mid-June.

Overall, sales will be slow reaching to 3 million as it's still edging towards 2 million right now. Reason I say this because it sold 73k this week and is at 1,836,206. Nothing for the next few weeks are going to increase it at all and will continue to fall or stable at 60k with luck. For it to sell 2 million this month, it has to sell 164k in the next three or four weeks worldwide.

Back to my 3 million, there are note worthy releases in Japan, but it won't help in the long run. It'll increase sales, but only for the month. America sees a somewhat similar fate with Gravity Rush(don't know if LittleBigPlanet or any other title will release in June as well).